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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 60460 times)
Devout Centrist
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« Reply #275 on: October 09, 2016, 05:47:29 pm »

Is PPP the democratic internal poll? The twitter accounts seems quite partisan
They are very snarky and opinionated, but not partisan.
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Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #276 on: October 09, 2016, 05:49:34 pm »

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/785179324873895939

Img


Oh my goodness

Mondale territory?

Yup. Jesus ing Christ, guys, the landslide might be happening.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #277 on: October 09, 2016, 07:47:10 pm »

Their polling is considered very good, and they are commissioned to do internals for quite a few campaigns.

They are very snarky and opinionated, but not partisan.

Thanks!
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cinyc
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« Reply #278 on: October 09, 2016, 07:59:19 pm »

Their polling is considered very good, and they are commissioned to do internals for quite a few campaigns.

They are very snarky and opinionated, but not partisan.

Thanks!

Every - or almost every - PPP private poll is for a Democrat or Democrat-leaning organization. When it comes to their private polling, PPP is as partisan as any pollster gets.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #279 on: October 09, 2016, 10:57:03 pm »

Their polling is considered very good, and they are commissioned to do internals for quite a few campaigns.

They are very snarky and opinionated, but not partisan.

Thanks!

Every - or almost every - PPP private poll is for a Democrat or Democrat-leaning organization. When it comes to their private polling, PPP is as partisan as any pollster gets.

But their methods, robo polling, has an R lean this cycle. No interviews in Spanish and no live callers, so it's not like they would methodologically favor D's.
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cinyc
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« Reply #280 on: October 09, 2016, 11:34:18 pm »

Their polling is considered very good, and they are commissioned to do internals for quite a few campaigns.

They are very snarky and opinionated, but not partisan.

Thanks!

Every - or almost every - PPP private poll is for a Democrat or Democrat-leaning organization. When it comes to their private polling, PPP is as partisan as any pollster gets.

But their methods, robo polling, has an R lean this cycle. No interviews in Spanish and no live callers, so it's not like they would methodologically favor D's.

When selectively releasing poll info for private pollsters, it's all about the special sauce pollsters use to achieve the result.  For example, is PPP's reported result before or after pushing voters against Trump after message testing for their client?  Is the turnout model what most expect or the best-case-scenario for their client?  What state are they polling?  A state with a lot of moderate Republicans and NeverTrumpers like Utah or a state with a lot of Trump supporters?

There's also no reason a robo-poller can't poll in Spanish (press 2 for Spanish is perfectly possible), and no evidence that not polling in Spanish even matters in the state polled for their client.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #281 on: October 10, 2016, 12:53:59 am »

Democrats quickly ramping up their internal polling across the board:


Quote
The campaign was planning to survey an array of Republican-leaning states this week, including Arizona, Georgia, Missouri and Indiana, to determine how competitive Mrs. Clinton is with Mr. Trump, according to a senior Clinton adviser who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Sending Mrs. Clinton to those states may be of little assistance to the partyís candidates, but an infusion of money dedicated to voter turnout could ensure that she enters the White House with a solid Senate majority and help Democrats make substantial gains in the House.

Democratic strategists involved in House and Senate races said they envisioned Mr. Trumpís collapse precipitating a broad shift in the political landscape, with tossup races moving firmly into their hands, and campaigns that were once long shots suddenly becoming competitive. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee planned to do rapid polling early this week to measure the impact of Mr. Trump on the House battlefield.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/10/us/politics/republicans-trump.html
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dspNY
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« Reply #282 on: October 10, 2016, 08:21:45 am »

Democrats quickly ramping up their internal polling across the board:


Quote
The campaign was planning to survey an array of Republican-leaning states this week, including Arizona, Georgia, Missouri and Indiana, to determine how competitive Mrs. Clinton is with Mr. Trump, according to a senior Clinton adviser who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Sending Mrs. Clinton to those states may be of little assistance to the partyís candidates, but an infusion of money dedicated to voter turnout could ensure that she enters the White House with a solid Senate majority and help Democrats make substantial gains in the House.

Democratic strategists involved in House and Senate races said they envisioned Mr. Trumpís collapse precipitating a broad shift in the political landscape, with tossup races moving firmly into their hands, and campaigns that were once long shots suddenly becoming competitive. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee planned to do rapid polling early this week to measure the impact of Mr. Trump on the House battlefield.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/10/us/politics/republicans-trump.html

Clinton's internals are showing a big national lead and she wants to see how far into red territory it extends
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dspNY
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« Reply #283 on: October 10, 2016, 11:32:35 am »

Mike Murphy, referencing the NBC/WSJ poll that just dropped:

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785514622547734528?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

"I've seen even worse numbers in internal GOP tracking"
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #284 on: October 10, 2016, 12:03:30 pm »

Mike Murphy, referencing the NBC/WSJ poll that just dropped:

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785514622547734528?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

"I've seen even worse numbers in internal GOP tracking"

Correlates with PPP as well... wow.
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swf541
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« Reply #285 on: October 10, 2016, 01:01:59 pm »

https://twitter.com/MichaelLaRosaDC/status/785315386111721472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Schmidt on Senate numbers from GOP internals......
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Arch
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« Reply #286 on: October 10, 2016, 01:05:05 pm »

https://twitter.com/MichaelLaRosaDC/status/785315386111721472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Schmidt on Senate numbers from GOP internals......

