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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 64158 times)
HillOfANight
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« Reply #300 on: October 14, 2016, 08:40:09 am »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-04/which-states-can-gary-johnson-and-jill-stein-spoil

Clarity Campaign Labs is projecting Montana to be a 1.1 Trump win. A Johnson surge or Trump collapse could move it in her favor.



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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #301 on: October 14, 2016, 08:47:57 am »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-04/which-states-can-gary-johnson-and-jill-stein-spoil

Clarity Campaign Labs is projecting Montana to be a 1.1 Trump win. A Johnson surge or Trump collapse could move it in her favor.





They're dreaming.  I can't see the third party vote breaking double digits anywhere except Utah, NM, and maybe Alaska.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #302 on: October 14, 2016, 08:50:52 am »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-04/which-states-can-gary-johnson-and-jill-stein-spoil

Clarity Campaign Labs is projecting Montana to be a 1.1 Trump win. A Johnson surge or Trump collapse could move it in her favor.


They're dreaming.  I can't see the third party vote breaking double digits anywhere except Utah, NM, and maybe Alaska.

Yeah, they really are. At least a month ago it would have been cute theorizing, but it's very clear in the polling that a regular 3rd party collapse is well underway.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #303 on: October 14, 2016, 09:03:37 am »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-04/which-states-can-gary-johnson-and-jill-stein-spoil

Clarity Campaign Labs is projecting Montana to be a 1.1 Trump win. A Johnson surge or Trump collapse could move it in her favor.




Arkansas? Oklahoma? They can't be serious.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #304 on: October 14, 2016, 09:12:35 am »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-04/which-states-can-gary-johnson-and-jill-stein-spoil

Clarity Campaign Labs is projecting Montana to be a 1.1 Trump win. A Johnson surge or Trump collapse could move it in her favor.




Arkansas? Oklahoma? They can't be serious.

Well if third party vote share was 16% and took exclusively from Trump it is possible but it's not anywhere close to what actually will happen.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #305 on: October 14, 2016, 09:18:00 am »

Montana MAYBE. The others are insanity (and not states historically friendly to 3rd parties)
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #306 on: October 14, 2016, 12:18:06 pm »

Well, Monmouth's IN/MO poll match Clarity's expectation exactly, and the AZ margin is close to the polling average.

Considering that polling is sparse in Okalahoma/Arkansas/Montana, maybe we have to suspend our disbelief for this crazy 2016.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #307 on: October 14, 2016, 12:26:52 pm »

Well, Monmouth's IN/MO poll match Clarity's expectation exactly, and the AZ margin is close to the polling average.

Considering that polling is sparse in Okalahoma/Arkansas/Montana, maybe we have to suspend our disbelief for this crazy 2016.

Oklahoma and Arkansas are along with West Virginia the quintessential Trump states.
It's no coincidence that they trended sharply Republican during the Obama years.
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dspNY
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« Reply #308 on: October 16, 2016, 01:45:15 pm »
« Edited: October 16, 2016, 01:46:53 pm by dspNY »

CNN Inside Politics: Internal Republican polling has Trump trailing by double digits in PA and NH. As a result, Toomey and Ayotte also trail, but only by a few points. In NV, their polling has Trump "trailing by single digits, but Joe Heck up a little." That information is in the CNN embedded video.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/16/politics/ip-forecast-clinton-red-states-trump-down-ballot/index.html
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dspNY
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« Reply #309 on: October 16, 2016, 01:52:51 pm »

Other tidbits on AZ and GA: Clinton's team thinks they have a better shot at AZ than GA. Robby Mook doesn't want to expand the map because his thinking is to get the 270 EVs as painlessly as possible. However there are talks to plan trips to AZ and/or GA in the last week or two if their polling says they're in striking distance. They consider GA winnable but tough because the Atlanta suburbs are still behaving more like traditional GOP suburbs than the DC, Charlotte or Research Triangle suburbs
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The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein)
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« Reply #310 on: October 16, 2016, 02:01:48 pm »

Other tidbits on AZ and GA: Clinton's team thinks they have a better shot at AZ than GA. Robby Mook doesn't want to expand the map because his thinking is to get the 270 EVs as painlessly as possible. However there are talks to plan trips to AZ and/or GA in the last week or two if their polling says they're in striking distance. They consider GA winnable but tough because the Atlanta suburbs are still behaving more like traditional GOP suburbs than the DC, Charlotte or Research Triangle suburbs
I can see that. It is where a Senior Developer and a Hospital Revenue Bureaucrat can still have 2.5 kids and still live like Republicans.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #311 on: October 16, 2016, 02:35:37 pm »

Other tidbits on AZ and GA: Clinton's team thinks they have a better shot at AZ than GA. Robby Mook doesn't want to expand the map because his thinking is to get the 270 EVs as painlessly as possible. However there are talks to plan trips to AZ and/or GA in the last week or two if their polling says they're in striking distance. They consider GA winnable but tough because the Atlanta suburbs are still behaving more like traditional GOP suburbs than the DC, Charlotte or Research Triangle suburbs

If these states' senate races were competitive then I'm pretty sure she would contest them more vigorously.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #312 on: October 16, 2016, 02:47:10 pm »

Other tidbits on AZ and GA: Clinton's team thinks they have a better shot at AZ than GA. Robby Mook doesn't want to expand the map because his thinking is to get the 270 EVs as painlessly as possible. However there are talks to plan trips to AZ and/or GA in the last week or two if their polling says they're in striking distance. They consider GA winnable but tough because the Atlanta suburbs are still behaving more like traditional GOP suburbs than the DC, Charlotte or Research Triangle suburbs

Hmmm that's interesting strategic logic there. I understand the concept of wanting to focus time and resources on OH,FL, and NC and a lesser extent NV, but I think they might be playing it too safe in the case of AZ, which statewide polling and Trump's own internals clearly consider to be endangered, judging by his repeated recent visits to the state, and it is worth it in the long term to boost Dem turnout and infrastructure in a state that is starting to shift purple. GA, I can understand considering the structural advantages the Reps have and how difficult it is to get that extra 1% to move it across the finish line, not to mention the cost of the Atlanta media market.

However, I would trade IA for AZ any day as a medium and longer term investment.
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #313 on: October 16, 2016, 04:02:39 pm »

Other tidbits on AZ and GA: Clinton's team thinks they have a better shot at AZ than GA. Robby Mook doesn't want to expand the map because his thinking is to get the 270 EVs as painlessly as possible. However there are talks to plan trips to AZ and/or GA in the last week or two if their polling says they're in striking distance. They consider GA winnable but tough because the Atlanta suburbs are still behaving more like traditional GOP suburbs than the DC, Charlotte or Research Triangle suburbs

Hmmm that's interesting strategic logic there. I understand the concept of wanting to focus time and resources on OH,FL, and NC and a lesser extent NV, but I think they might be playing it too safe in the case of AZ, which statewide polling and Trump's own internals clearly consider to be endangered, judging by his repeated recent visits to the state, and it is worth it in the long term to boost Dem turnout and infrastructure in a state that is starting to shift purple. GA, I can understand considering the structural advantages the Reps have and how difficult it is to get that extra 1% to move it across the finish line, not to mention the cost of the Atlanta media market.

However, I would trade IA for AZ any day as a medium and longer term investment.

I think they care more about running up the score in PA, NH, NC, and maybe Florida to try and win the Senate races there, instead of going for AZ/GA which would look nice on the final map but don't (right now) have competitive Senate races to justify the effort.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #314 on: October 16, 2016, 04:05:44 pm »

chelsea is going to be in arizona soon.

more like toe-dipping i guess.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #315 on: October 16, 2016, 05:08:49 pm »

NBC article on Arizona today - nothing about internal polls but related to the posts above.

Arizona seems to be the prime candidate for playing the role Indiana did in 2008a state that one wouldn't expect to tip over to the Democrat, but where a serious asymmetry in ground game coupled with a bad macro environment for the Republican makes for a surprise.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-risk-losing-arizona-state-officials-say-n667281
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Devils30
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« Reply #316 on: October 16, 2016, 05:14:16 pm »

Ads only help very marginally and it's not like Trump is spending anything in AZ or GA either. If Hillary wins by over 7% nationally then AZ is possible and GA at maybe 8% or so. I would add an Atlanta rally because it's easy to schedule between FL and NC visits.
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Alcon
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« Reply #317 on: October 16, 2016, 06:08:53 pm »

Lake Research (D) finds Trump +1 on behalf of the Alaska Democratic Party, 500 likely voters

http://midnightsunak.com/2016/10/16/midnight-sun-exclusive-new-poll-shows-trump-clinton-tied-alaska/

Trump 37% (-1)
Clinton 36% (+6)
Johnson 7% (-4)
Stein 3% (+1)

Results as compared to 8/9-14
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #318 on: October 16, 2016, 06:09:56 pm »

Probably something like +5, then, which sounds right.
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cinyc
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« Reply #319 on: October 16, 2016, 06:50:21 pm »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

How does NBC define lean versus safe?
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dspNY
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« Reply #320 on: October 16, 2016, 06:56:28 pm »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

How does NBC define lean versus safe?

I don't know...I don't work for them and they haven't revealed the secret sauce recipe

Alaska amazingly will move to Lean Republican with this poll. Even taking into account that this is a Dem internal, the last four polls have been Trump by 8, 6, 3, and now 1. Each pollster (Ivan Moore Research and Lake Research) has shown a five point shift to Clinton since the first debate and the Access Hollywood tapes
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cinyc
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« Reply #321 on: October 16, 2016, 07:06:39 pm »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

How does NBC define lean versus safe?

I don't know...I don't work for them and they haven't revealed the secret sauce recipe

My one question, cheap Google Consumer Research South Dakota poll that's currently in the field is only half-done, but so far, I can tell you there are no real surprises except perhaps the Johnson percentage.  It's pretty much in line with what I expected from South Dakota.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #322 on: October 16, 2016, 10:23:04 pm »

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854852709679104

MN-03 CD: SUSA Poll

Clinton 48%
Trump 35%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%
Other/Undecided 11%

Obama won this district in 2012 by less than 1%.



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Holmes
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« Reply #323 on: October 16, 2016, 10:27:27 pm »

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854852709679104

MN-03 CD: SUSA Poll

Clinton 48%
Trump 35%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%
Other/Undecided 11%

Obama won this district in 2012 by less than 1%.

This doesn't seem like an internal but it does show that Clinton will romp Trump in Minnesota.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #324 on: October 16, 2016, 10:30:40 pm »

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854852709679104

MN-03 CD: SUSA Poll

Clinton 48%
Trump 35%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%
Other/Undecided 11%

Obama won this district in 2012 by less than 1%.

This doesn't seem like an internal but it does show that Clinton will romp Trump in Minnesota.

Not an Internal. Didn't know the best place to post it and didn't think it deserved it's on thread so I figured it would be alright here.
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