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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 59990 times)
HillOfANight
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« Reply #350 on: October 17, 2016, 10:57:42 am »

http://elections.ap.org/content/ad-spending

From 9/4-9/10 they did a pointless $12k buy in Georgia... Just a troll move, more to create headlines and freak out Trump than to move numbers.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #351 on: October 17, 2016, 02:18:56 pm »

@markzbarabak

More evidence Arizona is in play: Fresh-out-of-the-field poll by GOP firm @azhighground shows Clinton +2, suggesting effectively a toss-up.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #352 on: October 17, 2016, 02:20:49 pm »

@markzbarabak

More evidence Arizona is in play: Fresh-out-of-the-field poll by GOP firm @azhighground shows Clinton +2, suggesting effectively a toss-up.

More likely a tilt D if that's the case.
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BeTo In DiSaRrAy
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #353 on: October 17, 2016, 02:55:41 pm »

https://www.scribd.com/document/327883693/CA-07-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +17 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 points in 2008 and 4 points in 2012. Woah if true.

Did they poll anyone in Folsom? I'm from that district and I'm rather shocked to be honest. +10 for Clinton and +5 for Bera would be what I expected, but this is crazy. Both Bera and Jones have had attack ads put out against them re Jones's sexual harassment issues, Bera's father's illegal fundraising and Bera's support for the Iran deal. It is a decently educated suburban district, so maybe that plays into it? I really haven't seen that many signs for any candidate for president and only a smattering of signs for Jones.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #354 on: October 17, 2016, 02:58:01 pm »

https://www.scribd.com/document/327883693/CA-07-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +17 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 points in 2008 and 4 points in 2012. Woah if true.

Did they poll anyone in Folsom? I'm from that district and I'm rather shocked to be honest. +10 for Clinton and +5 for Bera would be what I expected, but this is crazy. Both Bera and Jones have had attack ads put out against them re Jones's sexual harassment issues, Bera's father's illegal fundraising and Bera's support for the Iran deal. It is a decently educated suburban district, so maybe that plays into it? I really haven't seen that many signs for any candidate for president and only a smattering of signs for Jones.
Well educated suburb and Jones was one of the first to support Trump.

Bera isn't going to win by anywhere near that margin, but it could be around 3-4 points. I am from that district too.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #355 on: October 17, 2016, 03:10:42 pm »

https://www.scribd.com/document/327883693/CA-07-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +17 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 points in 2008 and 4 points in 2012. Woah if true.

Did they poll anyone in Folsom? I'm from that district and I'm rather shocked to be honest. +10 for Clinton and +5 for Bera would be what I expected, but this is crazy. Both Bera and Jones have had attack ads put out against them re Jones's sexual harassment issues, Bera's father's illegal fundraising and Bera's support for the Iran deal. It is a decently educated suburban district, so maybe that plays into it? I really haven't seen that many signs for any candidate for president and only a smattering of signs for Jones.

Why do Republicans think that the Iran deal is a silver bullet against Democrats?
Unless there is an abnormal number of Orthodox Jews in the district this seems like a non-issue for most voters.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #356 on: October 17, 2016, 03:17:31 pm »

the iran deal is like benghazi 2012.

rallying up the base...not much interest with others.
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darthpi
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« Reply #357 on: October 17, 2016, 05:16:02 pm »

https://www.scribd.com/document/327883693/CA-07-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +17 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 points in 2008 and 4 points in 2012. Woah if true.

Did they poll anyone in Folsom? I'm from that district and I'm rather shocked to be honest. +10 for Clinton and +5 for Bera would be what I expected, but this is crazy. Both Bera and Jones have had attack ads put out against them re Jones's sexual harassment issues, Bera's father's illegal fundraising and Bera's support for the Iran deal. It is a decently educated suburban district, so maybe that plays into it? I really haven't seen that many signs for any candidate for president and only a smattering of signs for Jones.

Why do Republicans think that the Iran deal is a silver bullet against Democrats?
Unless there is an abnormal number of Orthodox Jews in the district this seems like a non-issue for most voters.

Because the leadership of the party is still stuck in 1980.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #358 on: October 17, 2016, 10:18:49 pm »

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/788215640721022976

Clinton leads Trump 44-36 in Minnesota's 2nd Cong. District according to SurveyUSA. Obama won this district by .1%.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #359 on: October 17, 2016, 10:50:08 pm »

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/788225427684880388

Quote
Sr GOP source: 7 SEN races w/in margin of error, per internals, w widespread Trump collapse. Several GOPers running 10-15 pts ahead of DT.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #360 on: October 17, 2016, 10:51:34 pm »

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/788225427684880388

Quote
Sr GOP source: 7 SEN races w/in margin of error, per internals, w widespread Trump collapse. Several GOPers running 10-15 pts ahead of DT.
I doubt that many will split tickets.

Oh jesus, it could be Armageddon.
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gf20202
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« Reply #361 on: October 17, 2016, 10:54:14 pm »

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/788225427684880388

Quote
Sr GOP source: 7 SEN races w/in margin of error, per internals, w widespread Trump collapse. Several GOPers running 10-15 pts ahead of DT.
Josh K is a pretty pathetic GOP-spinning mouthpiece. They are likely in worse shape than that in those senate races.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #362 on: October 17, 2016, 10:56:15 pm »

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/788215640721022976

Clinton leads Trump 44-36 in Minnesota's 2nd Cong. District according to SurveyUSA. Obama won this district by .1%.

terrific news!
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #363 on: October 17, 2016, 10:57:07 pm »

He added another tweet:

Quote
Sr GOP source: 7 SEN races w/in margin of error, per internals, w widespread Trump collapse. Several GOPers running 10-15 pts ahead of DT.

The 7th race is Florida, by the way, not Wisconsin (thank god).
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #364 on: October 17, 2016, 10:57:49 pm »

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/788225427684880388

Quote
Sr GOP source: 7 SEN races w/in margin of error, per internals, w widespread Trump collapse. Several GOPers running 10-15 pts ahead of DT.
Josh K is a pretty pathetic GOP-spinning mouthpiece. They are likely in worse shape than that in those senate races.

Yeah, if this is what the GOP is spinning through sympathetic "journalists" then they really may be collapsing across the board.
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gf20202
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« Reply #365 on: October 17, 2016, 11:03:59 pm »

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/788225427684880388

Quote
Sr GOP source: 7 SEN races w/in margin of error, per internals, w widespread Trump collapse. Several GOPers running 10-15 pts ahead of DT.
Josh K is a pretty pathetic GOP-spinning mouthpiece. They are likely in worse shape than that in those senate races.

Yeah, if this is what the GOP is spinning through sympathetic "journalists" then they really may be collapsing across the board.

This was his next tweet:

Quote
Of the seven races, GOP candidate holds leads betw 1-3 pts in six races... Heck down a couple in NV.

He clarified that the Wisconsin isn't among those seven, which means FL is in margin of error? Don't believe it but it would have to be that.

Bayh losing isn't losing currently in IN. The GOP's internal polling is garbage if they believe that.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2016, 11:09:32 pm by gf20202 »Logged
Vosem
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« Reply #366 on: October 17, 2016, 11:08:55 pm »

Per piecing together Kraushaar's replies to people, Republicans lead in 6 of the 7 races within the margin of error; the one where the Democrat leads is NV. The 6 races in question seem to be PA/NH/NC/IN/MO/FL; he repudiates someone suggesting Wisconsin saying that's not within the margin of error. Presumably Democrats are therefore pretty safely up in Illinois and Wisconsin.

So...Republican internal polling is suggesting that if the election were right now, the Democrats would gain only 2 Senate seats (IL/WI), but that with even a small push they would gain 8 (those two, plus MO/IN/NC/PA/NH/FL; he notes that the Democrats are putting up the weakest effort in FL, so presumably it would be last to flip). That would be enough to make anyone panicky.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #367 on: October 17, 2016, 11:09:41 pm »

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/788225427684880388

Quote
Sr GOP source: 7 SEN races w/in margin of error, per internals, w widespread Trump collapse. Several GOPers running 10-15 pts ahead of DT.
Josh K is a pretty pathetic GOP-spinning mouthpiece. They are likely in worse shape than that in those senate races.

Yeah, if this is what the GOP is spinning through sympathetic "journalists" then they really may be collapsing across the board.

This was his next tweet:

Quote
Of the seven races, GOP candidate holds leads betw 1-3 pts in six races... Heck down a couple in NV.

The Polls show Dems currently trailing in six of the seven toss-up senate races? If Rubio-Murphy isn't in the margin of error, that means that the GOP is claiming to have polling have Johnson up in WI and Bayh losing in IN. It's garbage.

As was already mentioned Josh spins as hard as possible for the GOP. Republicans tell him stuff sometimes because they know he'll uncritically repeat verbatim anything he hears from Republicans. This is basically a NSCC press release. The only notable thing is them admitting Trump is collapsing. The comments about the Senate races I take with a grain of salt.
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gf20202
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« Reply #368 on: October 17, 2016, 11:13:34 pm »

Per piecing together Kraushaar's replies to people, Republicans lead in 6 of the 7 races within the margin of error; the one where the Democrat leads is NV. The 6 races in question seem to be PA/NH/NC/IN/MO/FL; he repudiates someone suggesting Wisconsin saying that's not within the margin of error. Presumably Democrats are therefore pretty safely up in Illinois and Wisconsin.

So...Republican internal polling is suggesting that if the election were right now, the Democrats would gain only 2 Senate seats (IL/WI), but that with even a small push they would gain 8 (those two, plus MO/IN/NC/PA/NH/FL; he notes that the Democrats are putting up the weakest effort in FL, so presumably it would be last to flip). That would be enough to make anyone panicky.
You have it right apparently. He said it was FL and not WI, which makes zero sense. How is Rubio only up 3 in FL and yet Bayh is losing in IN? Just proves GOP internal polling is crap if that's the case.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #369 on: October 18, 2016, 01:19:07 am »

Yeah looks like the GOP is operating on really bad internals all over again. I guess they didn't learn anything from 2012.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #370 on: October 18, 2016, 06:50:52 am »

I love it how the right leaning writers on twitter are retweeting this like its a good thing, when really it shows that if this election behaves the same way it has every cycle since 2006 the Democrats will probably pick up 6-8 seats. Especially with the Clinton camp reconfiguring their message to emphasize the importance of electing Democrats down ballot.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #371 on: October 18, 2016, 07:00:00 am »

He added another tweet:

Quote
Sr GOP source: 7 SEN races w/in margin of error, per internals, w widespread Trump collapse. Several GOPers running 10-15 pts ahead of DT.

The 7th race is Florida, by the way, not Wisconsin (thank god).

Img
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Gass3268
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« Reply #372 on: October 18, 2016, 07:01:06 am »

He added another tweet:

Quote
Sr GOP source: 7 SEN races w/in margin of error, per internals, w widespread Trump collapse. Several GOPers running 10-15 pts ahead of DT.

The 7th race is Florida, by the way, not Wisconsin (thank god).

Img


Someone should give him some water.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #373 on: October 18, 2016, 07:41:54 am »

If their polls are showing huge margins for Hillary Clinton and their Republican Senate candidates within the MoE, they're assuming a large number of Republicans disaffected with Trump will show up on Election Day anyway to cast a vote against Trump and then vote R downballot. A questionable assumption.
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Torie
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« Reply #374 on: October 18, 2016, 07:48:53 am »

If their polls are showing huge margins for Hillary Clinton and their Republican Senate candidates within the MoE, they're assuming a large number of Republicans disaffected with Trump will show up on Election Day anyway to cast a vote against Trump and then vote R downballot. A questionable assumption.

Does this theory impress you at all? So far, I see little evidence myself of down ballot damage to Pubs arising from the Trump tanking.
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