Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 09, 2019, 05:06:23 pm
News: 2020 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Internal poll megathread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 [10] 11 12 13 14 15 ... 32 Print
Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 64096 times)
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,086
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #225 on: October 06, 2016, 06:03:00 pm »

John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704


They're basically admitting that their candidate can't make it to 270 then.  If that doesn't signify the end, then I don't know what does.

Clinton pretty much has Trump 99% boxed out if that scenario is true. No complacency though

This kind of reminds me of a certain German leader whose close confidants and military advisers told him while the Red Army was in the outer suburbs of Berlin, and Montgomery and Eisenhower are racing from the West as fast as they can, while the whole time the dude is camped out in his bunker listening to the historical equivalent of Baghdad Bob, and no one will say what the actual reality of the situation is.
Logged
Erc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,741
Slovenia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #226 on: October 06, 2016, 06:15:10 pm »

Internal polls should be better because they start with the voter data and they have their own metriics ofrom their GOTV operations, but they can get things wrong if they make bad assumptions.  Romney's team assumed they would get their voters out and Obama wouldn't.  They were wrong. It would be curious to see what assumptions the Trump team are using to show leads in NV and OH.  I would bet that Clinton internals have her up in both. 

It's like that recent upshot experiment where they gave the same raw data to four different pollsters, and each had a different result. Some showing trump up some Clinton up.   

Internal polls may be better for people working in the campaign who get to see all of them, but obviously we don't get to see all of them.

From the Democratic side, we are selectively leaked the ones that look good (e.g. statistical fluctuations in their direction).  From the Republican side, we get more because that ship is leaking like crazy...but we generally expect Democratic polls to be of better quality, because all the young people with brains are working for the Democrats.

But yes, obviously it's not good for Trump that he's down in 4 states that he needs to win, and his only possible path to victory is the FL/NC/NH/ME-2 eye of the needle to 270 (and hope there are no faithless electors).  Also doesn't help that those states aren't the best correlated, so pulling the inside straight here isn't likely at all.
Logged
HillOfANight
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #227 on: October 06, 2016, 06:18:15 pm »

https://www.savethechildrenactionnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/SCAN-NH-General-Election-public-100616.pdf

greenberg quinlan rosner research new hampshire

Clinton 46
Trump 38
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,393
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #228 on: October 06, 2016, 06:28:03 pm »

Even during her bad spell, pollster.com always had Clinton ahead by 4 points. This race was never "tied".

Yeah, but more people cite RCP. I like Huffpo's pollster, but they seem to get less attention overall.

The question is why. RCP is notorious for cherrypicking R friendly polls.
We Americans love simplicity. Hence, Real CLEAR Politics.
Logged
swf541
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,217


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #229 on: October 07, 2016, 08:07:07 pm »

https://twitter.com/reidepstein?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Murkoswki internal has Trump only +3
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,109


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #230 on: October 07, 2016, 08:07:15 pm »

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/784559054349799424

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,574
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #231 on: October 07, 2016, 08:07:55 pm »


#BattlegroundAlaska

That being said, Alaska has trended Democratic the last four elections
Logged
heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,231
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #232 on: October 07, 2016, 08:10:01 pm »


Nonsense. Trump is gonna win by 20 points because Hillary's a bad fit.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,559
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #233 on: October 07, 2016, 08:10:27 pm »

Of all the currently red states in the 538 forecast, Clinton has the third highest chance of winning Alaska, after Arizona and Georgia. Interesting......
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,520
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #234 on: October 07, 2016, 08:11:25 pm »


why is Trump a better fit for Alaska?
Logged
HillOfANight
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #235 on: October 07, 2016, 08:17:28 pm »

Wow @Alaska! I'm still waiting for her to crush him in the town hall before declaring victory.
Logged
heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,231
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #236 on: October 07, 2016, 08:29:20 pm »


I was teasing at a prediction a certain poster with an orange avatar made a while ago. In my opinion, Trump might be an even worse fit for the state than Hillary is.

Now that Trump is collapsing bigly, it could be competitive if the Clinton campaign makes a furious rally for it.
Logged
HillOfANight
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #237 on: October 07, 2016, 08:38:27 pm »

http://www.npr.org/2016/04/29/476047822/sanders-campaign-has-spent-50-percent-more-than-clinton-in-2016

It would be fun, but they've proven themselves relatively thrifty (let Sanders outspend them in many states). And they had the chance in Georgia and passed, and are barely advertising in Arizona. Begich spent huge on ads and ground game and couldn't win in 2014. She can't come in at the last minute and expect to win.

