Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 17, 2019, 12:49:57 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 32 Print
Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 61126 times)
darthpi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,672
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.91

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #75 on: August 19, 2016, 11:38:53 am »

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,167
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #76 on: August 19, 2016, 11:39:58 am »

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.
Logged
Gass3268
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,168
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #77 on: August 19, 2016, 11:47:28 am »

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.

Marquette had Clinton up by 5% (4 way vote) in the Milwaukee media market, outside of the city of Milwaukee. This includes the WOW counties, but also includes the Milwaukee County suburbs, Racine, Kenosha, Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, Jefferson, and Walworth counties.
Logged
darthpi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,672
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.91

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #78 on: August 19, 2016, 12:04:41 pm »

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.

Marquette had Clinton up by 5% (4 way vote) in the Milwaukee media market, outside of the city of Milwaukee. This includes the WOW counties, but also includes the Milwaukee County suburbs, Racine, Kenosha, Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, Jefferson, and Walworth counties.

Oh, okay, that's at least within the realm of comprehension. Although even that broader area was won by McCain 53-46 in 2008, so Trump is still badly under-performing there.
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,461
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #79 on: August 19, 2016, 12:32:27 pm »

I find it odd that Trump is doing so well in Iowa, but is getting demolished in Wisconsin.  Aren't the Demographics of these states similar?
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,505
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.16, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #80 on: August 19, 2016, 12:41:01 pm »

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.

Marquette had Clinton up by 5% (4 way vote) in the Milwaukee media market, outside of the city of Milwaukee. This includes the WOW counties, but also includes the Milwaukee County suburbs, Racine, Kenosha, Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, Jefferson, and Walworth counties.

Oh, okay, that's at least within the realm of comprehension. Although even that broader area was won by McCain 53-46 in 2008, so Trump is still badly under-performing there.

What are the WOW counties? Pardon the ignorance.
Logged
Nhoj
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,159
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #81 on: August 19, 2016, 12:43:59 pm »

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.

Marquette had Clinton up by 5% (4 way vote) in the Milwaukee media market, outside of the city of Milwaukee. This includes the WOW counties, but also includes the Milwaukee County suburbs, Racine, Kenosha, Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, Jefferson, and Walworth counties.

Oh, okay, that's at least within the realm of comprehension. Although even that broader area was won by McCain 53-46 in 2008, so Trump is still badly under-performing there.

What are the WOW counties? Pardon the ignorance.
Waukesha-Ozaukee-Washington.
Logged
Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,618
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #82 on: August 19, 2016, 12:48:16 pm »

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.

Marquette had Clinton up by 5% (4 way vote) in the Milwaukee media market, outside of the city of Milwaukee. This includes the WOW counties, but also includes the Milwaukee County suburbs, Racine, Kenosha, Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, Jefferson, and Walworth counties.

Oh, okay, that's at least within the realm of comprehension. Although even that broader area was won by McCain 53-46 in 2008, so Trump is still badly under-performing there.

What are the WOW counties? Pardon the ignorance.
Pardon the Circle of ignorance Tongue
Logged
Fargobison
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,493



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #83 on: August 23, 2016, 08:34:31 pm »

Quote
Meg KinnardVerified account
‏@MegKinnardAP
More: Feldman Group poll commissioned by @SCDP has Clinton/Trump tied at 39% w/third-parties included. Take them out & Trump leads 45%-43%.

https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/768258422131208192
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,167
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #84 on: August 23, 2016, 08:40:14 pm »

Quote
Meg KinnardVerified account
‏@MegKinnardAP
More: Feldman Group poll commissioned by @SCDP has Clinton/Trump tied at 39% w/third-parties included. Take them out & Trump leads 45%-43%.

https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/768258422131208192

Doesn't sound too far off actually.
Logged
psychprofessor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,076


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #85 on: August 23, 2016, 08:44:02 pm »

Quote
Meg KinnardVerified account
‏@MegKinnardAP
More: Feldman Group poll commissioned by @SCDP has Clinton/Trump tied at 39% w/third-parties included. Take them out & Trump leads 45%-43%.

https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/768258422131208192

Doesn't sound too far off actually.

Not if Virginia is double digits and NC is mid to high single digits. If that's the case Georgia is probably tied or slightly Clinton.
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,583
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #86 on: August 23, 2016, 09:04:27 pm »

Quote
Meg KinnardVerified account
‏@MegKinnardAP
More: Feldman Group poll commissioned by @SCDP has Clinton/Trump tied at 39% w/third-parties included. Take them out & Trump leads 45%-43%.

https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/768258422131208192

Doesn't sound too far off actually.

Not if Virginia is double digits and NC is mid to high single digits. If that's the case Georgia is probably tied or slightly Clinton.

I think Clinton trails by 5 in SC. Remember when a group puts out an internal it usually overstates their position by 5 points. What it does show is that NC is Clinton's and GA is a tossup
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,495
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #87 on: August 23, 2016, 09:17:17 pm »

Not totally unreasonable considering the state was only (54-49 McCain in '08), so if one looks at the national polling averages, combined with some of the neighboring state polls, it makes sense that this state could be close within MOE, even adjusting for the partisan internal organization that conducted the poll.

Additionally is a highly educated state, where even in the cradle of the Confederacy, we could expect to see a significant defection among "Angry Country Southern Club Ladies", and educated White voters in general to have Yuuuge issues with the current Republican nominee.

Also, there are other reports regarding collapse of Trump support within the suburbs/exurbs of Charlotte, that would include Chester, Chesterfield, Lancaster, and York Counties, most of which are heavily Republican, at a time where the Trump campaign has not yet aired a single ad in NC.

