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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 60545 times)
heatcharger
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« Reply #250 on: October 07, 2016, 08:29:20 pm »

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/784559054349799424

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Lisa Murkowski’s campaign just blasted out an internal poll that shows her way ahead but has Trump up only three on Clinton in Alaska

Nonsense. Trump is gonna win by 20 points because Hillary's a bad fit.

why is Trump a better fit for Alaska?

I was teasing at a prediction a certain poster with an orange avatar made a while ago. In my opinion, Trump might be an even worse fit for the state than Hillary is.

Now that Trump is collapsing bigly, it could be competitive if the Clinton campaign makes a furious rally for it.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #251 on: October 07, 2016, 08:38:27 pm »

http://www.npr.org/2016/04/29/476047822/sanders-campaign-has-spent-50-percent-more-than-clinton-in-2016

It would be fun, but they've proven themselves relatively thrifty (let Sanders outspend them in many states). And they had the chance in Georgia and passed, and are barely advertising in Arizona. Begich spent huge on ads and ground game and couldn't win in 2014. She can't come in at the last minute and expect to win.

Plus, why play around with Alaska, when she can secure North Carolina?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #252 on: October 07, 2016, 08:45:30 pm »

http://www.npr.org/2016/04/29/476047822/sanders-campaign-has-spent-50-percent-more-than-clinton-in-2016

It would be fun, but they've proven themselves relatively thrifty (let Sanders outspend them in many states). And they had the chance in Georgia and passed, and are barely advertising in Arizona. Begich spent huge on ads and ground game and couldn't win in 2014. She can't come in at the last minute and expect to win.

Plus, why play around with Alaska, when she can secure North Carolina?

If these look really good in the last week, don't be shocked if Clinton is in Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri. Kaine and Sanders maybe get shipped up to Alaska if it looks close.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #253 on: October 07, 2016, 08:55:49 pm »

http://www.npr.org/2016/04/29/476047822/sanders-campaign-has-spent-50-percent-more-than-clinton-in-2016

It would be fun, but they've proven themselves relatively thrifty (let Sanders outspend them in many states). And they had the chance in Georgia and passed, and are barely advertising in Arizona. Begich spent huge on ads and ground game and couldn't win in 2014. She can't come in at the last minute and expect to win.

Plus, why play around with Alaska, when she can secure North Carolina?

Send Bernie for a couple stops.
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Holmes
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« Reply #254 on: October 07, 2016, 09:01:43 pm »

Sending anyone to Alaska is kind of a waste. It's only three electoral votes, and takes about 8 hours or so to fly there, depending on where you're leaving from. There are more important stops on the mainland that surrogates can go to instead.
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dspNY
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« Reply #255 on: October 07, 2016, 09:03:37 pm »

http://www.npr.org/2016/04/29/476047822/sanders-campaign-has-spent-50-percent-more-than-clinton-in-2016

It would be fun, but they've proven themselves relatively thrifty (let Sanders outspend them in many states). And they had the chance in Georgia and passed, and are barely advertising in Arizona. Begich spent huge on ads and ground game and couldn't win in 2014. She can't come in at the last minute and expect to win.

Plus, why play around with Alaska, when she can secure North Carolina?

All bets are off now with what is coming out of the GOP
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #256 on: October 07, 2016, 09:04:03 pm »

All these internal polls are showing a 1964-style landslide. Interesting.

lol, more like 2008.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #257 on: October 07, 2016, 09:05:38 pm »

All these internal polls are showing a 1964-style landslide. Interesting.

lol, more like 2008.

I think we are at 2008 levels, but I think things could get worse. You aren't going to convince folks to vote for Clinton, but stuff like this could convince folks to not even vote.
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Holmes
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« Reply #258 on: October 07, 2016, 09:07:59 pm »

I'm thinking 2008 + AZ + GA - IN, with an outside shot at MO and an even more outside shot at SC.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #259 on: October 07, 2016, 09:27:43 pm »

https://twitter.com/reidepstein?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Murkoswki internal has Trump only +3
Wow. Applying the "Internal Rule"... wow... AK might be legit competitive this year. We'll see.
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dspNY
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« Reply #260 on: October 07, 2016, 09:43:48 pm »

https://twitter.com/reidepstein?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Murkoswki internal has Trump only +3
Wow. Applying the "Internal Rule"... wow... AK might be legit competitive this year. We'll see.

