Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 15, 2019, 11:45:39 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 16 17 18 19 20 [21] 22 23 24 25 26 ... 32 Print
Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 61096 times)
Edgar Suit Larry
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,665
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #500 on: October 25, 2016, 10:53:35 am »

So, what we see is probably what we get with a week and change left.
Logged
Yank2133
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,095


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #501 on: October 25, 2016, 11:37:44 am »

"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712

That twitter feed is hilarious. These Trump supporters are in for a rude awakening on November 8th.
Logged
Gass3268
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,167
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #502 on: October 25, 2016, 11:41:54 am »

"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712

That twitter feed is hilarious. These Trump supporters are in for a rude awakening on November 8th.

The mocking these folks deserve...
Logged
Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,792
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #503 on: October 25, 2016, 05:13:54 pm »

John HarwoodVerified account
‏@JohnJHarwood
top GOP pollster: "What we're seeing is Johnson and Stein trending down, and going to Clinton."
Logged
BoAtlantis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 791


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #504 on: October 25, 2016, 06:02:27 pm »

John HarwoodVerified account
‏@JohnJHarwood
top GOP pollster: "What we're seeing is Johnson and Stein trending down, and going to Clinton."

I saw an article today that millennials are coming home for Clinton more and more, which dovetails nicely with what you said.
Logged
Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,792
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #505 on: October 26, 2016, 10:12:17 am »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 10:27:22 am by Castro »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY
top GOP pollster on Bloomberg Poll showing Trump +2 in FL: "such an outlier, I'm not going to believe it until confirmed by other surveys"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
second top GOP pollster on Bloomberg's +2 Trump poll in FL: "not correct"
Logged
Yank2133
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,095


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #506 on: October 26, 2016, 10:38:47 am »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 10:43:02 am by Yank2133 »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY
top GOP pollster on Bloomberg Poll showing Trump +2 in FL: "such an outlier, I'm not going to believe it until confirmed by other surveys"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
second top GOP pollster on Bloomberg's +2 Trump poll in FL: "not correct"

This was obvious just by looking at the early voting numbers. Selzer is a good pollster, but their LV screen is failing them here.
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #507 on: October 26, 2016, 10:42:31 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY
top GOP pollster on Bloomberg Poll showing Trump +2 in FL: "such an outlier, I'm not going to believe it until confirmed by other surveys"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
second top GOP pollster on Bloomberg's +2 Trump poll in FL: "not correct"

This obvious just by looking at the early voting numbers. Selzer is a good pollster, but their LV screen is failing them here.
Selzer has overestimated Trump this whole cycle, starting with the Iow caucuses.
Logged
Sorenroy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,169
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #508 on: October 27, 2016, 06:22:45 am »

Anyone know of any recent internals from Texas?
Logged
HillOfANight
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,466
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #509 on: October 27, 2016, 08:21:34 am »

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-27/inside-the-trump-bunker-with-12-days-to-go

Trump’s team... built a model, the “Battleground Optimizer Path to Victory,” to weight and rank the states that the data team believes are most critical to amassing the 270 electoral votes Trump needs to win the White House. On Oct. 18 they rank as follows:

1. Florida
2. Ohio
3. Pennsylvania
4. North Carolina
5. Georgia
Logged
Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,792
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #510 on: October 27, 2016, 10:19:36 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  10m10 minutes ago
GOP Senate strategist on Roy Blunt's precarious fate in MO: "1% race. think he wins"
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,621
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #511 on: October 27, 2016, 09:54:46 pm »



At a fundraiser for Brad Ashford tonight, Xavier Becerra said that he saw a poll showing Clinton +1 in Texas.
https://twitter.com/davesund/status/791832331170353152?lang=en
Logged
psychprofessor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,076


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #512 on: October 27, 2016, 10:01:00 pm »



At a fundraiser for Brad Ashford tonight, Xavier Becerra said that he saw a poll showing Clinton +1 in Texas.
https://twitter.com/davesund/status/791832331170353152?lang=en

Perhaps Trump needs to spend some time in the Mountain/SouthWest: AZ, UT, TX...who would have guessed these states would be +1, +3, +3 twelve days before election day?
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,621
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #513 on: October 27, 2016, 10:02:31 pm »

Perhaps Trump needs to spend some time in the Mountain/SouthWest: AZ, UT, TX...who would have guessed these states would be +1, +3, +3 twelve days before election day?

even if hillary loses all of them...not really ulikely.....team trump will have spent an amazing amount of their scarce ressources defending them....
Logged
Ronnie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,846
United States
P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #514 on: October 27, 2016, 11:30:16 pm »

Plus, I'm pretty sure that Trump campaigning in Utah would actually diminish his numbers there.
Logged
Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,792
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #515 on: October 28, 2016, 07:50:46 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  8m8 minutes ago
top D pollster: "changes incredibly exaggerated. some tightening. Trump fav better"

top R pollster: "some narrowing, not that significant"
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,593


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #516 on: October 28, 2016, 07:54:58 am »

We've clearly seen this season that if Trump goes 7 days without feuding with a Khizr Khan or Alicia Machado, some Republican voters' embarrassment fades and they "rally 'round" their candidate.

Clinton's going to win regardless, it's just about some Senate and House races at this point.
Logged
Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,792
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #517 on: October 28, 2016, 08:10:21 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago
GOP pollster #2: as since March, Trump in 38%-42% range, Clinton 44%-48%. currently Trump in middle, Clinton in upper half. margin 6-7 pts
Logged
Edgar Suit Larry
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,665
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #518 on: October 28, 2016, 08:18:34 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago
GOP pollster #2: as since March, Trump in 38%-42% range, Clinton 44%-48%. currently Trump in middle, Clinton in upper half. margin 6-7 pts

So what is most expected is a 4 to 6 point race....about 48 to 42. Maybe third parties will take 6 or 7 percent and leave 2 or 3% undecided. I expect 49-44-3-2-1-1
Logged
HillOfANight
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,466
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #519 on: October 28, 2016, 08:43:12 am »

Another event could swing both to the extremes, Trump@38, Clinton @48.
Logged
Fusionmunster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,490


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #520 on: October 28, 2016, 08:47:39 am »

I would be very happy with a 7 to 8 point lead, but a victory is a victory.
Logged
Wiz in Wis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,509


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #521 on: October 28, 2016, 09:54:03 am »

Not really an internal. PPP has a poll of FL for an anti-gun violence group:

http://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000158-0ab5-d236-ad5d-dab74e5e0001

Clinton 48
Trump 44

Murphy and Rubio tied at 46
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,583
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #522 on: October 29, 2016, 10:24:17 am »

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,657
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #523 on: October 29, 2016, 10:29:08 am »

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

If he did see, would he tell us about it? Smiley
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,621
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #524 on: October 29, 2016, 10:31:01 am »

If he did see, would he tell us about it? Smiley

all polls are rigged, eh? Wink

Logged
Pages: 1 ... 16 17 18 19 20 [21] 22 23 24 25 26 ... 32 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC