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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 63937 times)
ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #200 on: October 06, 2016, 01:08:28 pm »

seeing issa gone would be a as refreshing  for me as harry reid's departure is for right-wingers.

a shame that mister gowdy has such a safe seat. Wink
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Deranged California Suburbanite
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« Reply #201 on: October 06, 2016, 01:18:04 pm »


As usual, CA-07 will be close. It's nice that at least one of my votes really counts. I've been push polled by a Dem poll; there will probably be more.

I doubt that Jones is ahead by that much if Clinton leads by 4. Bera has been hammering Jones on sexual harassment allegations, while Jones has been attacking illegal fundraising by Bera's father. This will be a close race for the third time in a row. I expect that Bera will pull it off though.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #202 on: October 06, 2016, 01:27:59 pm »

Clinton +14 in Democratic Internal of CA-49. Romney won it by 6 in 2012 and Obama won it by 1 in 2008. Applegate leads Issa by 4. Clinton is almost certainly going to win OC if these numbers are close to true.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326641168/CA-49-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Whoa if true
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #203 on: October 06, 2016, 01:30:40 pm »


As usual, CA-07 will be close. It's nice that at least one of my votes really counts. I've been push polled by a Dem poll; there will probably be more.

I doubt that Jones is ahead by that much if Clinton leads by 4. Bera has been hammering Jones on sexual harassment allegations, while Jones has been attacking illegal fundraising by Bera's father. This will be a close race for the third time in a row. I expect that Bera will pull it off though.
Former resident of CA-04 speaking.

I fully expect Bera to win. He pulled it off against Doug Ose, former Congressman from that district (back in the mid-00's before redistricting). Ose was a pro choice Republican and on the whole, very moderate. Scott Jones, on the other hand, is not.

Bera won in a midterm election, he should win now.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #204 on: October 06, 2016, 03:10:36 pm »

Clinton +14 in Democratic Internal of CA-49. Romney won it by 6 in 2012 and Obama won it by 1 in 2008. Applegate leads Issa by 4. Clinton is almost certainly going to win OC if these numbers are close to true.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326641168/CA-49-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Def good news for the Dem challenger even if we use the +5 internal rule.

However, most of Isaa's district is actually in North County San Diego, so I wouldn't assume from this internal that OC will flip (Although I think it will for other reasons).
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Maxwell
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« Reply #205 on: October 06, 2016, 03:24:50 pm »

yaaaaas true scumbag Issa is going to be sent to the low energy loser GRAVEYARD.
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dspNY
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« Reply #206 on: October 06, 2016, 03:36:54 pm »

John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704

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MasterJedi
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« Reply #207 on: October 06, 2016, 03:40:04 pm »

John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704



Aka they're finished, and with the way things are going NV won't go their way and I still suspect if he continues to crash Iowa and Ohio are gone too.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #208 on: October 06, 2016, 03:44:52 pm »

Pennsylvania not even mentioned!
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Ronnie
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« Reply #209 on: October 06, 2016, 03:45:00 pm »

John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704


They're basically admitting that their candidate can't make it to 270 then.  If that doesn't signify the end, then I don't know what does.
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dspNY
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« Reply #210 on: October 06, 2016, 03:46:58 pm »

John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704


They're basically admitting that their candidate can't make it to 270 then.  If that doesn't signify the end, then I don't know what does.

Clinton pretty much has Trump 99% boxed out if that scenario is true. No complacency though
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #211 on: October 06, 2016, 03:47:27 pm »

Clinton +14 in Democratic Internal of CA-49. Romney won it by 6 in 2012 and Obama won it by 1 in 2008. Applegate leads Issa by 4. Clinton is almost certainly going to win OC if these numbers are close to true.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326641168/CA-49-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016


That would be an incredible. Issa ran his first TV ad a week ago, shedding any doubt that he's in the race of his life.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #212 on: October 06, 2016, 03:51:29 pm »

Remember, Trump campaign's pollster is the McLaughlin guy who showed Eric Cantor cruising for reelection.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #213 on: October 06, 2016, 03:53:54 pm »

Remember, Trump campaign's pollster is the McLaughlin guy who showed Eric Cantor cruising for reelection.
Nah, that is just his New York pollster. His real pollster is Tony Fabrizio iirc.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #214 on: October 06, 2016, 03:59:42 pm »

Remember, Trump campaign's pollster is the McLaughlin guy who showed Eric Cantor cruising for reelection.
Nah, that is just his New York pollster. His real pollster is Tony Fabrizio iirc.

So, has he actually done any New York polling or is it just an honorary position?
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #215 on: October 06, 2016, 04:09:18 pm »

John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704


They're basically admitting that their candidate can't make it to 270 then.  If that doesn't signify the end, then I don't know what does.

If Trump can get back ahead in NH, NC and FL (which they don't call long shots) they get to 269.  ME2 gets him to 270.  If you look at his TV spending last week, this seems to be their strategy, with CO being their only additional significant spend as a possible backup. 

It's a risky strategy to bet the farm on a plan that relies on winning NV or CO but if PA, WI, and MI are looking to stay in the blue wall, what other choice do they have?  They are focussing on states Bush Jr won at last once except for NM (too many mexicans) and VA (home of Kaine)
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #216 on: October 06, 2016, 04:23:24 pm »

Does anyone know if internal polling is more accurate than public polls?

I'd imagine so since they use voter registration files and go by vote history rather than people that claim they're likely to vote. Public polls I imagine understate Democrat voters who tell pollsters they're unsure of voting but end up voting anyway.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #217 on: October 06, 2016, 04:28:25 pm »

Does anyone know if internal polling is more accurate than public polls?

I'd imagine so since they use voter registration files and go by vote history rather than people that claim they're likely to vote. Public polls I imagine understate Democrat voters who tell pollsters they're unsure of voting but end up voting anyway.
Obama's internals were very accurate in 2012, while Romney's were horribly off.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #218 on: October 06, 2016, 04:39:57 pm »

Internal polls should be better because they start with the voter data and they have their own metriics ofrom their GOTV operations, but they can get things wrong if they make bad assumptions.  Romney's team assumed they would get their voters out and Obama wouldn't.  They were wrong. It would be curious to see what assumptions the Trump team are using to show leads in NV and OH.  I would bet that Clinton internals have her up in both. 

It's like that recent upshot experiment where they gave the same raw data to four different pollsters, and each had a different result. Some showing trump up some Clinton up.   
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dspNY
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« Reply #219 on: October 06, 2016, 05:40:49 pm »

More internal poll goodness. Remember when Gallup said they were not polling the Presidential race directly? Well apparently they are, and here is a peek into their methodology for a poll they took from September 14-18.

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When doing the back-calculations, this was a national RV poll of 931 registered voters. Their results were:

Clinton 444/931 (47.7%, rounded up to 48)
Trump 407/931 (43.7%, rounded up to 44)
Undecided or Third Party 80/931 (8.6%)
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #220 on: October 06, 2016, 05:44:14 pm »

If Gallup has Clinton up by 4, then we could be seeing an Akin effect after all.
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dspNY
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« Reply #221 on: October 06, 2016, 05:44:48 pm »

If Gallup has Clinton up by 4, then we could be seeing an Akin effect after all.

They had Clinton up by 4 among RVs from September 14-18
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #222 on: October 06, 2016, 05:45:44 pm »

Even during her bad spell, pollster.com always had Clinton ahead by 4 points. This race was never "tied".
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #223 on: October 06, 2016, 05:47:46 pm »

If Gallup has Clinton up by 4, then we could be seeing an Akin effect after all.

They had Clinton up by 4 among RVs from September 14-18
I saw that, I'm just saying that, given their ineffectiveness, it's not a stretch to say they're underestimating her.

Even during her bad spell, pollster.com always had Clinton ahead by 4 points. This race was never "tied".

Yeah, but more people cite RCP. I like Huffpo's pollster, but they seem to get less attention overall.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #224 on: October 06, 2016, 05:56:58 pm »

Even during her bad spell, pollster.com always had Clinton ahead by 4 points. This race was never "tied".

Yeah, but more people cite RCP. I like Huffpo's pollster, but they seem to get less attention overall.

The question is why. RCP is notorious for cherrypicking R friendly polls.
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