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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 60474 times)
HillOfANight
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« Reply #125 on: September 06, 2016, 10:07:24 am »

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/07/us/politics/donald-trump-ohio-john-kasich.html?ref=politics&_r=0

Quote
Mitt Romney lost Franklin County by 125,000 votes. Mr. Trump is supported by only about 20 percent of the voters there, according to a Republican strategist briefed on private polling.

Errr... Obama won Franklin 60-38 in 2012.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #126 on: September 06, 2016, 10:16:10 am »

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/07/us/politics/donald-trump-ohio-john-kasich.html?ref=politics&_r=0

Quote
Mitt Romney lost Franklin County by 125,000 votes. Mr. Trump is supported by only about 20 percent of the voters there, according to a Republican strategist briefed on private polling.

Errr... Obama won Franklin 60-38 in 2012.
Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #127 on: September 06, 2016, 10:25:04 am »

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/07/us/politics/donald-trump-ohio-john-kasich.html?ref=politics&_r=0

Quote
Mitt Romney lost Franklin County by 125,000 votes. Mr. Trump is supported by only about 20 percent of the voters there, according to a Republican strategist briefed on private polling.

Errr... Obama won Franklin 60-38 in 2012.
Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.
I'd rather believe internalls than public ones. 2012!!!111
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Seriously?
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« Reply #128 on: September 06, 2016, 11:28:25 am »

Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).
Evidence? Smiley

Some internal polls from the parties have to be pretty accurate because the parties' entire reason for existence is to win
Can't see connection, actually. And, of course, it is not an evidence. If your internal polls is not showing you winning, you don't talk about them, because it will hurt you.

What is entire reason of most pollster firms?

There a numerous reasons to get internals out...
The problem with internals is that you don't know which internal you are getting. The one based on the assumption of max turnout of the party that sanctioned the internal or the real number.

It's the probing of the "what if" factor that is generally the problem.

We have no idea of what the baseline assumptions are.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #129 on: September 08, 2016, 07:13:34 pm »
« Edited: September 08, 2016, 07:18:02 pm by HillOfANight »

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/trump-candidates-downballot-hurt-227882

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/774008265281789953

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/7/9/1220127/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2012-election-results-by-congressional-and-legislative-districts

It seems like despite the public polls tightening, there's been a lot of bed wetting among GOP consultants screaming disaster.

Trump is behind in KS-03 which Daily Kos says Romney won 54-44.

In SC senate district 22, Trump is down 22 (Romney lost by 15)

In Indiana, IN-2 which Romney won by 14% and IN-2 which Romney won by 17, are close.
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Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst
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« Reply #130 on: September 08, 2016, 07:16:06 pm »

Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #131 on: September 08, 2016, 07:26:25 pm »

Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.
To my mind, there are three probable explanations:

1. The media wants a horse race, and are tweaking their methodologies/sampling to aid the narrative
2. The GOP wants a sense of panic among organizers (and/or donors), and is tweaking their polling in turn
3. Random noise (given how consistent the pattern is, though, this seems pretty unlikely)
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #132 on: September 08, 2016, 07:35:30 pm »

Besides CNN and Quinnipiac, who both have crazy swings and heavy editorializing in their poll releases, I think most of the big pollsters strive to be honest and present an accurate depiction of the race. It seems clear the race has tightened.

But Trump is still behind and people in down ballot races have real concerns that Trump is going to blow it for them, even if he is improving a few points.
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Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst
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« Reply #133 on: September 08, 2016, 07:37:00 pm »

Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.
To my mind, there are three probable explanations:

1. The media wants a horse race, and are tweaking their methodologies/sampling to aid the narrative
2. The GOP wants a sense of panic among organizers (and/or donors), and is tweaking their polling in turn
3. Random noise (given how consistent the pattern is, though, this seems pretty unlikely)

Agreed, and I think #2 is the most likely explanation. No way every big pollster is "rigging" the numbers.
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dspNY
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« Reply #134 on: September 08, 2016, 08:05:15 pm »

Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.
To my mind, there are three probable explanations:

1. The media wants a horse race, and are tweaking their methodologies/sampling to aid the narrative
2. The GOP wants a sense of panic among organizers (and/or donors), and is tweaking their polling in turn
3. Random noise (given how consistent the pattern is, though, this seems pretty unlikely)

Or 4: The GOP's internals showing Trump as a dumpster fire are correct because they are making unusual moves with money, like using RGA money instead of RNC money which is forced to prop up a failing candidate atop the ticket
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #135 on: September 08, 2016, 08:33:50 pm »

Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.
To my mind, there are three probable explanations:

1. The media wants a horse race, and are tweaking their methodologies/sampling to aid the narrative
2. The GOP wants a sense of panic among organizers (and/or donors), and is tweaking their polling in turn
3. Random noise (given how consistent the pattern is, though, this seems pretty unlikely)

Or 4: The GOP's internals showing Trump as a dumpster fire are correct because they are making unusual moves with money, like using RGA money instead of RNC money which is forced to prop up a failing candidate atop the ticket
This may be true, but in that case public polls should be showing that as well, unless there's some force which is pulling the two apart.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #136 on: September 08, 2016, 08:52:21 pm »

