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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 64056 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #75 on: August 19, 2016, 11:47:28 am »

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.

Marquette had Clinton up by 5% (4 way vote) in the Milwaukee media market, outside of the city of Milwaukee. This includes the WOW counties, but also includes the Milwaukee County suburbs, Racine, Kenosha, Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, Jefferson, and Walworth counties.
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darthpi
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« Reply #76 on: August 19, 2016, 12:04:41 pm »

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.

Marquette had Clinton up by 5% (4 way vote) in the Milwaukee media market, outside of the city of Milwaukee. This includes the WOW counties, but also includes the Milwaukee County suburbs, Racine, Kenosha, Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, Jefferson, and Walworth counties.

Oh, okay, that's at least within the realm of comprehension. Although even that broader area was won by McCain 53-46 in 2008, so Trump is still badly under-performing there.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #77 on: August 19, 2016, 12:32:27 pm »

I find it odd that Trump is doing so well in Iowa, but is getting demolished in Wisconsin.  Aren't the Demographics of these states similar?
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Crumpets
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« Reply #78 on: August 19, 2016, 12:41:01 pm »

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.

Marquette had Clinton up by 5% (4 way vote) in the Milwaukee media market, outside of the city of Milwaukee. This includes the WOW counties, but also includes the Milwaukee County suburbs, Racine, Kenosha, Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, Jefferson, and Walworth counties.

Oh, okay, that's at least within the realm of comprehension. Although even that broader area was won by McCain 53-46 in 2008, so Trump is still badly under-performing there.

What are the WOW counties? Pardon the ignorance.
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Nhoj
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« Reply #79 on: August 19, 2016, 12:43:59 pm »

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.

Marquette had Clinton up by 5% (4 way vote) in the Milwaukee media market, outside of the city of Milwaukee. This includes the WOW counties, but also includes the Milwaukee County suburbs, Racine, Kenosha, Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, Jefferson, and Walworth counties.

Oh, okay, that's at least within the realm of comprehension. Although even that broader area was won by McCain 53-46 in 2008, so Trump is still badly under-performing there.

What are the WOW counties? Pardon the ignorance.
Waukesha-Ozaukee-Washington.
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Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #80 on: August 19, 2016, 12:48:16 pm »

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.

Marquette had Clinton up by 5% (4 way vote) in the Milwaukee media market, outside of the city of Milwaukee. This includes the WOW counties, but also includes the Milwaukee County suburbs, Racine, Kenosha, Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, Jefferson, and Walworth counties.

Oh, okay, that's at least within the realm of comprehension. Although even that broader area was won by McCain 53-46 in 2008, so Trump is still badly under-performing there.

What are the WOW counties? Pardon the ignorance.
Pardon the Circle of ignorance Tongue
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Fargobison
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« Reply #81 on: August 23, 2016, 08:34:31 pm »

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https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/768258422131208192
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Arch
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« Reply #82 on: August 23, 2016, 08:40:14 pm »


Doesn't sound too far off actually.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #83 on: August 23, 2016, 08:44:02 pm »


Not if Virginia is double digits and NC is mid to high single digits. If that's the case Georgia is probably tied or slightly Clinton.
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dspNY
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« Reply #84 on: August 23, 2016, 09:04:27 pm »


Not if Virginia is double digits and NC is mid to high single digits. If that's the case Georgia is probably tied or slightly Clinton.

I think Clinton trails by 5 in SC. Remember when a group puts out an internal it usually overstates their position by 5 points. What it does show is that NC is Clinton's and GA is a tossup
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #85 on: August 23, 2016, 09:17:17 pm »

Not totally unreasonable considering the state was only (54-49 McCain in '08), so if one looks at the national polling averages, combined with some of the neighboring state polls, it makes sense that this state could be close within MOE, even adjusting for the partisan internal organization that conducted the poll.

Additionally is a highly educated state, where even in the cradle of the Confederacy, we could expect to see a significant defection among "Angry Country Southern Club Ladies", and educated White voters in general to have Yuuuge issues with the current Republican nominee.

Also, there are other reports regarding collapse of Trump support within the suburbs/exurbs of Charlotte, that would include Chester, Chesterfield, Lancaster, and York Counties, most of which are heavily Republican, at a time where the Trump campaign has not yet aired a single ad in NC.

As, I discussed elsewhere with fellow forumites, there is also a significant collapse in Coastal SC counties, from "country club" Republicans from Horry to Beaufort, and even rock solid Republican suburb of Columbia (Lexington County).

It is just an internal poll but..... feel free to discuss, particularly those that live in the state/region and more familiar with some of the demographics.

 
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #86 on: August 23, 2016, 09:40:22 pm »

I respectfully suggest to the mods that these two SC threads/post be merged....

Normally internals belong to this thread, but SC is now a hot topic so whatever makes sense.
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dspNY
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« Reply #87 on: August 26, 2016, 09:26:02 pm »

A poll conductd by Rick Scott's Super PAC shows Clinton and Trump tied in Ohio, 45-45.

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Link.

Clinton +4 or 5 in OH then
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #88 on: August 29, 2016, 09:37:11 am »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/john-mccain-is-in-the-fight-of-his-life-in-the-age-of-donald-trump/2016/08/29/1e3168ac-6b11-11e6-99bf-f0cf3a6449a6_story.html

according to McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff, “Trump and Clinton are essentially running even in Arizona.”
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heatcharger
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« Reply #89 on: August 29, 2016, 09:42:25 am »


Why does it seem like GOP internals are more D-friendly that public polls? In NC we heard Trump was down double digits, but recent polls show it's still pretty close.

If I recall in 2014 GOP internals were actually pretty accurate.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #90 on: August 29, 2016, 09:44:37 am »

McCain's pollster, Trump probably leads Smiley
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dspNY
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« Reply #91 on: August 29, 2016, 10:00:04 am »


McInturff also teams up with Peter Hart, a Dem pollster, for the NBC/WSJ poll so he is legit
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #92 on: August 29, 2016, 03:20:54 pm »

https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/770354384731602944
https://www.scribd.com/document/322485067/CA-49-Strategies-360-for-Doug-Applegate-Aug-2016

Trump's incredibly weak in affluent, well-educated areas. New poll has Clinton +5 in CA-49 (Issa). 2012: Romney +6.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #93 on: August 29, 2016, 03:22:49 pm »


Why does it seem like GOP internals are more D-friendly that public polls? In NC we heard Trump was down double digits, but recent polls show it's still pretty close.

If I recall in 2014 GOP internals were actually pretty accurate.

Both the D & R internals are showing a bigger lead for Clinton than a lot of the polls; and what we are seeing in the ground games and how the campaigns are responding is that feels like the case.  I think perhaps the public polls are starting to show a "herding" effect; with so many daily trackers and the like showing a close race, the other pollsters are showing the same herding problem we've seen in the past.
You don't really imply that internall poll are better, don't you?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #94 on: August 29, 2016, 04:30:04 pm »

Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #95 on: August 29, 2016, 04:54:45 pm »

Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).
Evidence? Smiley
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dspNY
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« Reply #96 on: August 29, 2016, 05:05:00 pm »

Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).
Evidence? Smiley

Some internal polls from the parties have to be pretty accurate because the parties' entire reason for existence is to win
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #97 on: August 29, 2016, 05:42:02 pm »

Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).
Evidence? Smiley

Some internal polls from the parties have to be pretty accurate because the parties' entire reason for existence is to win
Can't see connection, actually. And, of course, it is not an evidence. If your internal polls is not showing you winning, you don't talk about them, because it will hurt you.

What is entire reason of most pollster firms?
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #98 on: August 29, 2016, 06:41:36 pm »

GOP poll for MN-03 also had Presidential numbers.

Clinton 39%
Trump 30%
Johnson 11%
Stein 4%

(Obama won MN-03 in 2012 by less than 1%)

https://twitter.com/RachelSB/status/770401070266724352
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Arch
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« Reply #99 on: August 29, 2016, 06:42:18 pm »

GOP poll for MN-03 also had Presidential numbers.

Clinton 39%
Trump 30%
Johnson 11%
Stein 4%

(Obama won MN-03 in 2012 by less than 1%)

https://twitter.com/RachelSB/status/770401070266724352

LOL. Wow, that's horrible. He's gonna lose MN badly.
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