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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 61100 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #375 on: October 18, 2016, 07:50:53 am »

Not too worried about the Senate, the 538 model has the Democrats chances now in the 70's to reclaim the body.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #376 on: October 18, 2016, 07:53:02 am »

If their polls are showing huge margins for Hillary Clinton and their Republican Senate candidates within the MoE, they're assuming a large number of Republicans disaffected with Trump will show up on Election Day anyway to cast a vote against Trump and then vote R downballot. A questionable assumption.

Does this theory impress you at all? So far, I see little evidence myself of down ballot damage to Pubs arising from the Trump tanking.

Oh, I can easily imagine that Republican senators have some benefit from looking moderate next to Trump. I'm also thinking that presidential candidates aside, this election was likely to favor Republicans because Obama is coming off of two turns. The fact we're discussing D gains of only 4-5 seats with a reasonable Hillary win in a cycle where Rs are defending 24 seats to the Dems' 10 proves that. For me, it's all about who actually shows up to vote, and who stays home.  
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #377 on: October 18, 2016, 07:55:44 am »

Not too worried about the Senate, the 538 model has the Democrats chances now in the 70's to reclaim the body.
Umm... if there's a 30% chance of rain, are you going to drive 2 hours to the beach?
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #378 on: October 18, 2016, 12:21:20 pm »

https://twitter.com/skoczela/status/788417182996783104

Img


Trump down 14 in New Hampshire, down 11 in Pennsylvania. Probably exaggerated BS but still.
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #379 on: October 18, 2016, 12:56:25 pm »

Senate republicans have shared internal polls to the National Review and some of the results are interesting

According to these polls
Clinton +14 in NH
Clinton +11 in PA
Clinton nar­rowly beats Trump in AZ
Trump +2 in MO

And senate
Quote
f the sev­en most com­pet­it­ive Sen­ate races, Re­pub­lic­ans are cling­ing to leads in six (Pennsylvania, Mis­souri, New Hamp­shire, Flor­ida, In­di­ana, and North Car­o­lina), and barely trail­ing in a sev­enth (Nevada).

What are your thoughts? Belieavable?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #380 on: October 18, 2016, 01:03:13 pm »

The Senate numbers are probably actually worse than that.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #381 on: October 18, 2016, 02:17:08 pm »

The Senate numbers are probably actually worse than that.

It really feels like the right is trying to push this message that their Senate candidates are hanging on, which makes me think that it's starting to slip away.
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IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
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« Reply #382 on: October 18, 2016, 02:42:08 pm »

Clinton will win definitely East Vermont/NH by more than 10. A 14-point lead is very plausible.
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swf541
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« Reply #383 on: October 18, 2016, 02:42:29 pm »

The Senate numbers are probably actually worse than that.

It really feels like the right is trying to push this message that their Senate candidates are hanging on, which makes me think that it's starting to slip away.

Very much so
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RJEvans
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« Reply #384 on: October 18, 2016, 03:09:40 pm »

Senate republicans have shared internal polls to the National Review and some of the results are interesting

According to these polls
Clinton +14 in NH
Clinton +11 in PA
Clinton nar­rowly beats Trump in AZ
Trump +2 in MO

And senate
Quote
f the sev­en most com­pet­it­ive Sen­ate races, Re­pub­lic­ans are cling­ing to leads in six (Pennsylvania, Mis­souri, New Hamp­shire, Flor­ida, In­di­ana, and North Car­o­lina), and barely trail­ing in a sev­enth (Nevada).

What are your thoughts? Belieavable?

Question is, will NH and PA be called at poll closing? If they are, we know what type of night it's going to be.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #385 on: October 18, 2016, 03:16:18 pm »

Senate republicans have shared internal polls to the National Review and some of the results are interesting

According to these polls
Clinton +14 in NH
Clinton +11 in PA
Clinton nar­rowly beats Trump in AZ
Trump +2 in MO

And senate
Quote
f the sev­en most com­pet­it­ive Sen­ate races, Re­pub­lic­ans are cling­ing to leads in six (Pennsylvania, Mis­souri, New Hamp­shire, Flor­ida, In­di­ana, and North Car­o­lina), and barely trail­ing in a sev­enth (Nevada).

What are your thoughts? Belieavable?

Question is, will NH and PA be called at poll closing? If they are, we know what type of night it's going to be.

For President, probably both will be called immediately.  For Senate, neither.
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swf541
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« Reply #386 on: October 18, 2016, 03:18:45 pm »

Senate republicans have shared internal polls to the National Review and some of the results are interesting

According to these polls
Clinton +14 in NH
Clinton +11 in PA
Clinton nar­rowly beats Trump in AZ
Trump +2 in MO

And senate
Quote
f the sev­en most com­pet­it­ive Sen­ate races, Re­pub­lic­ans are cling­ing to leads in six (Pennsylvania, Mis­souri, New Hamp­shire, Flor­ida, In­di­ana, and North Car­o­lina), and barely trail­ing in a sev­enth (Nevada).

What are your thoughts? Belieavable?

Question is, will NH and PA be called at poll closing? If they are, we know what type of night it's going to be.

For President, probably both will be called immediately.  For Senate, neither.

Probably,  bigger question is do the senate races get classified as too early to call or too close to call
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #387 on: October 18, 2016, 05:24:33 pm »

Got a fundraising email from Johnson today. One section of interest:

Quote
In a recent poll conducted by The Terrance Group and Lake Research Partners, we have reached 20% in key Central Plains states. Notably, we are also polling at 17% in Clinton's "home" state of New York and 12% in mountain states.

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Ebsy
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« Reply #388 on: October 18, 2016, 05:26:27 pm »

Got a fundraising email from Johnson today. One section of interest:

Quote
In a recent poll conducted by The Terrance Group and Lake Research Partners, we have reached 20% in key Central Plains states. Notably, we are also polling at 17% in Clinton's "home" state of New York and 12% in mountain states.

lol
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Gass3268
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« Reply #389 on: October 18, 2016, 05:26:35 pm »

Got a fundraising email from Johnson today. One section of interest:

Quote
In a recent poll conducted by The Terrance Group and Lake Research Partners, we have reached 20% in key Central Plains states. Notably, we are also polling at 17% in Clinton's "home" state of New York and 12% in mountain states.

This is from the GWU poll.
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Castro
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« Reply #390 on: October 18, 2016, 05:51:23 pm »

Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.
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Lok
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« Reply #391 on: October 18, 2016, 05:52:44 pm »

Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.
RIP GOP IN GA
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dspNY
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« Reply #392 on: October 18, 2016, 05:56:12 pm »

Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

Img
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #393 on: October 18, 2016, 05:58:11 pm »

i start wondering if the point of those polls is to wake up GOP base through sheer shock.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #394 on: October 18, 2016, 06:00:24 pm »

Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #395 on: October 18, 2016, 06:05:13 pm »

Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.

Anecdotally: I voted after work today in Forsyth County.  There was no wait, and perhaps a third of the voting machines were occupied.  The poll worker I asked said they'd had a steady stream, but it never got busy enough to require a line.  For comparison, when I voted early in 2012 there was a very long backup (same county, but different location).
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dspNY
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« Reply #396 on: October 18, 2016, 06:07:38 pm »

Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.

Priorities USA is going up with TV and radio ads in GA
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heatcharger
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« Reply #397 on: October 18, 2016, 06:17:06 pm »

Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.

Anecdotally: I voted after work today in Forsyth County.  There was no wait, and perhaps a third of the voting machines were occupied.  The poll worker I asked said they'd had a steady stream, but it never got busy enough to require a line.  For comparison, when I voted early in 2012 there was a very long backup (same county, but different location).

Well that's quite interesting. If Trump can't hold Romney's margins in the Atlanta exurbs, then he's probably at risk of losing Gwinnett and maybe Cobb County. There are enough potential Clinton voters to turn the state blue, but it's pretty late in the game to a make serious effort to make it happen.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #398 on: October 18, 2016, 06:24:21 pm »

Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.

https://twitter.com/guycecil/status/788489977512333312
The PAC is going into Georgia!
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Crumpets
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« Reply #399 on: October 18, 2016, 06:26:12 pm »

Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.

https://twitter.com/guycecil/status/788489977512333312
The PAC is going into Georgia!

I'm glad I don't live somewhere with segregated radio. Then again, I suppose it's one of the only ways to ensure minority groups get their fair share of air time.
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