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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 64123 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #275 on: October 10, 2016, 02:07:48 pm »


If this is accurate, even with the 5 point rule, Missouri is in play.
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« Reply #276 on: October 10, 2016, 02:09:04 pm »


The fact that Missouri may have 2 D Senators and a D Governor is quite a turn of events imo. Voting for HRC would be the icing on the cake.
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #277 on: October 11, 2016, 12:10:41 am »
« Edited: October 11, 2016, 12:14:33 am by Doctor Imperialism »

A former Cruz guy on another forum I post on says he got his hands on some brand-new Trump internals, via a contact in the campaign. Take these with as many grains of salt as you want, but here they are:

New Hampshire - Clinton +9
Pennsylvania - Clinton +7
Ohio - Clinton +2
Michigan - Clinton +6
Wisconsin - Clinton +4
Iowa - Trump +2
Virginia - Clinton +10
North Carolina - Clinton +5
Georgia - TIE
Florida - Clinton +4
Colorado - Clinton +7
Arizona - Trump +1
Nevada - Clinton +3
Utah - Trump +4

Trump's support in Utah is apparently in the low 30's.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #278 on: October 11, 2016, 12:13:48 am »

If Marquette confirms these results in a few days, I'm officially pissed at WI. Disgusting.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #279 on: October 11, 2016, 12:15:51 am »
« Edited: October 11, 2016, 12:18:58 am by Ronnie »

If Marquette confirms these results in a few days, I'm officially pissed at WI. Disgusting.

You might be pissed at WI, but you should be absolutely elated at NC, GA and FL, all of which are states Trump cannot lose and still win the election.

Of course, I'm taking those polls with a grain of salt, but they do look plausible.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #280 on: October 11, 2016, 12:18:20 am »

No way these would get leaked.
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #281 on: October 11, 2016, 12:34:41 am »


Like I said, take those numbers with as many grains of salt as you want - but I think you're giving the Trump campaign a little too much credit.

According to the guy that posted these, Other/Undecided is getting a larger percentage in Utah than Trump is (they didn't include McMullin or Johnson as a separate option)

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Ozymandias
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« Reply #282 on: October 11, 2016, 07:17:38 am »

I think this is a leaked internal FL poll from "conservative-leaning Associated Industries of Florida"...

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/223845-national-democrats-pull-ads-new-associated-industries-poll-shows-patrick-murphy-trailing-marco-rubio-eight

10/2-10/4

Rubio - 49
Murphy - 41

Clinton - 44
Trump - 41
Johnson - 6
Stein - 2
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #283 on: October 11, 2016, 07:23:35 am »

Seems like there is a hispanic vote percentage voting HRC for top of the ticket and rubio for downballot
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Gass3268
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« Reply #284 on: October 11, 2016, 07:39:54 am »

Pre-pussygate
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #285 on: October 11, 2016, 08:48:59 am »

A former Cruz guy on another forum I post on says he got his hands on some brand-new Trump internals, via a contact in the campaign. Take these with as many grains of salt as you want, but here they are:

New Hampshire - Clinton +9
Pennsylvania - Clinton +7
Ohio - Clinton +2
Michigan - Clinton +6
Wisconsin - Clinton +4
Iowa - Trump +2
Virginia - Clinton +10
North Carolina - Clinton +5
Georgia - TIE
Florida - Clinton +4
Colorado - Clinton +7
Arizona - Trump +1
Nevada - Clinton +3
Utah - Trump +4

Trump's support in Utah is apparently in the low 30's.


What forum is this?
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #286 on: October 11, 2016, 09:55:29 am »
« Edited: October 11, 2016, 10:03:20 am by Ozymandias »

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785854945136353280

mike murphy ‏@murphymike  5m5 minutes ago
mike murphy Retweeted Donald J. Trump
Actually, nope. Just saw legit private polling done AFTER DEBATE.  You are down by double digits. #YugeDisastah #BigLoser

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785856534890905600

mike murphy ‏@murphymike  2m2 minutes ago
mike murphy Retweeted Robert Costa
Just saw private natl poll with Trump unfav at 66%(!)… so OK Trumpolini, teach us!  #IdiotNominee

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785857249734385665

mike murphy ‏@murphymike  4m4 minutes ago
mike murphy Retweeted Warren Luke Tarbiat
Even worse than the -11% in the highly respected NBC/WSJ poll…

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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #287 on: October 11, 2016, 09:57:01 am »

mike murphy is out for revenge.

well, it's his own fail...if some campaign would have been able to find all those trump tapes, it would have been his own.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #288 on: October 11, 2016, 10:22:51 am »

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/10/theres-nothing-better-than-a-scared-rich-candidate/497522/

I would take anything from Mike Murphy with a grain of salt. He completely failed Jeb. Internal national polls not really helpful either.

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Ozymandias
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« Reply #289 on: October 11, 2016, 09:19:03 pm »

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/12/us/politics/donald-trump-gop.html

"Mrs. Clinton’s campaign has concluded that at least two traditionally Republican states, Georgia and Arizona, are realistic targets for her campaign to win over. And Republican polling has found that Mr. Trump is at dire risk of losing Georgia, according to people briefed on the polls, who spoke on the condition of anonymity."
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dspNY
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« Reply #290 on: October 12, 2016, 04:10:37 pm »

DCCC supposedly has Stephanie Murphy ahead of Rep. John Mica by a 45-43 margin in FL-7, and Clinton ahead by a 47-36 margin

http://2vmhfw1isbe32j3tgn3epw3x.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/FL-07-Poll-Release-2016.10.11.pdf

Using the 5 point rule, Mica is narrowly ahead but Clinton leads by 6 in a district that has an R+4 PVI, meaning that she is in very good shape in the I-4
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #291 on: October 13, 2016, 02:10:57 am »

From a Politico piece.

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Nhoj
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« Reply #292 on: October 13, 2016, 12:09:58 pm »

I Would note that the repubs didn't have gerrymanders in pretty much every state in 08.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #293 on: October 13, 2016, 12:15:02 pm »

I Would note that the repubs didn't have gerrymanders in pretty much every state in 08.

Plus Blue Dogs were still a thing.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #294 on: October 13, 2016, 01:02:38 pm »



Rep. Joe Heck is still slightly ahead of Catherine Cortez Masto in the U.S. Senate race but Hillary Clinton is now significantly in front of Donald Trump in Nevada, according to a new GOP poll.

Heck is ahead 47-44 while Hillary Clinton leads 45-39. The survey, taken by the well-respected Public Opinion Strategies for the Senate Leadership Fund this week, is of 600 registered voters and has a 4 percent margin of error. (It has 21 percent Hispanic respondents.)
http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/heck-hanging-onto-lead-trump-falling-behind-in-new-gop-poll
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #295 on: October 13, 2016, 01:14:21 pm »

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/hillary-clinton-democrats-downballot-229718

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Xing
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« Reply #296 on: October 13, 2016, 01:18:16 pm »

They're not wrong. Trump was never going to win Nevada.
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dspNY
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« Reply #297 on: October 13, 2016, 01:44:53 pm »


That would explain why Trump has consolidated to a 4 state campaign (PA, OH, NC, FL). He has to win them all. Clinton only needs one. Right now, Clinton is winning them all
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dspNY
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« Reply #298 on: October 14, 2016, 08:31:41 am »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #299 on: October 14, 2016, 08:32:26 am »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

Hillary Clinton has never lost South Dakota...
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