Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 24, 2019, 05:07:40 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 9 10 11 12 13 [14] 15 16 17 18 19 ... 32 Print
Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 60525 times)
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,422
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #325 on: October 16, 2016, 02:35:37 pm »

Other tidbits on AZ and GA: Clinton's team thinks they have a better shot at AZ than GA. Robby Mook doesn't want to expand the map because his thinking is to get the 270 EVs as painlessly as possible. However there are talks to plan trips to AZ and/or GA in the last week or two if their polling says they're in striking distance. They consider GA winnable but tough because the Atlanta suburbs are still behaving more like traditional GOP suburbs than the DC, Charlotte or Research Triangle suburbs

If these states' senate races were competitive then I'm pretty sure she would contest them more vigorously.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,473
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #326 on: October 16, 2016, 02:47:10 pm »

Other tidbits on AZ and GA: Clinton's team thinks they have a better shot at AZ than GA. Robby Mook doesn't want to expand the map because his thinking is to get the 270 EVs as painlessly as possible. However there are talks to plan trips to AZ and/or GA in the last week or two if their polling says they're in striking distance. They consider GA winnable but tough because the Atlanta suburbs are still behaving more like traditional GOP suburbs than the DC, Charlotte or Research Triangle suburbs

Hmmm that's interesting strategic logic there. I understand the concept of wanting to focus time and resources on OH,FL, and NC and a lesser extent NV, but I think they might be playing it too safe in the case of AZ, which statewide polling and Trump's own internals clearly consider to be endangered, judging by his repeated recent visits to the state, and it is worth it in the long term to boost Dem turnout and infrastructure in a state that is starting to shift purple. GA, I can understand considering the structural advantages the Reps have and how difficult it is to get that extra 1% to move it across the finish line, not to mention the cost of the Atlanta media market.

However, I would trade IA for AZ any day as a medium and longer term investment.
Logged
calvinhobbesliker
Rookie
*
Posts: 33


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #327 on: October 16, 2016, 04:02:39 pm »

Other tidbits on AZ and GA: Clinton's team thinks they have a better shot at AZ than GA. Robby Mook doesn't want to expand the map because his thinking is to get the 270 EVs as painlessly as possible. However there are talks to plan trips to AZ and/or GA in the last week or two if their polling says they're in striking distance. They consider GA winnable but tough because the Atlanta suburbs are still behaving more like traditional GOP suburbs than the DC, Charlotte or Research Triangle suburbs

Hmmm that's interesting strategic logic there. I understand the concept of wanting to focus time and resources on OH,FL, and NC and a lesser extent NV, but I think they might be playing it too safe in the case of AZ, which statewide polling and Trump's own internals clearly consider to be endangered, judging by his repeated recent visits to the state, and it is worth it in the long term to boost Dem turnout and infrastructure in a state that is starting to shift purple. GA, I can understand considering the structural advantages the Reps have and how difficult it is to get that extra 1% to move it across the finish line, not to mention the cost of the Atlanta media market.

However, I would trade IA for AZ any day as a medium and longer term investment.

I think they care more about running up the score in PA, NH, NC, and maybe Florida to try and win the Senate races there, instead of going for AZ/GA which would look nice on the final map but don't (right now) have competitive Senate races to justify the effort.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,651
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #328 on: October 16, 2016, 04:05:44 pm »

chelsea is going to be in arizona soon.

more like toe-dipping i guess.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,531


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #329 on: October 16, 2016, 05:08:49 pm »

NBC article on Arizona today - nothing about internal polls but related to the posts above.

Arizona seems to be the prime candidate for playing the role Indiana did in 2008—a state that one wouldn't expect to tip over to the Democrat, but where a serious asymmetry in ground game coupled with a bad macro environment for the Republican makes for a surprise.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-risk-losing-arizona-state-officials-say-n667281
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,885
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #330 on: October 16, 2016, 05:14:16 pm »

Ads only help very marginally and it's not like Trump is spending anything in AZ or GA either. If Hillary wins by over 7% nationally then AZ is possible and GA at maybe 8% or so. I would add an Atlanta rally because it's easy to schedule between FL and NC visits.
Logged
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,929
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #331 on: October 16, 2016, 06:08:53 pm »

Lake Research (D) finds Trump +1 on behalf of the Alaska Democratic Party, 500 likely voters

http://midnightsunak.com/2016/10/16/midnight-sun-exclusive-new-poll-shows-trump-clinton-tied-alaska/

Trump 37% (-1)
Clinton 36% (+6)
Johnson 7% (-4)
Stein 3% (+1)

Results as compared to 8/9-14
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,197
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #332 on: October 16, 2016, 06:09:56 pm »

Probably something like +5, then, which sounds right.
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,666


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #333 on: October 16, 2016, 06:50:21 pm »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

How does NBC define lean versus safe?
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,593
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #334 on: October 16, 2016, 06:56:28 pm »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

How does NBC define lean versus safe?

I don't know...I don't work for them and they haven't revealed the secret sauce recipe

Alaska amazingly will move to Lean Republican with this poll. Even taking into account that this is a Dem internal, the last four polls have been Trump by 8, 6, 3, and now 1. Each pollster (Ivan Moore Research and Lake Research) has shown a five point shift to Clinton since the first debate and the Access Hollywood tapes
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,666


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #335 on: October 16, 2016, 07:06:39 pm »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

How does NBC define lean versus safe?