Bruh. I look forward to Senator Kander on top of Feingold.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #287 on: October 10, 2016, 02:03:25 pm »

Quote
Dem poll taken mostly before video had Hillary up 10 in Kansas-3, pro-Romney KC burbs. Yoder now at risk.

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/785552978727972864
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Maxwell
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« Reply #288 on: October 10, 2016, 02:05:36 pm »

*gasp*

very spooky numbers for the GOP.

Img
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Gass3268
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« Reply #289 on: October 10, 2016, 02:07:48 pm »

Quote
Dem poll taken mostly before video had Hillary up 10 in Kansas-3, pro-Romney KC burbs. Yoder now at risk.

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/785552978727972864

If this is accurate, even with the 5 point rule, Missouri is in play.
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Arch
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« Reply #290 on: October 10, 2016, 02:09:04 pm »

Quote
Dem poll taken mostly before video had Hillary up 10 in Kansas-3, pro-Romney KC burbs. Yoder now at risk.

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/785552978727972864

If this is accurate, even with the 5 point rule, Missouri is in play.

The fact that Missouri may have 2 D Senators and a D Governor is quite a turn of events imo. Voting for HRC would be the icing on the cake.
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Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #291 on: October 11, 2016, 12:10:41 am »
« Edited: October 11, 2016, 12:14:33 am by Doctor Imperialism »

A former Cruz guy on another forum I post on says he got his hands on some brand-new Trump internals, via a contact in the campaign. Take these with as many grains of salt as you want, but here they are:

New Hampshire - Clinton +9
Pennsylvania - Clinton +7
Ohio - Clinton +2
Michigan - Clinton +6
Wisconsin - Clinton +4
Iowa - Trump +2
Virginia - Clinton +10
North Carolina - Clinton +5
Georgia - TIE
Florida - Clinton +4
Colorado - Clinton +7
Arizona - Trump +1
Nevada - Clinton +3
Utah - Trump +4

Trump's support in Utah is apparently in the low 30's.
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Neolibs Are The New McCarthyists
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« Reply #292 on: October 11, 2016, 12:13:48 am »

If Marquette confirms these results in a few days, I'm officially pissed at WI. Disgusting.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #293 on: October 11, 2016, 12:15:51 am »
« Edited: October 11, 2016, 12:18:58 am by Ronnie »

If Marquette confirms these results in a few days, I'm officially pissed at WI. Disgusting.

You might be pissed at WI, but you should be absolutely elated at NC, GA and FL, all of which are states Trump cannot lose and still win the election.

Of course, I'm taking those polls with a grain of salt, but they do look plausible.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #294 on: October 11, 2016, 12:18:20 am »

No way these would get leaked.
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Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #295 on: October 11, 2016, 12:34:41 am »

No way these would get leaked.

Like I said, take those numbers with as many grains of salt as you want - but I think you're giving the Trump campaign a little too much credit.

According to the guy that posted these, Other/Undecided is getting a larger percentage in Utah than Trump is (they didn't include McMullin or Johnson as a separate option)

Quote
The theory the internal pollsters are running with is that people who choose "other candidate" will actually vote third party on the day - while if you list Johnson or McMullin, they will tend to get more support than they will actually get on the day.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #296 on: October 11, 2016, 07:17:38 am »

I think this is a leaked internal FL poll from "conservative-leaning Associated Industries of Florida"...

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/223845-national-democrats-pull-ads-new-associated-industries-poll-shows-patrick-murphy-trailing-marco-rubio-eight

10/2-10/4

Rubio - 49
Murphy - 41

Clinton - 44
Trump - 41
Johnson - 6
Stein - 2
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #297 on: October 11, 2016, 07:23:35 am »

Seems like there is a hispanic vote percentage voting HRC for top of the ticket and rubio for downballot
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Gass3268
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« Reply #298 on: October 11, 2016, 07:39:54 am »

Pre-pussygate
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #299 on: October 11, 2016, 08:48:59 am »

A former Cruz guy on another forum I post on says he got his hands on some brand-new Trump internals, via a contact in the campaign. Take these with as many grains of salt as you want, but here they are:

New Hampshire - Clinton +9
Pennsylvania - Clinton +7
Ohio - Clinton +2
Michigan - Clinton +6
Wisconsin - Clinton +4
Iowa - Trump +2
Virginia - Clinton +10
North Carolina - Clinton +5
Georgia - TIE
Florida - Clinton +4
Colorado - Clinton +7
Arizona - Trump +1
Nevada - Clinton +3
Utah - Trump +4

Trump's support in Utah is apparently in the low 30's.


What forum is this?
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