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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 60465 times)
Ebsy
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« Reply #175 on: September 30, 2016, 05:00:47 pm »

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/dccc-poll-clinton-rosen-up-in-swing-district
Nevada's 3rd congressional district

The survey, taken this week of 458 likely voters and with a 4.5 percent margin of error, shows Clinton up 46-38 over Donald Trump, with Gary Johnson garnering 10 percent of the vote. (Clinton is up 5 in a two-way.)

President Obama won the district by 1 point in 2012 and 9 points in 2008.

Interesting how they didn't release the Senate race numbers. Not a good sign for Cortez-Masto.

House internals don't usually poll senate candidate, so this isn't exactly surprising.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #176 on: September 30, 2016, 05:04:17 pm »

https://www.scribd.com/document/325976866/IL-10-Normington-Petts-for-Brad-Schneider-Sept-2016

Clinton leads Trump 59 to 32 in IL-10, Dold's district. Way above Obama's 16 point margin in 2012 and similar to his 26 point margin in 2008. Schneider is ahead of Dold by 5, 46 to 41.
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Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst
IndyRep
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« Reply #177 on: September 30, 2016, 05:06:49 pm »

House internals don't usually poll senate candidate, so this isn't exactly surprising.

Yeah, but in this case they polled the Senate race (Question 6), but for some reason refused to release the numbers. Strange, but it's Joe Heck's district after all.
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Devils30
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« Reply #178 on: October 02, 2016, 12:14:50 pm »

There's no way Hillary wins NV-3 and loses the state.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #179 on: October 02, 2016, 02:10:11 pm »

Wow, I didn't really notice this thread.  Likewise, I've used it to update my ratings on how each congressional district will vote in the Presidential Election.  

Img



Not that it matters much, since most states don't award electoral votes based on whoever wins each congressional district.  However, I would have bragging rights if I correctly predicted every CD for the presidential election.  Grin

Dos anyone know if there are polls for IL-6 and IL-14?  Obama lost both districts by 8% and 10% respectively, however that poll of the 10th shows Trump vastly under-preforming Romney's percentage there.  Trump seems like a pretty bad fit for the Chicago suburbs, so perhaps his weakness is not just limited to one district.    
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Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst
IndyRep
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« Reply #180 on: October 02, 2016, 02:30:09 pm »

Hmmm.. ME-02 should definitely be a Tossup IMO.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #181 on: October 02, 2016, 02:43:46 pm »

Hmmm.. ME-02 should definitely be a Tossup IMO.

At least a Tossup.  Lean R is probably closer to the current situation.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #182 on: October 02, 2016, 03:19:20 pm »
« Edited: October 02, 2016, 03:27:47 pm by Fuzzybigfoot »

Do the polls for Maine have a French speaking option?  Almost 4% (47,000) of Maine residents speak it, and most of them are likely located in the second district, closer to the Canadian border.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #183 on: October 02, 2016, 03:21:11 pm »

Do the polls for Maine have a French option?  Almost 4% (47,000) of Maine residents speak it, and most of them are likely located in the second district, closer to the Canadian border.

In addition, many of the French towns bordering Canada vote heavily Democratic.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #184 on: October 02, 2016, 10:38:45 pm »

Any takers?  Tongue
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cinyc
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« Reply #185 on: October 02, 2016, 10:45:27 pm »

Any takers?  Tongue

Takers for what?  I doubt Maine pollsters poll in French.  As you pointed out, French-speaking Mainers are less than 10% of the population.  And most of them probably speak English, too, anyway, like many Québécois.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #186 on: October 03, 2016, 01:52:54 am »

Any takers?  Tongue

Takers for what?  I doubt Maine pollsters poll in French.  As you pointed out, French-speaking Mainers are less than 10% of the population.  And most of them probably speak English, too, anyway, like many Québécois.

I honestly didn't know, that's why I was asking. 
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #187 on: October 03, 2016, 01:07:41 pm »

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/783004625263820801

Clinton +11 in Colorado from Keating Research.

Clinton 44
Trump 33
Johnson 11
Stein 3
Other 4
Undecided 6

Among white voters, she's ahead 42-37.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #188 on: October 04, 2016, 01:34:33 pm »

https://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/NV-CD-03-10.3.16.pdf

According to The Tarrance Group, in Nevada's 3rd congressional district, Donald Trump has a three point advantage (43%-40%) over Hillary Clinton in the Presidential race and Trump has a three point advantage (38%-35%) among voters making a definite choice.

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Ebsy
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« Reply #189 on: October 04, 2016, 01:43:55 pm »

Clinton ahead by 2 in GOP internal of IA-01.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326394011/IA-01-The-Polling-Company-for-Rod-Blum-Oct-2016
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Arch
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« Reply #190 on: October 04, 2016, 01:46:40 pm »

Clinton ahead by 2 in GOP internal of IA-01.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326394011/IA-01-The-Polling-Company-for-Rod-Blum-Oct-2016

Definitely a good sign.
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dspNY
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« Reply #191 on: October 04, 2016, 01:57:51 pm »

Using my 5 point rule for internals, the Nevada internal is a very good sign for Clinton, but the Iowa internal is no better than mixed news (Clinton should win that district by 10)
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dspNY
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« Reply #192 on: October 04, 2016, 02:12:42 pm »

To clarify: My 5 point internal rule--when a candidate puts out an internal poll, their real position, and the position of the party, is 5 points worse than the internal.

Applying this to Nevada, Tarkanian is in a dead heat for NV-3, Heck leads by 5 for Senate and Clinton leads by 2. In 2012, Obama won NV-3 by 0.8% so Clinton looks to be in a good position in the state. Even if the internal were correct (the most optimistic scenario), Clinton would hold a narrow lead statewide as NV-3 was about 5-6 points to the right of the state in 2012.

Iowa is at best mixed news for the Democrats. Obama won IA-1 by 13.5% in 2012 so Clinton needs a larger lead here to win the state. Using the 5 point internal role, Blum leads by 11, Grassley leads by 18 and Clinton leads by 7. If Clinton loses 6.5 points to Obama's margin in IA-1 she is likely trailing in Iowa by 2-3 points
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #193 on: October 04, 2016, 03:20:17 pm »

To clarify: My 5 point internal rule--when a candidate puts out an internal poll, their real position, and the position of the party, is 5 points worse than the internal.

Applying this to Nevada, Tarkanian is in a dead heat for NV-3, Heck leads by 5 for Senate and Clinton leads by 2. In 2012, Obama won NV-3 by 0.8% so Clinton looks to be in a good position in the state. Even if the internal were correct (the most optimistic scenario), Clinton would hold a narrow lead statewide as NV-3 was about 5-6 points to the right of the state in 2012.

Iowa is at best mixed news for the Democrats. Obama won IA-1 by 13.5% in 2012 so Clinton needs a larger lead here to win the state. Using the 5 point internal role, Blum leads by 11, Grassley leads by 18 and Clinton leads by 7. If Clinton loses 6.5 points to Obama's margin in IA-1 she is likely trailing in Iowa by 2-3 points

I was just going to mention isn't this a D +5 PVI according to Cook Political reports, as well as the most Democratic CD in the state?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #194 on: October 04, 2016, 03:28:31 pm »

Clinton +7 in NJ-05 in Democratic internal. Obama lost it by 4 in 2012 and 2 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326407714/NJ-05-GYH-for-HMP-Oct-2016

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dspNY
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« Reply #195 on: October 04, 2016, 03:37:35 pm »

Clinton +7 in NJ-05 in Democratic internal. Obama lost it by 4 in 2012 and 2 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326407714/NJ-05-GYH-for-HMP-Oct-2016



That means Clinton is running slightly ahead of Obama in this district even with a 5 point adjustment against the Democrats. Would also imply she is winning both counties on Long Island since those areas are very similar
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #196 on: October 04, 2016, 06:04:05 pm »

https://twitter.com/LisaDNews/status/783440613207310339

sources in both parties tell me their (separate) internal polling shows @GovGaryJohnson is sliding fast and it benefits @HillaryClinton
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Lok
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« Reply #197 on: October 04, 2016, 06:23:00 pm »

Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents — a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.
At the end of the article it says that they purposely over-sampled Hispanics

Oversample generally means they poll more of a subgroup to get a lower margin of error, but their share of the vote is not overstated. For example, a national poll of 400 might only get 50 Hispanics to respond, which is a huge margin of error. So they could additionally focus poll 200 Hispanics, use the R/D split, and then fit it back to the 50/400.

You are such a hackish poster. And you absolutely work for the HRC campaign.
Speak for yourself.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #198 on: October 04, 2016, 06:28:33 pm »

https://twitter.com/LisaDNews/status/783440613207310339

sources in both parties tell me their (separate) internal polling shows @GovGaryJohnson is sliding fast and it benefits @HillaryClinton

3rd party gonna third party
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Ebsy
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« Reply #199 on: October 05, 2016, 12:33:52 pm »

Democratic Internal has Clinton +4 in ME-02.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326519491/ME-02-Normington-Petts-for-Emily-Cain-Oct-2016

Republican Internal has Clinton +4 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 in 2008 and 4 in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326523708/CA-07-Public-Opinion-Strategies-for-Scott-Jones-and-the-NRCC-Oct-2016
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