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  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 63873 times)
Lief 🐋
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« Reply #350 on: October 17, 2016, 10:57:49 pm »

Josh K is a pretty pathetic GOP-spinning mouthpiece. They are likely in worse shape than that in those senate races.

Yeah, if this is what the GOP is spinning through sympathetic "journalists" then they really may be collapsing across the board.
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gf20202
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« Reply #351 on: October 17, 2016, 11:03:59 pm »
« Edited: October 17, 2016, 11:09:32 pm by gf20202 »

Josh K is a pretty pathetic GOP-spinning mouthpiece. They are likely in worse shape than that in those senate races.

Yeah, if this is what the GOP is spinning through sympathetic "journalists" then they really may be collapsing across the board.

This was his next tweet:

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He clarified that the Wisconsin isn't among those seven, which means FL is in margin of error? Don't believe it but it would have to be that.

Bayh losing isn't losing currently in IN. The GOP's internal polling is garbage if they believe that.
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Vosem
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« Reply #352 on: October 17, 2016, 11:08:55 pm »

Per piecing together Kraushaar's replies to people, Republicans lead in 6 of the 7 races within the margin of error; the one where the Democrat leads is NV. The 6 races in question seem to be PA/NH/NC/IN/MO/FL; he repudiates someone suggesting Wisconsin saying that's not within the margin of error. Presumably Democrats are therefore pretty safely up in Illinois and Wisconsin.

So...Republican internal polling is suggesting that if the election were right now, the Democrats would gain only 2 Senate seats (IL/WI), but that with even a small push they would gain 8 (those two, plus MO/IN/NC/PA/NH/FL; he notes that the Democrats are putting up the weakest effort in FL, so presumably it would be last to flip). That would be enough to make anyone panicky.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #353 on: October 17, 2016, 11:09:41 pm »

Josh K is a pretty pathetic GOP-spinning mouthpiece. They are likely in worse shape than that in those senate races.

Yeah, if this is what the GOP is spinning through sympathetic "journalists" then they really may be collapsing across the board.

This was his next tweet:

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The Polls show Dems currently trailing in six of the seven toss-up senate races? If Rubio-Murphy isn't in the margin of error, that means that the GOP is claiming to have polling have Johnson up in WI and Bayh losing in IN. It's garbage.

As was already mentioned Josh spins as hard as possible for the GOP. Republicans tell him stuff sometimes because they know he'll uncritically repeat verbatim anything he hears from Republicans. This is basically a NSCC press release. The only notable thing is them admitting Trump is collapsing. The comments about the Senate races I take with a grain of salt.
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gf20202
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« Reply #354 on: October 17, 2016, 11:13:34 pm »

Per piecing together Kraushaar's replies to people, Republicans lead in 6 of the 7 races within the margin of error; the one where the Democrat leads is NV. The 6 races in question seem to be PA/NH/NC/IN/MO/FL; he repudiates someone suggesting Wisconsin saying that's not within the margin of error. Presumably Democrats are therefore pretty safely up in Illinois and Wisconsin.

So...Republican internal polling is suggesting that if the election were right now, the Democrats would gain only 2 Senate seats (IL/WI), but that with even a small push they would gain 8 (those two, plus MO/IN/NC/PA/NH/FL; he notes that the Democrats are putting up the weakest effort in FL, so presumably it would be last to flip). That would be enough to make anyone panicky.
You have it right apparently. He said it was FL and not WI, which makes zero sense. How is Rubio only up 3 in FL and yet Bayh is losing in IN? Just proves GOP internal polling is crap if that's the case.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #355 on: October 18, 2016, 01:19:07 am »

Yeah looks like the GOP is operating on really bad internals all over again. I guess they didn't learn anything from 2012.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #356 on: October 18, 2016, 06:50:52 am »

I love it how the right leaning writers on twitter are retweeting this like its a good thing, when really it shows that if this election behaves the same way it has every cycle since 2006 the Democrats will probably pick up 6-8 seats. Especially with the Clinton camp reconfiguring their message to emphasize the importance of electing Democrats down ballot.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #357 on: October 18, 2016, 07:00:00 am »

He added another tweet:

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The 7th race is Florida, by the way, not Wisconsin (thank god).

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Gass3268
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« Reply #358 on: October 18, 2016, 07:01:06 am »


Someone should give him some water.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #359 on: October 18, 2016, 07:41:54 am »

If their polls are showing huge margins for Hillary Clinton and their Republican Senate candidates within the MoE, they're assuming a large number of Republicans disaffected with Trump will show up on Election Day anyway to cast a vote against Trump and then vote R downballot. A questionable assumption.
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Torie
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« Reply #360 on: October 18, 2016, 07:48:53 am »

If their polls are showing huge margins for Hillary Clinton and their Republican Senate candidates within the MoE, they're assuming a large number of Republicans disaffected with Trump will show up on Election Day anyway to cast a vote against Trump and then vote R downballot. A questionable assumption.

