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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 63946 times)
The Other Castro
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« Reply #500 on: October 28, 2016, 07:50:46 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  8m8 minutes ago
top D pollster: "changes incredibly exaggerated. some tightening. Trump fav better"

top R pollster: "some narrowing, not that significant"
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Brittain33
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« Reply #501 on: October 28, 2016, 07:54:58 am »

We've clearly seen this season that if Trump goes 7 days without feuding with a Khizr Khan or Alicia Machado, some Republican voters' embarrassment fades and they "rally 'round" their candidate.

Clinton's going to win regardless, it's just about some Senate and House races at this point.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #502 on: October 28, 2016, 08:10:21 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago
GOP pollster #2: as since March, Trump in 38%-42% range, Clinton 44%-48%. currently Trump in middle, Clinton in upper half. margin 6-7 pts
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #503 on: October 28, 2016, 08:18:34 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago
GOP pollster #2: as since March, Trump in 38%-42% range, Clinton 44%-48%. currently Trump in middle, Clinton in upper half. margin 6-7 pts

So what is most expected is a 4 to 6 point race....about 48 to 42. Maybe third parties will take 6 or 7 percent and leave 2 or 3% undecided. I expect 49-44-3-2-1-1
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #504 on: October 28, 2016, 08:43:12 am »

Another event could swing both to the extremes, Trump@38, Clinton @48.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #505 on: October 28, 2016, 08:47:39 am »

I would be very happy with a 7 to 8 point lead, but a victory is a victory.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #506 on: October 28, 2016, 09:54:03 am »

Not really an internal. PPP has a poll of FL for an anti-gun violence group:

http://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000158-0ab5-d236-ad5d-dab74e5e0001

Clinton 48
Trump 44

Murphy and Rubio tied at 46
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dspNY
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« Reply #507 on: October 29, 2016, 10:24:17 am »

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #508 on: October 29, 2016, 10:29:08 am »

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

If he did see, would he tell us about it? Smiley
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #509 on: October 29, 2016, 10:31:01 am »


all polls are rigged, eh? Wink

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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #510 on: October 29, 2016, 10:38:14 am »


Just partisan ones.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #511 on: October 29, 2016, 10:46:44 am »


they are doing all the CNBC polls.....take from that what you want.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #512 on: October 29, 2016, 01:55:10 pm »

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.
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ReapSow
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« Reply #513 on: October 29, 2016, 02:25:12 pm »

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

Ten days left, support for both candidates is mostly locked in, Clinton is dominating the early vote, and Trump hasn't closed the gap with Women, Hispanics, Blacks, Millennials, etc. to the point he needs to win. Republicans want and need Comeygate to bring Hillary down, but it seems to be wishful thinking at this point considering she had a consistent lead during the original email investigation and the narrative has changed from "case re-opened" to "Comey screwed up." The race is tightening, but do Trump sheep honestly think a b.s. news story is going to peel away millions of supporters from Clinton considering they already distrust her?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #514 on: October 29, 2016, 07:09:35 pm »

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.

You seem to girding your loins for some kind of crash ... which I just don't think is going to happen.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #515 on: October 29, 2016, 07:10:29 pm »

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.

You seem to girding your loins for some kind of crash ... which I just don't think is going to happen.

We've had zero numbers in any way, other than positive early voting numbers like usual. The white knuckles around here have been ridiculous.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #516 on: October 29, 2016, 07:20:22 pm »

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.

You seem to girding your loins for some kind of crash ... which I just don't think is going to happen.

We've had zero numbers in any way, other than positive early voting numbers like usual. The white knuckles around here have been ridiculous.

Yawn.... this seems like yet another media event for a few days based upon a lack of real news to talk about.

There aren't very many undecided voters out there anymore, and most Americans are tired about hearing yet another BS story, about Clinton's emails and server.

The only people that really care about it are a small handful of Trump supporters, desperately grasping for any straw in reach to suck down the last sip of their Tequila Sunrise, before they need to order a Tequila Sunset in the closing hours at 2 AM. (Made this a few times before, and its actually a pretty good drink)

http://www.food.com/recipe/tequila-sunset-449518
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #517 on: October 29, 2016, 09:05:28 pm »

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.

You seem to girding your loins for some kind of crash ... which I just don't think is going to happen.

I don't know if I'd use the word "crash", but I do expect her to take a significant hit in the averages once the next batch of post email polls are dropped. We'll see soon enough. Hopefully you're right and I'm not.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #518 on: October 31, 2016, 08:40:26 am »

Republican pollster North Star Opinion Research finds Don Bacon (R) leading Rep. Brad Ashford (D) 48-44 in NE-2:

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Trump also leads Clinton by 4 points:

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I'd say this is pretty good for Clinton considering it's a Republican internal with her trailing by as much as Ashford.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gop-poll-gives-don-bacon-late-edge-rare-pickup-opportunity-nebraska-brad-ashford-house?utm_content=buffer72397&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #519 on: October 31, 2016, 08:55:00 am »

ME-2 or NE-2 both look close. It'd be amusing if they both flipped and canceled each other out.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #520 on: October 31, 2016, 08:43:34 pm »

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/us/politics/hillary-clinton-campaign.html

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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #521 on: October 31, 2016, 08:54:48 pm »

That's very good to hear, indeed, and gives more credence to what was already the sense: the unaffiliateds are breaking hard for HRC and that's where the poll adv is. Not close to a sure thing, but a little extra evidence in that direction.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #522 on: October 31, 2016, 09:14:02 pm »

NC is either gone or very close to it at this point.
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Hammy
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« Reply #523 on: October 31, 2016, 09:26:10 pm »

If the polls coming out now and the next few days (which were taken at the peak of the Clinton-aspect of this) aren't showing a change, is it safe to say that barring any new developments there won't be any change from it?
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #524 on: October 31, 2016, 09:35:15 pm »

The Trump Tape was definitely more severe in its polling impact, with Monmouth showing Trump up Indiana 1 day, then down double digits the next, and Marquette having Trump up, then down...

It probably will take a week to understand the impact.

And the FBI story is too confusing for most people to digest, and the campaign is effectively countering back, and even has the support of hardline Republicans. Plus, tons of Trump oppo dumping tonight.
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