The problem is it doesn't matter if Trump loses Colorado by 10 or by 5, he's still losing.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #137 on: September 09, 2016, 04:48:09 am »

Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.
To my mind, there are three probable explanations:

1. The media wants a horse race, and are tweaking their methodologies/sampling to aid the narrative
2. The GOP wants a sense of panic among organizers (and/or donors), and is tweaking their polling in turn
3. Random noise (given how consistent the pattern is, though, this seems pretty unlikely)

Or GOP just doesn't like Trump. They can't say it loud, because R-voters are pretty much behind Trump. Right now, the race is about Clinton +2-4, and it is tie a Ohio/Florid/Iowa etc. We should by default get some internals, where Trump has a comfortable lead, just because of nature of polls. But the "leaked" polls are always awful for Trump.

It just doesn't add up.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #138 on: September 09, 2016, 05:12:05 am »

The most obvious explanation might be that there is some differing assumption between the polls, for example as relates to turnout models. But it's hard to know who is right then.

Proper internal polls are probably better than public ones - the problem with internals is rather that we never know what they decide to show us.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #139 on: September 16, 2016, 11:49:13 am »

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #140 on: September 16, 2016, 11:54:54 am »

Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year
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Arch
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« Reply #141 on: September 16, 2016, 11:55:49 am »

Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #142 on: September 16, 2016, 11:58:44 am »

Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.
At the end of the article it says that they purposely over-sampled Hispanics
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Arch
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« Reply #143 on: September 16, 2016, 12:03:29 pm »

Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.
At the end of the article it says that they purposely over-sampled Hispanics

Puerto Ricans are much more D than Cubans and have disproportionately grown in the last 4 years relative to other Hispanics in the state. So it depends how the intentional over sample was composed (can't see right now, on iPhone). Does it say anything?
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #144 on: September 16, 2016, 12:23:10 pm »

Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.
At the end of the article it says that they purposely over-sampled Hispanics

Oversample generally means they poll more of a subgroup to get a lower margin of error, but their share of the vote is not overstated. For example, a national poll of 400 might only get 50 Hispanics to respond, which is a huge margin of error. So they could additionally focus poll 200 Hispanics, use the R/D split, and then fit it back to the 50/400.
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marty
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« Reply #145 on: September 16, 2016, 12:24:36 pm »

Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.
At the end of the article it says that they purposely over-sampled Hispanics

Oversample generally means they poll more of a subgroup to get a lower margin of error, but their share of the vote is not overstated. For example, a national poll of 400 might only get 50 Hispanics to respond, which is a huge margin of error. So they could additionally focus poll 200 Hispanics, use the R/D split, and then fit it back to the 50/400.

You are such a hackish poster. And you absolutely work for the HRC campaign.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #146 on: September 16, 2016, 12:29:06 pm »

I mean, he literally just explained what an oversample was and how it is reweighted so as to not impact the topline numbers, but I guess you are content with your ignorance.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #147 on: September 16, 2016, 12:38:09 pm »

Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.
At the end of the article it says that they purposely over-sampled Hispanics

Oversample generally means they poll more of a subgroup to get a lower margin of error, but their share of the vote is not overstated. For example, a national poll of 400 might only get 50 Hispanics to respond, which is a huge margin of error. So they could additionally focus poll 200 Hispanics, use the R/D split, and then fit it back to the 50/400.

You are such a hackish poster. And you absolutely work for the HRC campaign.

That's an absolutely unjustified insult.  Oversampling is a recognized technique to reduce the margin of error within the subgroup.  It does not change the overall result.  Here's a description of the technique from the well-respected pollster Pew Research (emphasis mine):

"Oversampling

For some surveys, it is important to ensure that there are enough members of a certain subgroup in the population so that more reliable estimates can be reported for that group. To do this, we oversample members of the subgroup by selecting more people from this group than would typically be done if everyone in the sample had an equal chance of being selected. Because the margin of sampling error is related to the size of the sample, increasing the sample size for a particular subgroup through the use of oversampling allows for estimates to be made with a smaller margin of error. A survey that includes an oversample weights the results so that members in the oversampled group are weighted to their actual proportion in the population; this allows for the overall survey results to represent both the national population and the oversampled subgroup."

This is from http://www.pewresearch.org/methodology/u-s-survey-research/sampling/.

Perhaps you should consider not insulting people based on your false assumptions.
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Shadows
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« Reply #148 on: September 16, 2016, 12:41:24 pm »

Feingold winning is tremendous. He is a very strong progressive principled voice & would strengthen the Merkley-Warren-Sanders-Brown strong progressive group (some of whom endorsed Clinton).

And a senate majority is crucial. Without it nothing will get done with a tea party far right republican agenda.
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Shadows
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« Reply #149 on: September 16, 2016, 12:43:27 pm »

If you can't take a contrarian opinion you have got a problem, this is not a fanclub. There is a tendency to trash every poll where Hillary loses n support every poll where she wins which is no fair. Let's not be delusional here.

I think Hillary's problem in the LV-RV gap. She maybe leading by 1-2% in RV but she is probably losing among LV due to the huge enthusiasm gap & the firing up of the conservative base & some independents for Trump!
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