A caveat on that internal rule; I believe Murkowski is #NeverTrump so her people might be playing it more straight than other pollsters for GOP candidates. That being said, a GOP internal skews GOP even in that circumstance. Maybe not 5 pts but it does skew GOP a little bit
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #261 on: October 07, 2016, 10:10:25 pm »

Republican internals had a "Mark Foley-esque" drop after Trump's Machado comments, apparently.
https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/784586571328741376
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NV less likely to flip than FL/WI
xingkerui
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« Reply #262 on: October 07, 2016, 10:17:03 pm »

I think AK will be a single-digit race this year, but I don't think Hillary will actually win it, unless she wins the PV by double digits.
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dspNY
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« Reply #263 on: October 07, 2016, 10:23:26 pm »
« Edited: October 07, 2016, 10:25:08 pm by dspNY »

Republican internals had a "Mark Foley-esque" drop after Trump's Machado comments, apparently.
https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/784586571328741376

I want to see a Utah poll next week
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #264 on: October 07, 2016, 10:40:20 pm »

Republican internals had a "Mark Foley-esque" drop after Trump's Machado comments, apparently.
https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/784586571328741376

I want to see a Utah poll next week
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dspNY
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« Reply #265 on: October 08, 2016, 12:22:13 am »

Link.

As many of you know, Gallup was embarrassed back in 2012 when they had Romney winning by 1, so they stopped officially releasing horserace numbers.

However, they do still poll the question, but it seems that they are hiding the results. It says in the release that they sampled 1033 adults, and subsequently 931 registered voters, and that 444 of those registered voters support Clinton and 407 of them support Trump. Doing the math, that breaks down to:

Clinton - 47.6%
Trump - 43.7%

I already put this in the internal poll thread
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heatcharger
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« Reply #266 on: October 08, 2016, 12:23:58 am »

Link.

As many of you know, Gallup was embarrassed back in 2012 when they had Romney winning by 1, so they stopped officially releasing horserace numbers.

However, they do still poll the question, but it seems that they are hiding the results. It says in the release that they sampled 1033 adults, and subsequently 931 registered voters, and that 444 of those registered voters support Clinton and 407 of them support Trump. Doing the math, that breaks down to:

Clinton - 47.6%
Trump - 43.7%

I already put this in the internal poll thread

My mistake. Thanks.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #267 on: October 08, 2016, 12:32:48 am »

I won't be happy unless tomorrow's flash poll is Clinton +24.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #268 on: October 09, 2016, 03:53:14 pm »

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/785179324873895939

Img
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Arch
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« Reply #269 on: October 09, 2016, 03:54:05 pm »

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/785179324873895939

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Oh my goodness
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #270 on: October 09, 2016, 03:56:42 pm »

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/785179324873895939

Img


Oh my goodness

Mondale territory?
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dspNY
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« Reply #271 on: October 09, 2016, 04:44:23 pm »

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/785179324873895939

Img


Oh my goodness

Mondale territory?

If he's at 70%...if he's at 79% he's probably a point worse than Bob Dole's defeat in 1996 (something like Clinton +10)
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #272 on: October 09, 2016, 04:55:48 pm »

Mondale was at 74%.


http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-1984/
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #273 on: October 09, 2016, 05:33:57 pm »

Is PPP the democratic internal poll? The twitter accounts seems quite partisan
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Ebsy
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« Reply #274 on: October 09, 2016, 05:38:35 pm »

Is PPP the democratic internal poll? The twitter accounts seems quite partisan
Their polling is considered very good, and they are commissioned to do internals for quite a few campaigns.
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