CBS/YouGov: Clinton and Trump close in IA/OH/MI (user search)
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  CBS/YouGov: Clinton and Trump close in IA/OH/MI (search mode)
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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Clinton and Trump close in IA/OH/MI  (Read 3597 times)
Fusionmunster
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« on: July 17, 2016, 09:57:25 AM »

The Michigan poll is junk, Clinton has a wider lead there

Ohio finally looks a little encouraging

Iowa looks like a tough one for Team Blue because every poll is in the margin of error there so they all can't be wrong

If I'm remembering right, Iowa polling in 2012 was also quite close. Obama still won it by 6.
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Fusionmunster
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Posts: 2,483


« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2016, 10:00:50 AM »
« Edited: July 17, 2016, 10:04:50 AM by Fusionmunster »

The Michigan poll is junk, Clinton has a wider lead there

Ohio finally looks a little encouraging

Iowa looks like a tough one for Team Blue because every poll is in the margin of error there so they all can't be wrong

If I'm remembering right, Iowa polling in 2012 was also quite close. Obama still won it by 6.

Iowa polling in 2014 was also quite close. Ernst still won it by 8.

Midterm vs Presidential.

Edit: Also, Yougov is terrible at polling Iowa. There last Iowa poll in 2014 had Braley up +1.
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Fusionmunster
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Posts: 2,483


« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2016, 10:12:00 AM »

There are 3 recent polls now for MI, all showing only Clinton+3.

She probably leads by a bigger margin than that, but it's a troubling trend for her.

One of which is Gravis, the other from I assume Morning Consult. Neither of which is reputable. Yougov really isn't either. I'm really not sure if your concern trolling at this point.
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Fusionmunster
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Posts: 2,483


« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2016, 10:21:02 AM »

Tump can only manage to get 38-42% of the vote in most polling. He's headed for double digit loses in all these states. Clinton probably gets 56-58% in Ohio if these trends keep up.

I mean, she is outspending him 50-1 in swing states. She "should" be ahead by 20 points, lol.

She's ahead by decent margins when you look at reputable pollsters. If you wanna put your hope in Yougov though, feel free.
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