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  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 61098 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #525 on: October 29, 2016, 10:38:14 am »

If he did see, would he tell us about it? Smiley

all polls are rigged, eh? Wink



Just partisan ones.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #526 on: October 29, 2016, 10:46:44 am »

Just partisan ones.

they are doing all the CNBC polls.....take from that what you want.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #527 on: October 29, 2016, 01:55:10 pm »

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.
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ReapSow
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« Reply #528 on: October 29, 2016, 02:25:12 pm »

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

Ten days left, support for both candidates is mostly locked in, Clinton is dominating the early vote, and Trump hasn't closed the gap with Women, Hispanics, Blacks, Millennials, etc. to the point he needs to win. Republicans want and need Comeygate to bring Hillary down, but it seems to be wishful thinking at this point considering she had a consistent lead during the original email investigation and the narrative has changed from "case re-opened" to "Comey screwed up." The race is tightening, but do Trump sheep honestly think a b.s. news story is going to peel away millions of supporters from Clinton considering they already distrust her?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #529 on: October 29, 2016, 07:09:35 pm »

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.

You seem to girding your loins for some kind of crash ... which I just don't think is going to happen.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #530 on: October 29, 2016, 07:10:29 pm »

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.

You seem to girding your loins for some kind of crash ... which I just don't think is going to happen.

We've had zero numbers in any way, other than positive early voting numbers like usual. The white knuckles around here have been ridiculous.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #531 on: October 29, 2016, 07:20:22 pm »

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.

You seem to girding your loins for some kind of crash ... which I just don't think is going to happen.

We've had zero numbers in any way, other than positive early voting numbers like usual. The white knuckles around here have been ridiculous.

Yawn.... this seems like yet another media event for a few days based upon a lack of real news to talk about.

There aren't very many undecided voters out there anymore, and most Americans are tired about hearing yet another BS story, about Clinton's emails and server.

The only people that really care about it are a small handful of Trump supporters, desperately grasping for any straw in reach to suck down the last sip of their Tequila Sunrise, before they need to order a Tequila Sunset in the closing hours at 2 AM. (Made this a few times before, and its actually a pretty good drink)

http://www.food.com/recipe/tequila-sunset-449518
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IceSpear
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« Reply #532 on: October 29, 2016, 09:05:28 pm »

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.

You seem to girding your loins for some kind of crash ... which I just don't think is going to happen.

I don't know if I'd use the word "crash", but I do expect her to take a significant hit in the averages once the next batch of post email polls are dropped. We'll see soon enough. Hopefully you're right and I'm not.
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Castro
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« Reply #533 on: October 31, 2016, 08:40:26 am »

Republican pollster North Star Opinion Research finds Don Bacon (R) leading Rep. Brad Ashford (D) 48-44 in NE-2:

Quote
Republican polling shows the party's chances improving in Nebraska's 2nd District, one of the GOP's three top opportunities to knock off a Democratic incumbent this year.

Retired Brig. Gen. Don Bacon led incumbent Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford 48 to 44 percent among registered voters in a North Star Opinion Research poll, shared first with Roll Call. The poll was conducted Oct. 22-24 for the Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC tied to House GOP leadership. The fund has invested $950,000 on TV and digital in the Omaha-based district.

Trump also leads Clinton by 4 points:

Quote
In the presidential race, Republican Donald Trump led Democratic rival Hillary Clinton 44 to 40 percent in the district, with 8 percent supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2 percent backing the Green Party's Jill Stein.

I'd say this is pretty good for Clinton considering it's a Republican internal with her trailing by as much as Ashford.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gop-poll-gives-don-bacon-late-edge-rare-pickup-opportunity-nebraska-brad-ashford-house?utm_content=buffer72397&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
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« Reply #534 on: October 31, 2016, 08:55:00 am »

ME-2 or NE-2 both look close. It'd be amusing if they both flipped and canceled each other out.
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« Reply #535 on: October 31, 2016, 08:43:34 pm »

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/us/politics/hillary-clinton-campaign.html

Quote
the F.B.I. director’s letter about the emails has not yet produced a major shift in private polling, according to Republican and Democratic strategists with access to confidential data, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Mrs. Clinton’s lead over Mr. Trump appears to have contracted modestly, but not enough to threaten her advantage over all or to make the electoral math less forbidding for Mr. Trump, Republicans and Democrats said.

Republicans privy to private polling data said surveys they had seen since the news from the F.B.I. on Friday still showed Mrs. Clinton leading in North Carolina
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #536 on: October 31, 2016, 08:54:48 pm »

That's very good to hear, indeed, and gives more credence to what was already the sense: the unaffiliateds are breaking hard for HRC and that's where the poll adv is. Not close to a sure thing, but a little extra evidence in that direction.
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« Reply #537 on: October 31, 2016, 09:14:02 pm »

NC is either gone or very close to it at this point.
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« Reply #538 on: October 31, 2016, 09:26:10 pm »

If the polls coming out now and the next few days (which were taken at the peak of the Clinton-aspect of this) aren't showing a change, is it safe to say that barring any new developments there won't be any change from it?
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #539 on: October 31, 2016, 09:35:15 pm »

The Trump Tape was definitely more severe in its polling impact, with Monmouth showing Trump up Indiana 1 day, then down double digits the next, and Marquette having Trump up, then down...

It probably will take a week to understand the impact.

And the FBI story is too confusing for most people to digest, and the campaign is effectively countering back, and even has the support of hardline Republicans. Plus, tons of Trump oppo dumping tonight.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #540 on: October 31, 2016, 10:00:26 pm »

NC is either gone or very close to it at this point.
Gone for who?
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Seriously?
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« Reply #541 on: October 31, 2016, 11:16:25 pm »

The Trump Tape was definitely more severe in its polling impact, with Monmouth showing Trump up Indiana 1 day, then down double digits the next, and Marquette having Trump up, then down...

It probably will take a week to understand the impact.

And the FBI story is too confusing for most people to digest, and the campaign is effectively countering back, and even has the support of hardline Republicans. Plus, tons of Trump oppo dumping tonight.
Not when sex is involved. That seems to make it easier for the American public to pay attention to it. Pervert Anthony Weiner makes this story juicier than it would normally be.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #542 on: November 01, 2016, 01:25:13 am »

The Trump Tape was definitely more severe in its polling impact, with Monmouth showing Trump up Indiana 1 day, then down double digits the next, and Marquette having Trump up, then down...

It probably will take a week to understand the impact.

And the FBI story is too confusing for most people to digest, and the campaign is effectively countering back, and even has the support of hardline Republicans. Plus, tons of Trump oppo dumping tonight.
Not when sex is involved. That seems to make it easier for the American public to pay attention to it. Pervert Anthony Weiner makes this story juicier than it would normally be.

Pervert who?Huh

Another email story about the same old, same old, what???

It's the same deal with the Trump groppergate.... big news initially and then five other women came forward and it barely drops on the radar of the American public.

Reality, is that this story, nor the DNC hack stories, doesn't really move the needle.

60+% of Americans see Trump as basically a sexist pig, racially insensitive, and lacking the fundamental judgement, temperament, and experience to run the highest office in the Nation, particularly on foreign policy, and 60% of Americans don't see Clinton as honest and trustworthy, and at worst view her more as a typical "politician" that will say one thing to Wall Street and another to Main Street to get elected.

You can believe whatever you want to believe, but the only people really obsessed with sex are Republicans, and the vast majority of evangelicals decided to forgive Trump of his sins solely because he has an (R) after his last name on the ballot.

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IceSpear
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« Reply #543 on: November 01, 2016, 02:54:55 am »

Here's a somewhat cryptic tweet from PPP:

Quote
I don't think Hillary is going to lose, but is it scarier than a week or two ago? Sure.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #544 on: November 01, 2016, 04:30:09 am »

Here's a somewhat cryptic tweet from PPP:

Quote
I don't think Hillary is going to lose, but is it scarier than a week or two ago? Sure.

Well... I suppose it is.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #545 on: November 01, 2016, 05:59:19 am »

Here's a somewhat cryptic tweet from PPP:

Quote
I don't think Hillary is going to lose, but is it scarier than a week or two ago? Sure.
Sounds good. I interpret it as the-margin-is-inside-MOE-win and Trump trending up, i.e. Clinton +3-4 right now and Trump is doing slightly better in recent days.

Consistent with my theory, that last night attack was because of ABC'ish internals.
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« Reply #546 on: November 01, 2016, 07:37:59 am »

Here's a somewhat cryptic tweet from PPP:

Quote
I don't think Hillary is going to lose, but is it scarier than a week or two ago? Sure.

Thanks for nothing, Comey.
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« Reply #547 on: November 01, 2016, 07:54:32 am »

Here's a somewhat cryptic tweet from PPP:

Quote
I don't think Hillary is going to lose, but is it scarier than a week or two ago? Sure.

A pessimistic PPP? Uh oh...
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #548 on: November 01, 2016, 07:57:37 am »

Hmm. Yeah, they're pretty dead-on about this kind of thing. I wonder what they started seeing, since they didn't see anything at first. We'll see what they have.
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« Reply #549 on: November 01, 2016, 10:12:56 am »

@JohnJHarwood  5s6 seconds ago


top GOP pollster: "Trump recovering, not enough to dig out of hole. superior HRC data/digital/GOTV too much to overcome. GOP holds Senate."



https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793470712287748097
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