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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 59684 times)
cinyc
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« on: July 18, 2016, 12:17:38 am »

Harper Polling (Internal for Senate Campaign of Republican Dan Carter)
Clinton 43%
Trump 43%

July 5-6; 600 RV; Unknown MOE

It's a Republican internal, so definitely salt to taste and don't put it in the database.  I don't believe it, but Quinnipiac had CT at a relatively close (for CT) 45-38 Clinton back in June.

Do we have a megathread for publicly released internals somewhere?  We probably should.  They may be the only polls we get for some of the less polled states.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2016, 12:33:20 am by Likely Voter »Logged
Crumpets
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« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2016, 12:22:30 am »

I think Trump should spend a great deal of money here to try to flip it.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2016, 12:23:56 am »

Yeah, 43% is about what Trump will get on election day in CT.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #3 on: July 18, 2016, 12:24:53 am »

Quote
Donald Trump may be winning converts from an unlikely source — Democrats — a new unpublished poll shows.

And I have an unpublished poll showing Hillary winning Alabama.
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: July 18, 2016, 12:31:23 am »

Sure, and Clinton is only down 5 in KY.
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Arch
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« Reply #5 on: July 18, 2016, 12:33:20 am »

Pls
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #6 on: July 18, 2016, 12:34:50 am »

There was an internal megathread in the primary poll sub but I don't see one for general, so this will be it.

Internals should not be put into the db but can be shared here.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2016, 01:47:02 am »

CT tied ?

Extremely unlikely ...
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2016, 08:24:18 pm »

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/2016/07/14/internal-polling-shows-gingrich-could-deliver-key-swing-states/

Southern Political Report, trying to hype up their Southern son Gingrich... before Pence was picked.

Trump/Pence lose Florida by 1
Trump/Pence win GA by 1 vs Clinton
Trump/Pence LOSE GA by 1 vs Clinton/Warren
Trump/Pence lose North Carolina
« Last Edit: July 18, 2016, 08:26:10 pm by HillOfANight »Logged
Ebsy
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« Reply #9 on: July 18, 2016, 08:30:53 pm »

DSCC internal had Trump +5  in Indiana.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #10 on: July 18, 2016, 08:35:34 pm »

DSCC internal had Trump +5  in Indiana.

That was among the undecided voters. They never published the numbers for all voters (likely not favorable for her).
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #11 on: July 18, 2016, 09:18:20 pm »

Please link to sources or say where you saw it on TV
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #12 on: July 22, 2016, 09:05:25 pm »

Quote
The poll has Kirk edging ahead of Democratic nominee Tammy Duckworth 41.9 percent to 40.4 percent, within the poll's plus or minus 3.5 percentage point margin of error, but better than the narrow 42.5 percent to 42 percent lead Duckworth held when Basswood last surveyed in April.

Kirk this summer ran TV ads before Duckworth, which could account for a margin shift that small. He's also loudly backed off an earlier endorsement of Trump.

Normally I'd say an incumbent with only 41.9 percent backing is in some trouble. But this is a strange year, and it's hard to say without knowing more about the roughly one in five voters who are undecided.

In comparison to the Senate contest, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has a wide lead in her home state over the GOP's Trump.

Specifically, 46.4 percent of likely voters surveyed by phone said they favor Clinton, 32.5 percent are for Trump, 5.2 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2.6 percent for the Green Party's Jill Stein. Just over 13 percent were undecided.

Back on the Senate race, Basswood says Kirk is doing 22 points better than Trump among moderates, and 24 points better among women. Basswood's research memo didn't say what the relative margin is among Republicans and men, but it obviously is much smaller.

Basswood also found that Illinois voters oppose the Iran nuclear deal 51 percent to 28 percent, favor keeping the Guantanamo prison open 57 percent to 34 percent, and oppose admitting Syrian refugees to the U.S. 60 percent to 32 percent. There have been some sharp differences between Duckworth and Kirk on those issues, particularly the latter.   


http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20160722/BLOGS02/160729927/poll-gives-kirk-edge-over-duckworth-but-clinton-clobbering-trump
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #13 on: July 22, 2016, 09:07:06 pm »

The numbers for the presidential race seem plausible.
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« Reply #14 on: July 22, 2016, 09:10:36 pm »

The numbers for the presidential race seem plausible.
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dspNY
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« Reply #15 on: July 22, 2016, 09:36:38 pm »

Since it's a repub internal add 5 points to the dems
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #16 on: July 22, 2016, 10:05:39 pm »



Specifically, 46.4 percent of likely voters surveyed by phone said they favor Clinton, 32.5 percent are for Trump, 5.2 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2.6 percent for the Green Party's Jill Stein. Just over 13 percent were undecided.

Illinois:  Hillary 46.4% TRUMP 32.5% Johnson 5.2% Stein 2.6%
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20160722/BLOGS02/160729927/poll-gives-kirk-edge-over-duckworth-but-clinton-clobbering-trump

of course HRC will win Illinois. But only +13.9% margins in deep blue state. Not very good sign for HRC Wink


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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #17 on: July 22, 2016, 10:08:17 pm »

Go. Away.
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« Reply #18 on: July 25, 2016, 07:26:49 am »

Georgia D-Internal poll from Lake Research Partners has Clinton +1 (Clinton 41, Trump 40, Undecided 16) with a sample of 600 LV.  No three-way numbers are listed (Stein isn't on the ballot here).  No crosstabs.

Link: https://cmgajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/lrpmemo-georgiademocraticparty-f-072016.pdf

Favorability:

Hillary Clinton 42/53  (-11)
Donald Trump 39/55  (-16)
Barack Obama 51/45 (+6)
Michelle Obama 61/27 (+34)
Bill Clinton 53/39 (+14)
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« Reply #19 on: July 25, 2016, 08:07:40 am »

Georgia D-Internal poll from Lake Research Partners has Clinton +1 (Clinton 41, Trump 40, Undecided 16) with a sample of 600 LV.  No three-way numbers are listed (Stein isn't on the ballot here).  No crosstabs.

Link: https://cmgajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/lrpmemo-georgiademocraticparty-f-072016.pdf

Favorability:

Hillary Clinton 42/53  (-11)
Donald Trump 39/55  (-16)
Barack Obama 51/45 (+6)
Michelle Obama 61/27 (+34)
Bill Clinton 53/39 (+14)

From:
MAR. 31-APR. 3, Lake Research Partners, 400 LV   
Clinton 50%
Trump 37%
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #20 on: July 25, 2016, 01:30:00 pm »

Georgia D-Internal poll from Lake Research Partners has Clinton +1 (Clinton 41, Trump 40, Undecided 16) with a sample of 600 LV.  No three-way numbers are listed (Stein isn't on the ballot here).  No crosstabs.

Link: https://cmgajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/lrpmemo-georgiademocraticparty-f-072016.pdf

Favorability:

Hillary Clinton 42/53  (-11)
Donald Trump 39/55  (-16)
Barack Obama 51/45 (+6)
Michelle Obama 61/27 (+34)
Bill Clinton 53/39 (+14)

I asked them the composition/preference and this is the most info they gave me. Seems reasonable considering past years and demographic growth.

Quote
we didn't include Johnson in the poll so we don't have numbers on him. The racial composition of the sample was 30% African American, 3% Latino, 2% Asian. The rest were white or other.

https://twitter.com/LoriGearyWSB/status/757588822469271557

WSB/LandMark should release something by 6PM for Georgia to confirm too.
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dspNY
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« Reply #21 on: August 03, 2016, 09:48:08 pm »

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)
« Last Edit: August 03, 2016, 09:50:01 pm by dspNY »Logged
Arch
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« Reply #22 on: August 03, 2016, 09:49:59 pm »

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

lol, that's insane. IA-3 or IA-1?
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izixs
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« Reply #23 on: August 03, 2016, 10:08:10 pm »

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

lol, that's insane. IA-3 or IA-1?

This is Chuck Todd. This could mean 2 or 4.
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I'll come up with one later.
Arch
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« Reply #24 on: August 03, 2016, 10:08:48 pm »

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

lol, that's insane. IA-3 or IA-1?

This is Chuck Todd. This could mean 2 or 4.

Ah... lol. If Hillary would be up 13 in IA-4, she would be landsliding beyond belief.
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