As, I discussed elsewhere with fellow forumites, there is also a significant collapse in Coastal SC counties, from "country club" Republicans from Horry to Beaufort, and even rock solid Republican suburb of Columbia (Lexington County).

It is just an internal poll but..... feel free to discuss, particularly those that live in the state/region and more familiar with some of the demographics.

 
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,495
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #88 on: August 23, 2016, 09:40:22 pm »

I respectfully suggest to the mods that these two SC threads/post be merged....

Normally internals belong to this thread, but SC is now a hot topic so whatever makes sense.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,801
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #89 on: August 26, 2016, 09:23:44 pm »

A poll conductd by Rick Scott's Super PAC shows Clinton and Trump tied in Ohio, 45-45.

Quote
Scott is the head of the Rebuilding America Now PAC, which—in conjunction with pollsters from On Message, Inc.—conducted a battleground survey in the state of Ohio. The survey of 600 likely voters from August 13 to August 17, with a margin of error of 4 percent, shows Trump tied with Clinton at 45 percent apiece with 10 percent undecided in a two-way race. In the four-way race with Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein included, Trump and Clinton are still tied at 42 percent, while Johnson gets 8 percent and Stein just 2 percent—with 6 percent undecided.

Link.
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,583
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #90 on: August 26, 2016, 09:26:02 pm »

A poll conductd by Rick Scott's Super PAC shows Clinton and Trump tied in Ohio, 45-45.

Quote
Scott is the head of the Rebuilding America Now PAC, which—in conjunction with pollsters from On Message, Inc.—conducted a battleground survey in the state of Ohio. The survey of 600 likely voters from August 13 to August 17, with a margin of error of 4 percent, shows Trump tied with Clinton at 45 percent apiece with 10 percent undecided in a two-way race. In the four-way race with Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein included, Trump and Clinton are still tied at 42 percent, while Johnson gets 8 percent and Stein just 2 percent—with 6 percent undecided.

Link.

Clinton +4 or 5 in OH then
Logged
HillOfANight
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,466
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #91 on: August 29, 2016, 09:37:11 am »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/john-mccain-is-in-the-fight-of-his-life-in-the-age-of-donald-trump/2016/08/29/1e3168ac-6b11-11e6-99bf-f0cf3a6449a6_story.html

according to McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff, “Trump and Clinton are essentially running even in Arizona.”
Logged
heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,165
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #92 on: August 29, 2016, 09:42:25 am »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/john-mccain-is-in-the-fight-of-his-life-in-the-age-of-donald-trump/2016/08/29/1e3168ac-6b11-11e6-99bf-f0cf3a6449a6_story.html

according to McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff, “Trump and Clinton are essentially running even in Arizona.”

Why does it seem like GOP internals are more D-friendly that public polls? In NC we heard Trump was down double digits, but recent polls show it's still pretty close.

If I recall in 2014 GOP internals were actually pretty accurate.
Logged
Seriously?
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,034
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #93 on: August 29, 2016, 09:44:37 am »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/john-mccain-is-in-the-fight-of-his-life-in-the-age-of-donald-trump/2016/08/29/1e3168ac-6b11-11e6-99bf-f0cf3a6449a6_story.html

according to McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff, “Trump and Clinton are essentially running even in Arizona.”
McCain's pollster, Trump probably leads Smiley
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,583
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #94 on: August 29, 2016, 10:00:04 am »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/john-mccain-is-in-the-fight-of-his-life-in-the-age-of-donald-trump/2016/08/29/1e3168ac-6b11-11e6-99bf-f0cf3a6449a6_story.html

according to McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff, “Trump and Clinton are essentially running even in Arizona.”

McInturff also teams up with Peter Hart, a Dem pollster, for the NBC/WSJ poll so he is legit
Logged
HillOfANight
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,466
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #95 on: August 29, 2016, 03:20:54 pm »

https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/770354384731602944
https://www.scribd.com/document/322485067/CA-49-Strategies-360-for-Doug-Applegate-Aug-2016

Trump's incredibly weak in affluent, well-educated areas. New poll has Clinton +5 in CA-49 (Issa). 2012: Romney +6.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,657
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #96 on: August 29, 2016, 03:22:49 pm »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/john-mccain-is-in-the-fight-of-his-life-in-the-age-of-donald-trump/2016/08/29/1e3168ac-6b11-11e6-99bf-f0cf3a6449a6_story.html

according to McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff, “Trump and Clinton are essentially running even in Arizona.”

Why does it seem like GOP internals are more D-friendly that public polls? In NC we heard Trump was down double digits, but recent polls show it's still pretty close.

If I recall in 2014 GOP internals were actually pretty accurate.

Both the D & R internals are showing a bigger lead for Clinton than a lot of the polls; and what we are seeing in the ground games and how the campaigns are responding is that feels like the case.  I think perhaps the public polls are starting to show a "herding" effect; with so many daily trackers and the like showing a close race, the other pollsters are showing the same herding problem we've seen in the past.
You don't really imply that internall poll are better, don't you?
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,618
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #97 on: August 29, 2016, 04:30:04 pm »

Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,657
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #98 on: August 29, 2016, 04:54:45 pm »

Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).
Evidence? Smiley
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,583
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #99 on: August 29, 2016, 05:05:00 pm »

Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).
Evidence? Smiley

Some internal polls from the parties have to be pretty accurate because the parties' entire reason for existence is to win
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 32 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC