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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 60448 times)
NV less likely to flip than FL/WI
xingkerui
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« Reply #200 on: October 05, 2016, 01:12:57 pm »

Democratic Internal has Clinton +4 in ME-02.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326519491/ME-02-Normington-Petts-for-Emily-Cain-Oct-2016


That's a solid improvement over the last internal showing her down 4.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #201 on: October 05, 2016, 06:28:58 pm »

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/us/politics/donald-trump-campaign.html?_r=0

Quote
Mr. Trump has already slipped perceptibly in public polls, trailing widely this week in Pennsylvania and by smaller margins in Florida and North Carolina — three states he cannot afford to lose. But private polling by both parties shows an even more precipitous drop
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dspNY
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« Reply #202 on: October 05, 2016, 06:32:43 pm »

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/us/politics/donald-trump-campaign.html?_r=0

Quote
Mr. Trump has already slipped perceptibly in public polls, trailing widely this week in Pennsylvania and by smaller margins in Florida and North Carolina — three states he cannot afford to lose. But private polling by both parties shows an even more precipitous drop

This part of the article is also interesting...Blunt trails Kander in internal polling for MO-Sen and Clinton is closing the deficit there. That would indicate that Trump is losing a small piece (2-3%) of his base

Quote
Compounding their difficulties, Republicans are also fending off a challenge to Senator Richard M. Burr in North Carolina, a state Mrs. Clinton is determined to win, and have also become just as worried about Senator Roy Blunt’s prospects in Missouri. Strategists in both parties who have seen internal polling say Mr. Blunt, whose seat initially seemed safe, is now trailing his Democratic challenger, Jason Kander, a deft campaigner who has been helped by Mrs. Clinton’s narrowing deficit in the state.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #203 on: October 05, 2016, 11:30:08 pm »

This has to have been one of the most impactful Presidential debates ever. Trump is crashing everywhere.
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Arch
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« Reply #204 on: October 05, 2016, 11:39:35 pm »

This has to have been one of the most impactful Presidential debates ever. Trump is crashing everywhere.

Good. He deserves no less.
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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
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« Reply #205 on: October 06, 2016, 12:00:11 am »

This has to have been one of the most impactful Presidential debates ever. Trump is crashing everywhere.

That's the difference between the first debate in 2012, and the one this year: last time Romney surged but Obama's numbers stayed steady whilst conversely Trump is both dropping and Clinton surging.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #206 on: October 06, 2016, 12:17:01 am »

This has to have been one of the most impactful Presidential debates ever. Trump is crashing everywhere.

The 2004 and 2008 debates also had similar shifts (though the 2008 debate was mixed up Lehman Brothers and the aftermath of that). But IIRC in 2004 Bush was leading by like 10 points before the first debate, and then Kerry brought it back to a tie.
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Solidarity Forever
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« Reply #207 on: October 06, 2016, 01:25:46 am »

https://twitter.com/LisaDNews/status/783440613207310339

sources in both parties tell me their (separate) internal polling shows @GovGaryJohnson is sliding fast and it benefits @HillaryClinton

Excellent news!  Millenials must finally be coming home!
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Shadows
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« Reply #208 on: October 06, 2016, 03:07:36 am »

https://twitter.com/LisaDNews/status/783440613207310339

sources in both parties tell me their (separate) internal polling shows @GovGaryJohnson is sliding fast and it benefits @HillaryClinton

Excellent news!  Millenials must finally be coming home!

Let's go Bernie!
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #209 on: October 06, 2016, 09:16:19 am »

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-western-nevada-arizona-229219

Two post-debate polls of likely Colorado voters this week showed Clinton leading Trump by 11 points overall..“This is her high water mark right now,” said a GOP operative whose private polling showed Clinton at her highest point all year.

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Ebsy
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« Reply #210 on: October 06, 2016, 01:04:52 pm »

Clinton +14 in Democratic Internal of CA-49. Romney won it by 6 in 2012 and Obama won it by 1 in 2008. Applegate leads Issa by 4. Clinton is almost certainly going to win OC if these numbers are close to true.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326641168/CA-49-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #211 on: October 06, 2016, 01:08:28 pm »

seeing issa gone would be a as refreshing  for me as harry reid's departure is for right-wingers.

a shame that mister gowdy has such a safe seat. Wink
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #212 on: October 06, 2016, 01:18:04 pm »

Republican Internal has Clinton +4 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 in 2008 and 4 in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326523708/CA-07-Public-Opinion-Strategies-for-Scott-Jones-and-the-NRCC-Oct-2016

As usual, CA-07 will be close. It's nice that at least one of my votes really counts. I've been push polled by a Dem poll; there will probably be more.

I doubt that Jones is ahead by that much if Clinton leads by 4. Bera has been hammering Jones on sexual harassment allegations, while Jones has been attacking illegal fundraising by Bera's father. This will be a close race for the third time in a row. I expect that Bera will pull it off though.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #213 on: October 06, 2016, 01:27:59 pm »

Clinton +14 in Democratic Internal of CA-49. Romney won it by 6 in 2012 and Obama won it by 1 in 2008. Applegate leads Issa by 4. Clinton is almost certainly going to win OC if these numbers are close to true.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326641168/CA-49-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Whoa if true
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #214 on: October 06, 2016, 01:30:40 pm »

Republican Internal has Clinton +4 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 in 2008 and 4 in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326523708/CA-07-Public-Opinion-Strategies-for-Scott-Jones-and-the-NRCC-Oct-2016

As usual, CA-07 will be close. It's nice that at least one of my votes really counts. I've been push polled by a Dem poll; there will probably be more.

I doubt that Jones is ahead by that much if Clinton leads by 4. Bera has been hammering Jones on sexual harassment allegations, while Jones has been attacking illegal fundraising by Bera's father. This will be a close race for the third time in a row. I expect that Bera will pull it off though.
Former resident of CA-04 speaking.

I fully expect Bera to win. He pulled it off against Doug Ose, former Congressman from that district (back in the mid-00's before redistricting). Ose was a pro choice Republican and on the whole, very moderate. Scott Jones, on the other hand, is not.

Bera won in a midterm election, he should win now.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #215 on: October 06, 2016, 03:10:36 pm »

Clinton +14 in Democratic Internal of CA-49. Romney won it by 6 in 2012 and Obama won it by 1 in 2008. Applegate leads Issa by 4. Clinton is almost certainly going to win OC if these numbers are close to true.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326641168/CA-49-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Def good news for the Dem challenger even if we use the +5 internal rule.

However, most of Isaa's district is actually in North County San Diego, so I wouldn't assume from this internal that OC will flip (Although I think it will for other reasons).
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Maxwell
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« Reply #216 on: October 06, 2016, 03:24:50 pm »

yaaaaas true scumbag Issa is going to be sent to the low energy loser GRAVEYARD.
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dspNY
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« Reply #217 on: October 06, 2016, 03:36:54 pm »

John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704

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MasterJedi
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« Reply #218 on: October 06, 2016, 03:40:04 pm »

John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704



Aka they're finished, and with the way things are going NV won't go their way and I still suspect if he continues to crash Iowa and Ohio are gone too.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #219 on: October 06, 2016, 03:44:52 pm »

Pennsylvania not even mentioned!
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Ronnie
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« Reply #220 on: October 06, 2016, 03:45:00 pm »

John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704


They're basically admitting that their candidate can't make it to 270 then.  If that doesn't signify the end, then I don't know what does.
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dspNY
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« Reply #221 on: October 06, 2016, 03:46:58 pm »

John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704


They're basically admitting that their candidate can't make it to 270 then.  If that doesn't signify the end, then I don't know what does.

Clinton pretty much has Trump 99% boxed out if that scenario is true. No complacency though
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #222 on: October 06, 2016, 03:47:27 pm »

Clinton +14 in Democratic Internal of CA-49. Romney won it by 6 in 2012 and Obama won it by 1 in 2008. Applegate leads Issa by 4. Clinton is almost certainly going to win OC if these numbers are close to true.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326641168/CA-49-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016


That would be an incredible. Issa ran his first TV ad a week ago, shedding any doubt that he's in the race of his life.
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Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst
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« Reply #223 on: October 06, 2016, 03:47:50 pm »

John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704

If NH is in his path to 270, then he has no path.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #224 on: October 06, 2016, 03:51:29 pm »

Remember, Trump campaign's pollster is the McLaughlin guy who showed Eric Cantor cruising for reelection.
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