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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 61168 times)
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #25 on: August 04, 2016, 05:40:22 am »

Pretty sure they're talking about IA-5, to be honest.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #26 on: August 05, 2016, 06:39:24 am »

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)

Gonna piggyback off this

Mr. Todd said this morning on MSNBC that the polls next week look to be getting worse for Trump. He also mentioned an upcoming poll showing Clinton leading in a solid R state, recalling the weird polls from Utah
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LLR
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« Reply #27 on: August 05, 2016, 06:58:41 am »

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)

Gonna piggyback off this

Mr. Todd said this morning on MSNBC that the polls next week look to be getting worse for Trump. He also mentioned an upcoming poll showing Clinton leading in a solid R state, recalling the weird polls from Utah

South Carolina??? I can barely contain my excitement
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indietraveler
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« Reply #28 on: August 05, 2016, 05:50:40 pm »

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)

It's IA-2 that is typically democratic and IA-4 that's reliably republican. IA-1 is lean D so maybe he's talking about this district. A republican rep got elected in 2014 that had been held by a democrat, but it's likely to flip back this year. IA-3 is swing, maybe a tiny tilt R.

Either way if Clinton is truly up 13, whether it's IA-1 or 3, then she has the state.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #29 on: August 05, 2016, 07:20:45 pm »

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)

Gonna piggyback off this

Mr. Todd said this morning on MSNBC that the polls next week look to be getting worse for Trump. He also mentioned an upcoming poll showing Clinton leading in a solid R state, recalling the weird polls from Utah
Any link?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #30 on: August 05, 2016, 07:23:49 pm »

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)

Gonna piggyback off this

Mr. Todd said this morning on MSNBC that the polls next week look to be getting worse for Trump. He also mentioned an upcoming poll showing Clinton leading in a solid R state, recalling the weird polls from Utah
Any link?

Was he referring to that Georgia poll?
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #31 on: August 05, 2016, 07:33:15 pm »

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)

Gonna piggyback off this

Mr. Todd said this morning on MSNBC that the polls next week look to be getting worse for Trump. He also mentioned an upcoming poll showing Clinton leading in a solid R state, recalling the weird polls from Utah
Any link?

Was he referring to that Georgia poll?
That seems most likely. Not sure what other polls he would have had that far ahead of time by this point.
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Badger
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« Reply #32 on: August 06, 2016, 11:30:18 pm »

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)

Gonna piggyback off this

Mr. Todd said this morning on MSNBC that the polls next week look to be getting worse for Trump. He also mentioned an upcoming poll showing Clinton leading in a solid R state, recalling the weird polls from Utah
Any link?

Was he referring to that Georgia poll?

That's my bet.
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dspNY
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« Reply #33 on: August 10, 2016, 11:00:16 am »

The DCCC says that Clinton is beating Trump by 14 points in FL-7 (northeast of Orlando) and 24 points in FL-26 (most of Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties)

https://twitter.com/KimberlyRailey/status/763376173296525312

That would indicate a Clinton lead of at least 5 points statewide
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fldemfunds
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« Reply #34 on: August 10, 2016, 10:04:39 pm »

The DCCC says that Clinton is beating Trump by 14 points in FL-7 (northeast of Orlando) and 24 points in FL-26 (most of Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties)

https://twitter.com/KimberlyRailey/status/763376173296525312

That would indicate a Clinton lead of at least 5 points statewide

We managed to snag a really strong candidate in FL 7 too. If she's winning fl 7 by 14 points (it is a 50-50 seat after redistricting), she's probably up in Florida by 8 or 9.
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Devils30
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« Reply #35 on: August 10, 2016, 10:12:08 pm »

FL-7 and 26 will probably have greater Democratic trends than other districts in the state. I expect most of northern Florida to move very little in either direction, Miami to completely collapse for Trump and for Trump to somewhat underperform in places like Collier, Sarasota. He'll do fine in Volusia.
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fldemfunds
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« Reply #36 on: August 11, 2016, 06:35:06 am »

FL-7 and 26 will probably have greater Democratic trends than other districts in the state. I expect most of northern Florida to move very little in either direction, Miami to completely collapse for Trump and for Trump to somewhat underperform in places like Collier, Sarasota. He'll do fine in Volusia.

I don't disagree with any of this. Fl 7 is heavy college educated Republicans. I've been telling my Republican friends that the difference between a Rubio win and loss is hillarys margin. If she wins by 7-8 or more, he's probably toast.
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #37 on: August 11, 2016, 12:50:00 pm »

Clinton +6 in KS-03
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #38 on: August 11, 2016, 12:50:47 pm »

Kevin Yoder (R) internal poll of KS-03 shows Yoder +17 and Clinton +6 per Politico's Scott Bland (https://twitter.com/PoliticoScott/status/763792785057148928).  Romney won the district by 10.
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Arch
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« Reply #39 on: August 11, 2016, 12:51:07 pm »

Clinton +6 in KS-03

lol, are KS, SC, AZ and GA flipping D this year, while IA flips R? That would be quite interesting.
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Castro
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« Reply #40 on: August 11, 2016, 01:04:34 pm »

Clinton +6 in KS-03

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  15m15 minutes ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted Scott Bland
Clinton probably comfortable ahead in NE-2 if this is right
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Holmes
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« Reply #41 on: August 11, 2016, 01:05:12 pm »

It's in line with a 5% or so statewide victory for Trump. KS-01 will drag him over the finish line.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #42 on: August 11, 2016, 01:08:32 pm »

Clinton +6 in KS-03

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  15m15 minutes ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted Scott Bland
Clinton probably comfortable ahead in NE-2 if this is right
375-163.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #43 on: August 11, 2016, 01:09:58 pm »

Clinton +6 in KS-03

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  15m15 minutes ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted Scott Bland
Clinton probably comfortable ahead in NE-2 if this is right
375-163.

Probably even competitivish in NE-1.
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dspNY
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« Reply #44 on: August 11, 2016, 01:46:05 pm »

Clinton +6 in KS-03

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  15m15 minutes ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted Scott Bland
Clinton probably comfortable ahead in NE-2 if this is right
375-163.

Probably even competitivish in NE-1.

That's the GOP incumbent congressman's internal showing Clinton up 6 in his district. Confirms that Trump is only leading by single digits in KS
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Holmes
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« Reply #45 on: August 11, 2016, 01:51:26 pm »

Clinton +6 in KS-03

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  15m15 minutes ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted Scott Bland
Clinton probably comfortable ahead in NE-2 if this is right
375-163.

Probably even competitivish in NE-1.

Mmm. I dunno. KS-03 is more similar to NE-02 than NE-01. Lincoln is drowned out by surrounding suburbs and rural areas in Nebraska's first that I don't think Clinton really has a chance.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #46 on: August 13, 2016, 02:24:46 pm »

A Gregg internal shows Trump and Clinton tied at 44% in Indiana.

https://twitter.com/hwypol/status/764497782677790720
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Castro
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« Reply #47 on: August 13, 2016, 02:25:48 pm »

A Gregg internal shows Trump and Clinton tied at 44% in Indiana.

https://twitter.com/hwypol/status/764497782677790720

Ugh you literally beat me by 1 second.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #48 on: August 13, 2016, 02:30:23 pm »

A Gregg internal shows Trump and Clinton tied at 44% in Indiana.

https://twitter.com/hwypol/status/764497782677790720
Eh that's a load of junk.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #49 on: August 13, 2016, 02:34:32 pm »

No, Trump will win Indiana by 30+ points because he picked beloved Hoosier demigod Mike Pence as his running mate. Even Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia would flip before Indiana voted against Mike Pence. Atlas told me so!
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