I don't know...I don't work for them and they haven't revealed the secret sauce recipe

My one question, cheap Google Consumer Research South Dakota poll that's currently in the field is only half-done, but so far, I can tell you there are no real surprises except perhaps the Johnson percentage.  It's pretty much in line with what I expected from South Dakota.
Logged
Minnesota Mike
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 925


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #336 on: October 16, 2016, 10:23:04 pm »

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854852709679104

MN-03 CD: SUSA Poll

Clinton 48%
Trump 35%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%
Other/Undecided 11%

Obama won this district in 2012 by less than 1%.



Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,682
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #337 on: October 16, 2016, 10:27:27 pm »

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854852709679104

MN-03 CD: SUSA Poll

Clinton 48%
Trump 35%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%
Other/Undecided 11%

Obama won this district in 2012 by less than 1%.

This doesn't seem like an internal but it does show that Clinton will romp Trump in Minnesota.
Logged
Minnesota Mike
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 925


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #338 on: October 16, 2016, 10:30:40 pm »

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854852709679104

MN-03 CD: SUSA Poll

Clinton 48%
Trump 35%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%
Other/Undecided 11%

Obama won this district in 2012 by less than 1%.

This doesn't seem like an internal but it does show that Clinton will romp Trump in Minnesota.

Not an Internal. Didn't know the best place to post it and didn't think it deserved it's on thread so I figured it would be alright here.
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,197
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #339 on: October 16, 2016, 10:31:11 pm »

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854852709679104

MN-03 CD: SUSA Poll

Clinton 48%
Trump 35%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%
Other/Undecided 11%

Obama won this district in 2012 by less than 1%.

This doesn't seem like an internal but it does show that Clinton will romp Trump in Minnesota.

Not an Internal. Didn't know the best place to post it and didn't think it deserved it's on thread so I figured it would be alright here.

You're good. I think there is precedent for CD polls being dumped here. Good looking #s indeed.
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,593
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #340 on: October 16, 2016, 10:32:00 pm »

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854852709679104

MN-03 CD: SUSA Poll

Clinton 48%
Trump 35%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%
Other/Undecided 11%

Obama won this district in 2012 by less than 1%.





Oof, if Clinton is winning this kind of district by 13, she will be competitive in counties like Delaware County (OH), Sheboygan (WI), and will win Northeast Iowa by the margins required to carry the state
Logged
Fargobison
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,500



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #341 on: October 16, 2016, 10:39:39 pm »

MN must be a bloodbath if that poll is remotely on point.
Logged
NV less likely to flip than FL/WI
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,116
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #342 on: October 16, 2016, 10:45:52 pm »

If that's at all accurate, Paulsen is definitely in trouble.
Logged
Fargobison
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,500



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #343 on: October 16, 2016, 10:46:25 pm »

If that's at all accurate, Paulsen is definitely in trouble.

He is up by 11

Quote
KSTP/SurveyUSA: Erik Paulsen (R) leads Terri Bonoff (D) 49%-38% with 13% undecided in 3rd District congressional race.

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854665761161216
Logged
NV less likely to flip than FL/WI
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,116
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #344 on: October 16, 2016, 10:48:52 pm »

If that's at all accurate, Paulsen is definitely in trouble.

He is up by 11

Quote
KSTP/SurveyUSA: Erik Paulsen (R) leads Terri Bonoff (D) 49%-38% with 13% undecided in 3rd District congressional race.

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854665761161216

Geez, that's a lot of ticket-splitters.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,651
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #345 on: October 16, 2016, 10:49:53 pm »

it will be fun to figure out, which demographics, sub-cultures, regions and states are going to denounce trump the most.
Logged
psychprofessor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,080


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #346 on: October 17, 2016, 10:52:07 am »

Hmmmm.....

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 9m9 minutes ago Washington, DC

Nate Cohn Retweeted Patrick Svitek

A real 'whoa if true'

Nate Cohn added,
Patrick Svitek @PatrickSvitek
Just in: @HillaryClinton's campaign is launching a one-week ad buy in Texas, per an aide.
0 replies 21 retweets 52 likes
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,730
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #347 on: October 17, 2016, 10:55:37 am »

https://www.scribd.com/document/327883693/CA-07-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +17 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 points in 2008 and 4 points in 2012. Woah if true.
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,085
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #348 on: October 17, 2016, 10:56:00 am »

Hmmmm.....

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 9m9 minutes ago Washington, DC

Nate Cohn Retweeted Patrick Svitek

A real 'whoa if true'

Nate Cohn added,
Patrick Svitek @PatrickSvitek
Just in: @HillaryClinton's campaign is launching a one-week ad buy in Texas, per an aide.
0 replies 21 retweets 52 likes


Surprise. So the nightmare scenario is happening. Trump is being forced to defend Texas.
Logged
TarHeelDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,166
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #349 on: October 17, 2016, 10:56:34 am »

Hmmmm.....

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 9m9 minutes ago Washington, DC

Nate Cohn Retweeted Patrick Svitek

A real 'whoa if true'

Nate Cohn added,
Patrick Svitek @PatrickSvitek
Just in: @HillaryClinton's campaign is launching a one-week ad buy in Texas, per an aide.
0 replies 21 retweets 52 likes

Smart move. Can't wait to see how it plays out.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 9 10 11 12 13 [14] 15 16 17 18 19 ... 32 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC