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  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 64098 times)
Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #100 on: August 29, 2016, 06:58:31 pm »

Another MN congressional poll that included Presidential numbers (couple days old).

MN-02 (Dem internal)

Clinton 42%
Trump 35%
Johnson 13%
Stein 5%

Obama won MN-02 by 0.06%


http://www.twincities.com/2016/08/24/whos-winning-in-the-2nd-district-candidates-polls-disagree/

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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #101 on: August 29, 2016, 07:10:09 pm »

Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).
Evidence? Smiley

Some internal polls from the parties have to be pretty accurate because the parties' entire reason for existence is to win
Can't see connection, actually. And, of course, it is not an evidence. If your internal polls is not showing you winning, you don't talk about them, because it will hurt you.

What is entire reason of most pollster firms?

There a numerous reasons to get internals out...
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #102 on: August 29, 2016, 07:12:47 pm »

Another MN congressional poll that included Presidential numbers (couple days old).

MN-02 (Dem internal)

Clinton 42%
Trump 35%
Johnson 13%
Stein 5%

Obama won MN-02 by 0.06%


http://www.twincities.com/2016/08/24/whos-winning-in-the-2nd-district-candidates-polls-disagree/



So Clinton's probably up 2-4 in this one?

Probably. If Trump is trailing in MN-02, MN-03 he is probably down double digits statewide.
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OwlRhetoric
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« Reply #103 on: August 29, 2016, 07:47:17 pm »
« Edited: August 29, 2016, 07:49:10 pm by OwlRhetoric »

Those MN-02 numbers look reasonable to me. Hillary likely has an even larger lead statewide, but if third party numbers keep holding up here they are going to prevent a blowout very much above 10%. She'll still win MN easily unless something crazy happens.

This is definitely a state where Johnson is pulling more support from her than Trump, and Stein will probably get above 1% too.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #104 on: August 31, 2016, 07:44:55 pm »

Publicly released internals are usually junk meant to set a narrative. The private ones are meant to be good, otherwise they wouldn't be hiring them.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #105 on: August 31, 2016, 07:52:35 pm »

Publicly released internals are usually junk meant to set a narrative. The private ones are meant to be good, otherwise they wouldn't be hiring them.
What's happening? Shocked I entirely agree with you. It just doesn't feel right Undecided
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Ebsy
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« Reply #106 on: September 05, 2016, 09:19:15 pm »

Internal poll for EDF Action and LCV Victory Fund.

Clinton: 47(+2 from July)
Trump: 35(-3 from July)

https://www.scribd.com/document/322753969/WI-Sen-Pres-GSG-for-LCV-Sept-2016
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KingSweden
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« Reply #107 on: September 05, 2016, 09:23:16 pm »

Seems a bit high
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DrScholl
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« Reply #108 on: September 05, 2016, 09:24:16 pm »

As expected, this race will not even be remotely close.
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Arch
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« Reply #109 on: September 05, 2016, 09:24:59 pm »

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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #110 on: September 05, 2016, 09:32:05 pm »

Its been decades since a Republican has won this state and it certainly won't be Trump....
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Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« Reply #111 on: September 05, 2016, 09:39:35 pm »

But but but!!!!! Trump was improving in the rust belt states!!!!!
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #112 on: September 05, 2016, 09:39:48 pm »

I think the margin is too high, but fantasies about WI being a Trump/tipping point state are bonkers.
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Xing
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« Reply #113 on: September 05, 2016, 09:42:27 pm »

A bit inflated, but yeah, Trump won't win Wisconsin.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #114 on: September 05, 2016, 09:56:52 pm »

Internal ----> Trash

That being said, if Trump wins WI, he has already won the election.
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Deblano
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« Reply #115 on: September 05, 2016, 10:09:39 pm »

But but but!!!!! Trump was improving in the rust belt states!!!!!

muh rust belt brexit
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #116 on: September 05, 2016, 10:51:37 pm »

Accept this one, and ignore the Wisconsin gold standard which shows Clinton only up by 3, yeah ok. *eyeroll*

Maybe a bit of a strawman I admit, but if I had to guess the reality is somewhere between this and the Marquette poll. Clinton up 7 or 8 seems reasonable considering her national margin.
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dspNY
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« Reply #117 on: September 05, 2016, 11:02:27 pm »

This is an internal, and my rule for taking 5 points off the side releasing the internal holds true for Democrats too. Clinton +7 in WI makes a lot of sense
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Seriously?
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« Reply #118 on: September 06, 2016, 01:19:30 am »

Of course it is, this thing is basically a Democrat push poll for a left-leaning group.

I think I'd take Marquette over "Global Strategy Group" any day of the week.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #119 on: September 06, 2016, 01:22:29 am »

We have seen this sort of margin before in Wisconsin. Wisconsin usually closes hard for Democrats... Wisconsin will be at the most on the fringe of contention at any point from now until November. 
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #120 on: September 06, 2016, 03:44:19 am »

Emerson is junk, but this is a great poll from a great pollster. amIrighigt?
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #121 on: September 06, 2016, 10:07:24 am »

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/07/us/politics/donald-trump-ohio-john-kasich.html?ref=politics&_r=0

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Errr... Obama won Franklin 60-38 in 2012.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #122 on: September 06, 2016, 10:16:10 am »

Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #123 on: September 06, 2016, 10:25:04 am »

Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.
I'd rather believe internalls than public ones. 2012!!!111
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Seriously?
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« Reply #124 on: September 06, 2016, 11:28:25 am »

Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).
Evidence? Smiley

Some internal polls from the parties have to be pretty accurate because the parties' entire reason for existence is to win
Can't see connection, actually. And, of course, it is not an evidence. If your internal polls is not showing you winning, you don't talk about them, because it will hurt you.

What is entire reason of most pollster firms?

There a numerous reasons to get internals out...
The problem with internals is that you don't know which internal you are getting. The one based on the assumption of max turnout of the party that sanctioned the internal or the real number.

It's the probing of the "what if" factor that is generally the problem.

We have no idea of what the baseline assumptions are.
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