Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 10, 2019, 05:19:23 am
News: 2020 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Internal poll megathread
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 32 Print
Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 64102 times)
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,852


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 18, 2016, 12:17:38 am »
« edited: July 18, 2016, 12:33:20 am by Likely Voter »

Harper Polling (Internal for Senate Campaign of Republican Dan Carter)
Clinton 43%
Trump 43%

July 5-6; 600 RV; Unknown MOE

It's a Republican internal, so definitely salt to taste and don't put it in the database.  I don't believe it, but Quinnipiac had CT at a relatively close (for CT) 45-38 Clinton back in June.

Do we have a megathread for publicly released internals somewhere?  We probably should.  They may be the only polls we get for some of the less polled states.
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,455
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.16, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2016, 12:22:30 am »

I think Trump should spend a great deal of money here to try to flip it.
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,933
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2016, 12:23:56 am »

Yeah, 43% is about what Trump will get on election day in CT.
Logged
Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,727
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 18, 2016, 12:24:53 am »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

And I have an unpublished poll showing Hillary winning Alabama.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,692
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 18, 2016, 12:31:23 am »

Sure, and Clinton is only down 5 in KY.
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,639
United States


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 18, 2016, 12:33:20 am »

Pls
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,350


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 18, 2016, 12:34:50 am »

There was an internal megathread in the primary poll sub but I don't see one for general, so this will be it.

Internals should not be put into the db but can be shared here.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,972
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2016, 01:47:02 am »

CT tied ?

Extremely unlikely ...
Logged
HillOfANight
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2016, 08:24:18 pm »
« Edited: July 18, 2016, 08:26:10 pm by HillOfANight »

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/2016/07/14/internal-polling-shows-gingrich-could-deliver-key-swing-states/

Southern Political Report, trying to hype up their Southern son Gingrich... before Pence was picked.

Trump/Pence lose Florida by 1
Trump/Pence win GA by 1 vs Clinton
Trump/Pence LOSE GA by 1 vs Clinton/Warren
Trump/Pence lose North Carolina
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,822
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 18, 2016, 08:30:53 pm »

DSCC internal had Trump +5  in Indiana.
Logged
HillOfANight
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 18, 2016, 08:35:34 pm »

DSCC internal had Trump +5  in Indiana.

That was among the undecided voters. They never published the numbers for all voters (likely not favorable for her).
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,350


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 18, 2016, 09:18:20 pm »

Please link to sources or say where you saw it on TV
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,933
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 22, 2016, 09:05:25 pm »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.


http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20160722/BLOGS02/160729927/poll-gives-kirk-edge-over-duckworth-but-clinton-clobbering-trump
Logged
Classic Conservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,645
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 22, 2016, 09:10:36 pm »

The numbers for the presidential race seem plausible.
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,574
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 22, 2016, 09:36:38 pm »

Since it's a repub internal add 5 points to the dems
Logged
StatesPoll
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 441
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 22, 2016, 10:05:39 pm »



Specifically, 46.4 percent of likely voters surveyed by phone said they favor Clinton, 32.5 percent are for Trump, 5.2 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2.6 percent for the Green Party's Jill Stein. Just over 13 percent were undecided.

Illinois:  Hillary 46.4% TRUMP 32.5% Johnson 5.2% Stein 2.6%
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20160722/BLOGS02/160729927/poll-gives-kirk-edge-over-duckworth-but-clinton-clobbering-trump

of course HRC will win Illinois. But only +13.9% margins in deep blue state. Not very good sign for HRC Wink


Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 22, 2016, 10:08:17 pm »

Go. Away.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,112


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 25, 2016, 07:26:49 am »

Georgia D-Internal poll from Lake Research Partners has Clinton +1 (Clinton 41, Trump 40, Undecided 16) with a sample of 600 LV.  No three-way numbers are listed (Stein isn't on the ballot here).  No crosstabs.

Link: https://cmgajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/lrpmemo-georgiademocraticparty-f-072016.pdf

Favorability:

Hillary Clinton 42/53  (-11)
Donald Trump 39/55  (-16)
Barack Obama 51/45 (+6)
Michelle Obama 61/27 (+34)
Bill Clinton 53/39 (+14)
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 25, 2016, 08:07:40 am »

Georgia D-Internal poll from Lake Research Partners has Clinton +1 (Clinton 41, Trump 40, Undecided 16) with a sample of 600 LV.  No three-way numbers are listed (Stein isn't on the ballot here).  No crosstabs.

Link: https://cmgajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/lrpmemo-georgiademocraticparty-f-072016.pdf

Favorability:

Hillary Clinton 42/53  (-11)
Donald Trump 39/55  (-16)
Barack Obama 51/45 (+6)
Michelle Obama 61/27 (+34)
Bill Clinton 53/39 (+14)

From:
MAR. 31-APR. 3, Lake Research Partners, 400 LV   
Clinton 50%
Trump 37%
Logged
HillOfANight
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: July 25, 2016, 01:30:00 pm »

Georgia D-Internal poll from Lake Research Partners has Clinton +1 (Clinton 41, Trump 40, Undecided 16) with a sample of 600 LV.  No three-way numbers are listed (Stein isn't on the ballot here).  No crosstabs.

Link: https://cmgajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/lrpmemo-georgiademocraticparty-f-072016.pdf

Favorability:

Hillary Clinton 42/53  (-11)
Donald Trump 39/55  (-16)
Barack Obama 51/45 (+6)
Michelle Obama 61/27 (+34)
Bill Clinton 53/39 (+14)

I asked them the composition/preference and this is the most info they gave me. Seems reasonable considering past years and demographic growth.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/LoriGearyWSB/status/757588822469271557

WSB/LandMark should release something by 6PM for Georgia to confirm too.
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,574
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 03, 2016, 09:48:08 pm »
« Edited: August 03, 2016, 09:50:01 pm by dspNY »

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,639
United States


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 03, 2016, 09:49:59 pm »

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

lol, that's insane. IA-3 or IA-1?
Logged
izixs
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,031
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.31, S: -6.51

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 03, 2016, 10:08:10 pm »

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

lol, that's insane. IA-3 or IA-1?

This is Chuck Todd. This could mean 2 or 4.
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,639
United States


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 03, 2016, 10:08:48 pm »

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

lol, that's insane. IA-3 or IA-1?

This is Chuck Todd. This could mean 2 or 4.

Ah... lol. If Hillary would be up 13 in IA-4, she would be landsliding beyond belief.
Logged
/
darthebearnc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,376
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 04, 2016, 05:40:22 am »

Pretty sure they're talking about IA-5, to be honest.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 32 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC