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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 60555 times)
Ozymandias
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« Reply #300 on: October 11, 2016, 09:55:29 am »
« edited: October 11, 2016, 10:03:20 am by Ozymandias »

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785854945136353280

mike murphy ‏@murphymike  5m5 minutes ago
mike murphy Retweeted Donald J. Trump
Actually, nope. Just saw legit private polling done AFTER DEBATE.  You are down by double digits. #YugeDisastah #BigLoser

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785856534890905600

mike murphy ‏@murphymike  2m2 minutes ago
mike murphy Retweeted Robert Costa
Just saw private natl poll with Trump unfav at 66%(!)… so OK Trumpolini, teach us!  #IdiotNominee

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785857249734385665

mike murphy ‏@murphymike  4m4 minutes ago
mike murphy Retweeted Warren Luke Tarbiat
Even worse than the -11% in the highly respected NBC/WSJ poll…

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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #301 on: October 11, 2016, 09:57:01 am »

mike murphy is out for revenge.

well, it's his own fail...if some campaign would have been able to find all those trump tapes, it would have been his own.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #302 on: October 11, 2016, 10:22:51 am »

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/10/theres-nothing-better-than-a-scared-rich-candidate/497522/

I would take anything from Mike Murphy with a grain of salt. He completely failed Jeb. Internal national polls not really helpful either.

Quote
For instance, the super pac consistently bought broadcast-television advertising in the biggest, most expensive markets at the highest possible rates. It FedExed tabletlike mailers to New Hampshire voters that played a documentary about Bush’s life, and put just 1.4 percent of its budget toward digital ads, an abnormally tiny amount for a top super pac, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #303 on: October 11, 2016, 09:19:03 pm »

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/12/us/politics/donald-trump-gop.html

"Mrs. Clinton’s campaign has concluded that at least two traditionally Republican states, Georgia and Arizona, are realistic targets for her campaign to win over. And Republican polling has found that Mr. Trump is at dire risk of losing Georgia, according to people briefed on the polls, who spoke on the condition of anonymity."
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dspNY
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« Reply #304 on: October 12, 2016, 04:10:37 pm »

DCCC supposedly has Stephanie Murphy ahead of Rep. John Mica by a 45-43 margin in FL-7, and Clinton ahead by a 47-36 margin

http://2vmhfw1isbe32j3tgn3epw3x.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/FL-07-Poll-Release-2016.10.11.pdf

Using the 5 point rule, Mica is narrowly ahead but Clinton leads by 6 in a district that has an R+4 PVI, meaning that she is in very good shape in the I-4
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #305 on: October 13, 2016, 02:10:57 am »

From a Politico piece.

Img
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Nhoj
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« Reply #306 on: October 13, 2016, 12:09:58 pm »

From a Politico piece.

Img

I Would note that the repubs didn't have gerrymanders in pretty much every state in 08.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #307 on: October 13, 2016, 12:15:02 pm »

From a Politico piece.

Img

I Would note that the repubs didn't have gerrymanders in pretty much every state in 08.

Plus Blue Dogs were still a thing.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #308 on: October 13, 2016, 01:02:38 pm »



Rep. Joe Heck is still slightly ahead of Catherine Cortez Masto in the U.S. Senate race but Hillary Clinton is now significantly in front of Donald Trump in Nevada, according to a new GOP poll.

Heck is ahead 47-44 while Hillary Clinton leads 45-39. The survey, taken by the well-respected Public Opinion Strategies for the Senate Leadership Fund this week, is of 600 registered voters and has a 4 percent margin of error. (It has 21 percent Hispanic respondents.)
http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/heck-hanging-onto-lead-trump-falling-behind-in-new-gop-poll
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #309 on: October 13, 2016, 01:14:21 pm »

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/hillary-clinton-democrats-downballot-229718

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A source close to the Clinton campaign...believes it is comfortably ahead — Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Nevada
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NV less likely to flip than FL/WI
xingkerui
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« Reply #310 on: October 13, 2016, 01:18:16 pm »

They're not wrong. Trump was never going to win Nevada.
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dspNY
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« Reply #311 on: October 13, 2016, 01:44:53 pm »

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/hillary-clinton-democrats-downballot-229718

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A source close to the Clinton campaign...believes it is comfortably ahead — Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Nevada

That would explain why Trump has consolidated to a 4 state campaign (PA, OH, NC, FL). He has to win them all. Clinton only needs one. Right now, Clinton is winning them all
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dspNY
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« Reply #312 on: October 14, 2016, 08:31:41 am »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #313 on: October 14, 2016, 08:32:26 am »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

Hillary Clinton has never lost South Dakota...
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #314 on: October 14, 2016, 08:40:09 am »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-04/which-states-can-gary-johnson-and-jill-stein-spoil

Clarity Campaign Labs is projecting Montana to be a 1.1 Trump win. A Johnson surge or Trump collapse could move it in her favor.

Img


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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #315 on: October 14, 2016, 08:47:57 am »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-04/which-states-can-gary-johnson-and-jill-stein-spoil

Clarity Campaign Labs is projecting Montana to be a 1.1 Trump win. A Johnson surge or Trump collapse could move it in her favor.

Img




They're dreaming.  I can't see the third party vote breaking double digits anywhere except Utah, NM, and maybe Alaska.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #316 on: October 14, 2016, 08:50:52 am »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-04/which-states-can-gary-johnson-and-jill-stein-spoil

Clarity Campaign Labs is projecting Montana to be a 1.1 Trump win. A Johnson surge or Trump collapse could move it in her favor.


They're dreaming.  I can't see the third party vote breaking double digits anywhere except Utah, NM, and maybe Alaska.

Yeah, they really are. At least a month ago it would have been cute theorizing, but it's very clear in the polling that a regular 3rd party collapse is well underway.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #317 on: October 14, 2016, 09:03:37 am »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-04/which-states-can-gary-johnson-and-jill-stein-spoil

Clarity Campaign Labs is projecting Montana to be a 1.1 Trump win. A Johnson surge or Trump collapse could move it in her favor.

Img



Arkansas? Oklahoma? They can't be serious.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #318 on: October 14, 2016, 09:12:35 am »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-04/which-states-can-gary-johnson-and-jill-stein-spoil

Clarity Campaign Labs is projecting Montana to be a 1.1 Trump win. A Johnson surge or Trump collapse could move it in her favor.

Img



Arkansas? Oklahoma? They can't be serious.

Well if third party vote share was 16% and took exclusively from Trump it is possible but it's not anywhere close to what actually will happen.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #319 on: October 14, 2016, 09:18:00 am »

Montana MAYBE. The others are insanity (and not states historically friendly to 3rd parties)
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #320 on: October 14, 2016, 12:18:06 pm »

Well, Monmouth's IN/MO poll match Clarity's expectation exactly, and the AZ margin is close to the polling average.

Considering that polling is sparse in Okalahoma/Arkansas/Montana, maybe we have to suspend our disbelief for this crazy 2016.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #321 on: October 14, 2016, 12:26:52 pm »

Well, Monmouth's IN/MO poll match Clarity's expectation exactly, and the AZ margin is close to the polling average.

Considering that polling is sparse in Okalahoma/Arkansas/Montana, maybe we have to suspend our disbelief for this crazy 2016.

Oklahoma and Arkansas are along with West Virginia the quintessential Trump states.
It's no coincidence that they trended sharply Republican during the Obama years.
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dspNY
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« Reply #322 on: October 16, 2016, 01:45:15 pm »
« Edited: October 16, 2016, 01:46:53 pm by dspNY »

CNN Inside Politics: Internal Republican polling has Trump trailing by double digits in PA and NH. As a result, Toomey and Ayotte also trail, but only by a few points. In NV, their polling has Trump "trailing by single digits, but Joe Heck up a little." That information is in the CNN embedded video.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/16/politics/ip-forecast-clinton-red-states-trump-down-ballot/index.html
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dspNY
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« Reply #323 on: October 16, 2016, 01:52:51 pm »

Other tidbits on AZ and GA: Clinton's team thinks they have a better shot at AZ than GA. Robby Mook doesn't want to expand the map because his thinking is to get the 270 EVs as painlessly as possible. However there are talks to plan trips to AZ and/or GA in the last week or two if their polling says they're in striking distance. They consider GA winnable but tough because the Atlanta suburbs are still behaving more like traditional GOP suburbs than the DC, Charlotte or Research Triangle suburbs
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #324 on: October 16, 2016, 02:01:48 pm »

Other tidbits on AZ and GA: Clinton's team thinks they have a better shot at AZ than GA. Robby Mook doesn't want to expand the map because his thinking is to get the 270 EVs as painlessly as possible. However there are talks to plan trips to AZ and/or GA in the last week or two if their polling says they're in striking distance. They consider GA winnable but tough because the Atlanta suburbs are still behaving more like traditional GOP suburbs than the DC, Charlotte or Research Triangle suburbs
I can see that. It is where a Senior Developer and a Hospital Revenue Bureaucrat can still have 2.5 kids and still live like Republicans.
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