Does this theory impress you at all? So far, I see little evidence myself of down ballot damage to Pubs arising from the Trump tanking.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #361 on: October 18, 2016, 07:50:53 am »

Not too worried about the Senate, the 538 model has the Democrats chances now in the 70's to reclaim the body.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #362 on: October 18, 2016, 07:53:02 am »

If their polls are showing huge margins for Hillary Clinton and their Republican Senate candidates within the MoE, they're assuming a large number of Republicans disaffected with Trump will show up on Election Day anyway to cast a vote against Trump and then vote R downballot. A questionable assumption.

Does this theory impress you at all? So far, I see little evidence myself of down ballot damage to Pubs arising from the Trump tanking.

Oh, I can easily imagine that Republican senators have some benefit from looking moderate next to Trump. I'm also thinking that presidential candidates aside, this election was likely to favor Republicans because Obama is coming off of two turns. The fact we're discussing D gains of only 4-5 seats with a reasonable Hillary win in a cycle where Rs are defending 24 seats to the Dems' 10 proves that. For me, it's all about who actually shows up to vote, and who stays home.  
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #363 on: October 18, 2016, 07:55:44 am »

Not too worried about the Senate, the 538 model has the Democrats chances now in the 70's to reclaim the body.
Umm... if there's a 30% chance of rain, are you going to drive 2 hours to the beach?
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #364 on: October 18, 2016, 12:21:20 pm »

https://twitter.com/skoczela/status/788417182996783104

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Trump down 14 in New Hampshire, down 11 in Pennsylvania. Probably exaggerated BS but still.
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #365 on: October 18, 2016, 12:56:25 pm »

Senate republicans have shared internal polls to the National Review and some of the results are interesting

According to these polls
Clinton +14 in NH
Clinton +11 in PA
Clinton nar­rowly beats Trump in AZ
Trump +2 in MO

And senate
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What are your thoughts? Belieavable?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #366 on: October 18, 2016, 01:03:13 pm »

The Senate numbers are probably actually worse than that.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #367 on: October 18, 2016, 02:17:08 pm »

The Senate numbers are probably actually worse than that.

It really feels like the right is trying to push this message that their Senate candidates are hanging on, which makes me think that it's starting to slip away.
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swf541
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« Reply #368 on: October 18, 2016, 02:42:29 pm »

The Senate numbers are probably actually worse than that.

It really feels like the right is trying to push this message that their Senate candidates are hanging on, which makes me think that it's starting to slip away.

Very much so
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RJEvans
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« Reply #369 on: October 18, 2016, 03:09:40 pm »

Senate republicans have shared internal polls to the National Review and some of the results are interesting

According to these polls
Clinton +14 in NH
Clinton +11 in PA
Clinton nar­rowly beats Trump in AZ
Trump +2 in MO

And senate
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What are your thoughts? Belieavable?

Question is, will NH and PA be called at poll closing? If they are, we know what type of night it's going to be.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #370 on: October 18, 2016, 03:16:18 pm »

Senate republicans have shared internal polls to the National Review and some of the results are interesting

According to these polls
Clinton +14 in NH
Clinton +11 in PA
Clinton nar­rowly beats Trump in AZ
Trump +2 in MO

And senate
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What are your thoughts? Belieavable?

Question is, will NH and PA be called at poll closing? If they are, we know what type of night it's going to be.

For President, probably both will be called immediately.  For Senate, neither.
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swf541
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« Reply #371 on: October 18, 2016, 03:18:45 pm »

Senate republicans have shared internal polls to the National Review and some of the results are interesting

According to these polls
Clinton +14 in NH
Clinton +11 in PA
Clinton nar­rowly beats Trump in AZ
Trump +2 in MO

And senate
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What are your thoughts? Belieavable?

Question is, will NH and PA be called at poll closing? If they are, we know what type of night it's going to be.

For President, probably both will be called immediately.  For Senate, neither.

Probably,  bigger question is do the senate races get classified as too early to call or too close to call
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #372 on: October 18, 2016, 05:24:33 pm »

Got a fundraising email from Johnson today. One section of interest:

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Ebsy
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« Reply #373 on: October 18, 2016, 05:26:27 pm »

Got a fundraising email from Johnson today. One section of interest:

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lol
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Gass3268
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« Reply #374 on: October 18, 2016, 05:26:35 pm »

Got a fundraising email from Johnson today. One section of interest:

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This is from the GWU poll.
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