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  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 63919 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #575 on: November 01, 2016, 03:50:10 pm »

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  8m8 minutes ago
Every NC poll we've done in the last month has had Clinton up narrowly. She will probably win. If she loses it will be likely be by 1-2 pts

Niiiice.
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #576 on: November 01, 2016, 07:47:17 pm »

http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2016/11/trump-for-ny-poll-shows-a-much-closer-race-in-ny/

Trump internal has Clinton up 49-38 in New York, after doing a push question.

"Before being asked who their favored candidate was, the pollster asked voters: “All things being equal, would you be more likely to vote for a candidate for president that will continue many of President Obama’s policies for the next four years or change and take the country in a new and different direction?”
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #577 on: November 01, 2016, 07:48:34 pm »

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  8m8 minutes ago
Every NC poll we've done in the last month has had Clinton up narrowly. She will probably win. If she loses it will be likely be by 1-2 pts

Niiiice.

Trump will win NC by at least 3%, though no more than 5%.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #578 on: November 01, 2016, 07:50:16 pm »

http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2016/11/trump-for-ny-poll-shows-a-much-closer-race-in-ny/

Trump internal has Clinton up 49-38 in New York, after doing a push question.

"Before being asked who their favored candidate was, the pollster asked voters: “All things being equal, would you be more likely to vote for a candidate for president that will continue many of President Obama’s policies for the next four years or change and take the country in a new and different direction?”

What a joke.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #579 on: November 01, 2016, 07:51:26 pm »

Hillary has rarely hit the upper 50s in a NY poll, so it's not impossible Trump could hit 40% there, though unlikely.
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Milton Friedman
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« Reply #580 on: November 01, 2016, 07:53:17 pm »

Majority Leader Cantor nods his head in approval at that NY poll.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #581 on: November 01, 2016, 07:53:45 pm »

Hillary has rarely hit the upper 50s in a NY poll, so it's not impossible Trump could hit 40% there, though unlikely.

I am talking about the question.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #582 on: November 01, 2016, 08:32:46 pm »

While I do expect Trump to perform better in New York than Romney, I don't see how he hits 40%. You have to remember that Stein\Johnson\others will probably get about 5% of the vote here.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #583 on: November 02, 2016, 07:45:00 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  18m18 minutes ago
top GOP pollster: "Johnson continuing to trend down.  Clinton holding steady lead of about 5 points"


How many "top GOP pollsters" does Harwood know? Not everyone can be a top pollster.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #584 on: November 02, 2016, 07:46:48 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  18m18 minutes ago
top GOP pollster: "Johnson continuing to trend down.  Clinton holding steady lead of about 5 points"


How many "top GOP pollsters" does Harwood know? Not everyone can be a top pollster.
lol maybe he has money invested in the betting odds
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #585 on: November 02, 2016, 07:52:34 am »

More top men. Who? TOP. MEN.

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  7m7 minutes ago
top Dem pollster on Clinton edge: "could get tighter because partisanship such a driver of vote choice, but she's holding steady"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago
non-partisan pollster on Clinton lead: "data says 6 and steady"
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #586 on: November 02, 2016, 08:00:02 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"
Lol
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Brittain33
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« Reply #587 on: November 02, 2016, 08:08:28 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"
Lol

This is consistent with stability in the race over several months assuming all swings are reflecting non-response.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #588 on: November 02, 2016, 08:12:13 am »

6 sounds about right to me, give or take two points in either direction.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #589 on: November 02, 2016, 08:26:15 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"
Lol

This is consistent with stability in the race over several months assuming all swings are reflecting non-response.
Yes, I know. But this says basically nothing. It is like saying:

top Trumpista pollster on approx race in FL/NC/IA/[ any close state]: "from C-2 to T+2 IMHO".
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #590 on: November 02, 2016, 08:30:05 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"
Lol

This is consistent with stability in the race over several months assuming all swings are reflecting non-response.
Yes, I know. But this says basically nothing. It is like saying:

top Trumpista pollster on approx race in FL/NC/IA/[ any close state]: "from C-2 to T+2 IMHO".

So the reality is really Tied to 4 points? I believe it. One more oppo hit against Hillary and Trump will win. Else, she wins.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #591 on: November 02, 2016, 10:30:05 am »

gop pollster: clinton leading 2-4, trump turnout gonna b good.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793833306097852416
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #592 on: November 02, 2016, 10:41:24 am »


Excellent analysis.  Non-existent GOTV efforts almost always coincide with fantastic turnout.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #593 on: November 02, 2016, 10:43:08 am »

true but we shouldn't underestimate the RNC and the senate campaigns.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #594 on: November 02, 2016, 12:09:11 pm »

gop operative from NH claims great homecoming, fast closing gap
https://mobile.twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/793855147252285444
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #595 on: November 02, 2016, 12:11:03 pm »


But the counterpoint from  a GOP strategist is:

Quote
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #596 on: November 02, 2016, 12:11:08 pm »

NH's going to be tough. Hillary is around 46-47% there and you know white men are going to swing hard against her. There's no minority base there. Hopefully her performance among NH white women is more similar to Obama 2008 than Obama 2012, or else Trump could squeak by.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #597 on: November 02, 2016, 12:14:36 pm »

Private polling the entire cycle has been steady with a mid single digit lead nationally for Clinton. GOP internals are notoriously horrible in presidential years and I would be skeptical of any reports of states like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire being close.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #598 on: November 02, 2016, 12:17:11 pm »


Trump was in a very deep hole in NH, though.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #599 on: November 02, 2016, 12:20:36 pm »


Some internals had him down double digits a week ago.
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