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  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 64167 times)
Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #175 on: October 03, 2016, 01:52:54 am »


Takers for what?  I doubt Maine pollsters poll in French.  As you pointed out, French-speaking Mainers are less than 10% of the population.  And most of them probably speak English, too, anyway, like many Québécois.

I honestly didn't know, that's why I was asking. 
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #176 on: October 03, 2016, 01:07:41 pm »

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/783004625263820801

Clinton +11 in Colorado from Keating Research.

Clinton 44
Trump 33
Johnson 11
Stein 3
Other 4
Undecided 6

Among white voters, she's ahead 42-37.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #177 on: October 04, 2016, 01:34:33 pm »

https://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/NV-CD-03-10.3.16.pdf

According to The Tarrance Group, in Nevada's 3rd congressional district, Donald Trump has a three point advantage (43%-40%) over Hillary Clinton in the Presidential race and Trump has a three point advantage (38%-35%) among voters making a definite choice.

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Ebsy
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« Reply #178 on: October 04, 2016, 01:43:55 pm »

Clinton ahead by 2 in GOP internal of IA-01.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326394011/IA-01-The-Polling-Company-for-Rod-Blum-Oct-2016
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Arch
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« Reply #179 on: October 04, 2016, 01:46:40 pm »


Definitely a good sign.
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dspNY
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« Reply #180 on: October 04, 2016, 01:57:51 pm »

Using my 5 point rule for internals, the Nevada internal is a very good sign for Clinton, but the Iowa internal is no better than mixed news (Clinton should win that district by 10)
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dspNY
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« Reply #181 on: October 04, 2016, 02:12:42 pm »

To clarify: My 5 point internal rule--when a candidate puts out an internal poll, their real position, and the position of the party, is 5 points worse than the internal.

Applying this to Nevada, Tarkanian is in a dead heat for NV-3, Heck leads by 5 for Senate and Clinton leads by 2. In 2012, Obama won NV-3 by 0.8% so Clinton looks to be in a good position in the state. Even if the internal were correct (the most optimistic scenario), Clinton would hold a narrow lead statewide as NV-3 was about 5-6 points to the right of the state in 2012.

Iowa is at best mixed news for the Democrats. Obama won IA-1 by 13.5% in 2012 so Clinton needs a larger lead here to win the state. Using the 5 point internal role, Blum leads by 11, Grassley leads by 18 and Clinton leads by 7. If Clinton loses 6.5 points to Obama's margin in IA-1 she is likely trailing in Iowa by 2-3 points
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #182 on: October 04, 2016, 03:20:17 pm »

To clarify: My 5 point internal rule--when a candidate puts out an internal poll, their real position, and the position of the party, is 5 points worse than the internal.

Applying this to Nevada, Tarkanian is in a dead heat for NV-3, Heck leads by 5 for Senate and Clinton leads by 2. In 2012, Obama won NV-3 by 0.8% so Clinton looks to be in a good position in the state. Even if the internal were correct (the most optimistic scenario), Clinton would hold a narrow lead statewide as NV-3 was about 5-6 points to the right of the state in 2012.

Iowa is at best mixed news for the Democrats. Obama won IA-1 by 13.5% in 2012 so Clinton needs a larger lead here to win the state. Using the 5 point internal role, Blum leads by 11, Grassley leads by 18 and Clinton leads by 7. If Clinton loses 6.5 points to Obama's margin in IA-1 she is likely trailing in Iowa by 2-3 points

I was just going to mention isn't this a D +5 PVI according to Cook Political reports, as well as the most Democratic CD in the state?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #183 on: October 04, 2016, 03:28:31 pm »

Clinton +7 in NJ-05 in Democratic internal. Obama lost it by 4 in 2012 and 2 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326407714/NJ-05-GYH-for-HMP-Oct-2016

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dspNY
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« Reply #184 on: October 04, 2016, 03:37:35 pm »

Clinton +7 in NJ-05 in Democratic internal. Obama lost it by 4 in 2012 and 2 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326407714/NJ-05-GYH-for-HMP-Oct-2016



That means Clinton is running slightly ahead of Obama in this district even with a 5 point adjustment against the Democrats. Would also imply she is winning both counties on Long Island since those areas are very similar
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #185 on: October 04, 2016, 06:04:05 pm »

https://twitter.com/LisaDNews/status/783440613207310339

sources in both parties tell me their (separate) internal polling shows @GovGaryJohnson is sliding fast and it benefits @HillaryClinton
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Lok
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« Reply #186 on: October 04, 2016, 06:23:00 pm »

Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents — a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.
At the end of the article it says that they purposely over-sampled Hispanics

Oversample generally means they poll more of a subgroup to get a lower margin of error, but their share of the vote is not overstated. For example, a national poll of 400 might only get 50 Hispanics to respond, which is a huge margin of error. So they could additionally focus poll 200 Hispanics, use the R/D split, and then fit it back to the 50/400.

You are such a hackish poster. And you absolutely work for the HRC campaign.
Speak for yourself.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #187 on: October 04, 2016, 06:28:33 pm »

https://twitter.com/LisaDNews/status/783440613207310339

sources in both parties tell me their (separate) internal polling shows @GovGaryJohnson is sliding fast and it benefits @HillaryClinton

3rd party gonna third party
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Ebsy
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« Reply #188 on: October 05, 2016, 12:33:52 pm »

Democratic Internal has Clinton +4 in ME-02.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326519491/ME-02-Normington-Petts-for-Emily-Cain-Oct-2016

Republican Internal has Clinton +4 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 in 2008 and 4 in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326523708/CA-07-Public-Opinion-Strategies-for-Scott-Jones-and-the-NRCC-Oct-2016
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« Reply #189 on: October 05, 2016, 01:12:57 pm »


That's a solid improvement over the last internal showing her down 4.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #190 on: October 05, 2016, 06:28:58 pm »

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/us/politics/donald-trump-campaign.html?_r=0

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dspNY
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« Reply #191 on: October 05, 2016, 06:32:43 pm »


This part of the article is also interesting...Blunt trails Kander in internal polling for MO-Sen and Clinton is closing the deficit there. That would indicate that Trump is losing a small piece (2-3%) of his base

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #192 on: October 05, 2016, 11:30:08 pm »

This has to have been one of the most impactful Presidential debates ever. Trump is crashing everywhere.
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Arch
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« Reply #193 on: October 05, 2016, 11:39:35 pm »

This has to have been one of the most impactful Presidential debates ever. Trump is crashing everywhere.

Good. He deserves no less.
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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
Clinton1996
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« Reply #194 on: October 06, 2016, 12:00:11 am »

This has to have been one of the most impactful Presidential debates ever. Trump is crashing everywhere.

That's the difference between the first debate in 2012, and the one this year: last time Romney surged but Obama's numbers stayed steady whilst conversely Trump is both dropping and Clinton surging.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #195 on: October 06, 2016, 12:17:01 am »

This has to have been one of the most impactful Presidential debates ever. Trump is crashing everywhere.

The 2004 and 2008 debates also had similar shifts (though the 2008 debate was mixed up Lehman Brothers and the aftermath of that). But IIRC in 2004 Bush was leading by like 10 points before the first debate, and then Kerry brought it back to a tie.
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #196 on: October 06, 2016, 01:25:46 am »

https://twitter.com/LisaDNews/status/783440613207310339

sources in both parties tell me their (separate) internal polling shows @GovGaryJohnson is sliding fast and it benefits @HillaryClinton

Excellent news!  Millenials must finally be coming home!
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Shadows
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« Reply #197 on: October 06, 2016, 03:07:36 am »

https://twitter.com/LisaDNews/status/783440613207310339

sources in both parties tell me their (separate) internal polling shows @GovGaryJohnson is sliding fast and it benefits @HillaryClinton

Excellent news!  Millenials must finally be coming home!

Let's go Bernie!
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #198 on: October 06, 2016, 09:16:19 am »

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-western-nevada-arizona-229219

Two post-debate polls of likely Colorado voters this week showed Clinton leading Trump by 11 points overall..“This is her high water mark right now,” said a GOP operative whose private polling showed Clinton at her highest point all year.

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Ebsy
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« Reply #199 on: October 06, 2016, 01:04:52 pm »

Clinton +14 in Democratic Internal of CA-49. Romney won it by 6 in 2012 and Obama won it by 1 in 2008. Applegate leads Issa by 4. Clinton is almost certainly going to win OC if these numbers are close to true.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326641168/CA-49-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016
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