Plus, why play around with Alaska, when she can secure North Carolina?
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,339
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #238 on: October 07, 2016, 08:45:30 pm »

http://www.npr.org/2016/04/29/476047822/sanders-campaign-has-spent-50-percent-more-than-clinton-in-2016

It would be fun, but they've proven themselves relatively thrifty (let Sanders outspend them in many states). And they had the chance in Georgia and passed, and are barely advertising in Arizona. Begich spent huge on ads and ground game and couldn't win in 2014. She can't come in at the last minute and expect to win.

Plus, why play around with Alaska, when she can secure North Carolina?

If these look really good in the last week, don't be shocked if Clinton is in Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri. Kaine and Sanders maybe get shipped up to Alaska if it looks close.
Logged
RJEvans
MasterRegal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 496
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #239 on: October 07, 2016, 08:55:49 pm »

http://www.npr.org/2016/04/29/476047822/sanders-campaign-has-spent-50-percent-more-than-clinton-in-2016

It would be fun, but they've proven themselves relatively thrifty (let Sanders outspend them in many states). And they had the chance in Georgia and passed, and are barely advertising in Arizona. Begich spent huge on ads and ground game and couldn't win in 2014. She can't come in at the last minute and expect to win.

Plus, why play around with Alaska, when she can secure North Carolina?

Send Bernie for a couple stops.
Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,768
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #240 on: October 07, 2016, 09:01:43 pm »

Sending anyone to Alaska is kind of a waste. It's only three electoral votes, and takes about 8 hours or so to fly there, depending on where you're leaving from. There are more important stops on the mainland that surrogates can go to instead.
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,574
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #241 on: October 07, 2016, 09:03:37 pm »

http://www.npr.org/2016/04/29/476047822/sanders-campaign-has-spent-50-percent-more-than-clinton-in-2016

It would be fun, but they've proven themselves relatively thrifty (let Sanders outspend them in many states). And they had the chance in Georgia and passed, and are barely advertising in Arizona. Begich spent huge on ads and ground game and couldn't win in 2014. She can't come in at the last minute and expect to win.

Plus, why play around with Alaska, when she can secure North Carolina?

All bets are off now with what is coming out of the GOP
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,910
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #242 on: October 07, 2016, 09:04:03 pm »

All these internal polls are showing a 1964-style landslide. Interesting.

lol, more like 2008.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,339
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #243 on: October 07, 2016, 09:05:38 pm »

All these internal polls are showing a 1964-style landslide. Interesting.

lol, more like 2008.

I think we are at 2008 levels, but I think things could get worse. You aren't going to convince folks to vote for Clinton, but stuff like this could convince folks to not even vote.
Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,768
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #244 on: October 07, 2016, 09:07:59 pm »

I'm thinking 2008 + AZ + GA - IN, with an outside shot at MO and an even more outside shot at SC.
Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,868
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #245 on: October 07, 2016, 09:27:43 pm »

Wow. Applying the "Internal Rule"... wow... AK might be legit competitive this year. We'll see.
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,574
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #246 on: October 07, 2016, 09:43:48 pm »

Wow. Applying the "Internal Rule"... wow... AK might be legit competitive this year. We'll see.

A caveat on that internal rule; I believe Murkowski is #NeverTrump so her people might be playing it more straight than other pollsters for GOP candidates. That being said, a GOP internal skews GOP even in that circumstance. Maybe not 5 pts but it does skew GOP a little bit
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,559
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #247 on: October 07, 2016, 10:10:25 pm »

Republican internals had a "Mark Foley-esque" drop after Trump's Machado comments, apparently.
https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/784586571328741376
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,689
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #248 on: October 07, 2016, 10:17:03 pm »

I think AK will be a single-digit race this year, but I don't think Hillary will actually win it, unless she wins the PV by double digits.
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,574
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #249 on: October 07, 2016, 10:23:26 pm »
« Edited: October 07, 2016, 10:25:08 pm by dspNY »

Republican internals had a "Mark Foley-esque" drop after Trump's Machado comments, apparently.
https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/784586571328741376

I want to see a Utah poll next week
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 [10] 11 12 13 14 15 ... 32 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC