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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 61176 times)
Ebsy
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« Reply #400 on: October 18, 2016, 06:35:15 pm »

Clinton +10 in John Mica's district, FL-07. Mica's challenger is ahead by 3. The district was tied in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328067269/FL-07-GSG-and-Lester-for-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +4 in PA-16, which Obama lost by 6 in 2012. Open seat, the GOP candidate is 3 ahead of the Dem candidate. Possible pickup opportunity.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328056923/PA-16-GBA-for-Christina-Hartman-Oct-2016
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Gass3268
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« Reply #401 on: October 18, 2016, 06:41:14 pm »

Clinton +10 in John Mica's district, FL-07. Mica's challenger is ahead by 3. The district was tied in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328067269/FL-07-GSG-and-Lester-for-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +4 in PA-16, which Obama lost by 6 in 2012. Open seat, the GOP candidate is 3 ahead of the Dem candidate. Possible pickup opportunity.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328056923/PA-16-GBA-for-Christina-Hartman-Oct-2016

If Clinton is up 10 in FL-07, that means Seminole County has gone Democratic, right?
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dspNY
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« Reply #402 on: October 18, 2016, 06:42:04 pm »
« Edited: October 18, 2016, 06:44:29 pm by dspNY »

Clinton +10 in John Mica's district, FL-07. Mica's challenger is ahead by 3. The district was tied in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328067269/FL-07-GSG-and-Lester-for-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +4 in PA-16, which Obama lost by 6 in 2012. Open seat, the GOP candidate is 3 ahead of the Dem candidate. Possible pickup opportunity.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328056923/PA-16-GBA-for-Christina-Hartman-Oct-2016

Even with the 5 point rule these polls indicate strength in suburban areas for Clinton. PA-16 is an R+6 district and if it is going Dem, Clinton is up by at least 10-12 points in PA. That district has a lot of rural areas in the T which you'd expect would be teabagger country
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dspNY
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« Reply #403 on: October 18, 2016, 06:43:48 pm »

Clinton +10 in John Mica's district, FL-07. Mica's challenger is ahead by 3. The district was tied in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328067269/FL-07-GSG-and-Lester-for-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +4 in PA-16, which Obama lost by 6 in 2012. Open seat, the GOP candidate is 3 ahead of the Dem candidate. Possible pickup opportunity.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328056923/PA-16-GBA-for-Christina-Hartman-Oct-2016

If Clinton is up 10 in FL-07, that means Seminole County has gone Democratic, right?

Yes. With the 5 point rule it is barely Republican and Trump is down 4-5 points statewide
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #404 on: October 18, 2016, 06:44:50 pm »

Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.

Anecdotally: I voted after work today in Forsyth County.  There was no wait, and perhaps a third of the voting machines were occupied.  The poll worker I asked said they'd had a steady stream, but it never got busy enough to require a line.  For comparison, when I voted early in 2012 there was a very long backup (same county, but different location).

Well that's quite interesting. If Trump can't hold Romney's margins in the Atlanta exurbs, then he's probably at risk of losing Gwinnett and maybe Cobb County. There are enough potential Clinton voters to turn the state blue, but it's pretty late in the game to a make serious effort to make it happen.

I think they should have been here earlier, but it just feels on the ground like she can win. I'm thinking Cherokee/Gwinnett will lose a few GOP voters (college educated/evangelical), but he's going to lose a horrific amount of support in Rubio country (Fulton/Dekalb). Even though that's not his base, it's a lot of votes. Lots of moderate Republicans I know refuse to vote for Trump.

http://elections.sos.ga.gov/Elections/voterabsenteefile.do
Kind of hard to use since they split the counties, but...below are the vote in person numbers as well as D-R margin and vote count. I'll try and figure out how to make a script to combine them to be easily pivotable, but for now, just went into each file...

(Obama-romney) 2012 votes

7.0K in Fulton (64-35) 390K
7.6K in Dekalb (78-21) 305K
1.6K in Gwinnett (45-54) 295K
3.7K in Cobb (43-55) 309K
3.5K in Forsyth (18-81) 82K

It does seem like Forsyth is punching above its weight relative to its low population.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #405 on: October 18, 2016, 07:09:31 pm »

Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.

Anecdotally: I voted after work today in Forsyth County.  There was no wait, and perhaps a third of the voting machines were occupied.  The poll worker I asked said they'd had a steady stream, but it never got busy enough to require a line.  For comparison, when I voted early in 2012 there was a very long backup (same county, but different location).

Well that's quite interesting. If Trump can't hold Romney's margins in the Atlanta exurbs, then he's probably at risk of losing Gwinnett and maybe Cobb County. There are enough potential Clinton voters to turn the state blue, but it's pretty late in the game to a make serious effort to make it happen.

I think they should have been here earlier, but it just feels on the ground like she can win. I'm thinking Cherokee/Gwinnett will lose a few GOP voters (college educated/evangelical), but he's going to lose a horrific amount of support in Rubio country (Fulton/Dekalb). Even though that's not his base, it's a lot of votes. Lots of moderate Republicans I know refuse to vote for Trump.

http://elections.sos.ga.gov/Elections/voterabsenteefile.do
Kind of hard to use since they split the counties, but...below are the vote in person numbers as well as D-R margin and vote count. I'll try and figure out how to make a script to combine them to be easily pivotable, but for now, just went into each file...

(Obama-romney) 2012 votes

7.0K in Fulton (64-35) 390K
7.6K in Dekalb (78-21) 305K
1.6K in Gwinnett (45-54) 295K
3.7K in Cobb (43-55) 309K
3.5K in Forsyth (18-81) 82K

It does seem like Forsyth is punching above its weight relative to its low population.

One factor is probably that Forsyth makes it very easy to vote early.  There are five early voting locations (compared to one in Gwinnett, which has four times the population) with extensive hours: 8am-6pm Mon-Fri this week and next week, then 7am-7pm on Saturday the 29th and the following Mon-Fri.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #406 on: October 18, 2016, 07:33:36 pm »

It's a disgrace what they're doing in Gwinnett, just 1 in Lawrenceville for the whole county (not surprisingly, most of the early voters are from Lawrenceville).

http://www.tomnash.eu/how-to-combine-multiple-csv-files-into-one-using-cmd/
So I figured out how to combine the CSV files and did some analysis on it. Simply, ballot status A (accepted), comparing 2016 vote totals to 2012 final count. Obviously simple analysis that doesn't take into consideration of current voter registration.

Fulton is at 12.6K (now that I counted accepted mail), 3.2% of 2012
Dekalb at 4%
Cobb at 3.3%
Gwinnett at 2.3% (disastrous 1 voting site)
Forsyth is 6%
Clayton's at 3.4%
Muscogee is 4.1%
Columbia is 4.8%
Henry is 3.1%
Hall is 4.5%
Cherokee is 2.8%.

Overall, IF access is there, Republicans are doing better (Forsyth). Otherwise kind of mixed.

Also, I took each county's 2012 D/R margin, applied it to current county vote totals and came up with Trump 55% Clinton 44%. Hopefully as in person early voting ramps up this gap closes.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #407 on: October 18, 2016, 07:46:03 pm »

It's a disgrace what they're doing in Gwinnett, just 1 in Lawrenceville for the whole county (not surprisingly, most of the early voters are from Lawrenceville).

http://www.tomnash.eu/how-to-combine-multiple-csv-files-into-one-using-cmd/
So I figured out how to combine the CSV files and did some analysis on it. Simply, ballot status A (accepted), comparing 2016 vote totals to 2012 final count. Obviously simple analysis that doesn't take into consideration of current voter registration.

Fulton is at 12.6K (now that I counted accepted mail), 3.2% of 2012
Dekalb at 4%
Cobb at 3.3%
Gwinnett at 2.3% (disastrous 1 voting site)
Forsyth is 6%
Clayton's at 3.4%
Muscogee is 4.1%
Columbia is 4.8%
Henry is 3.1%
Hall is 4.5%
Cherokee is 2.8%.

Overall, IF access is there, Republicans are doing better (Forsyth). Otherwise kind of mixed.

Also, I took each county's 2012 D/R margin, applied it to current county vote totals and came up with Trump 55% Clinton 44%. Hopefully as in person early voting ramps up this gap closes.

I think error will creep in because of the bolded part, although I confess I don't know what else you could do that's better.  I expect the proportions to change significantly in some counties, partly due to demographic shifts and party due to Trump's unique (non-)appeal to certain groups.  Forsyth was 80/18 for Romney, but I really doubt that Trump will hit 70 here.
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #408 on: October 18, 2016, 08:03:21 pm »

Yes, Forsyth is very willing to make early voting easy, because, you know...all the 'right' people live there. It also has very high turnout and voter registration rates overall (the latter is the highest in the state as a share of CVAP, at over 90%), so it'd only make sense that its early voting numbers are huge. Early voting is so predominant now that the difference between early and election day groups usually isn't very meaningful in counties like Forsyth.

The way it usually goes is that the first few days of early voting appear to be as Republican (or even more so) than the state as a whole, but Democrats gradually increase their share of the vote day-by-day. By the end of early voting, the early vote demographics make things look better than they'll actually be once ED votes are counted.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #409 on: October 19, 2016, 08:02:53 am »

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article109052487.html

Clinton up 30 in Miami-Dade (58-28), 6 points wider than in 2012 (62-38).

Clinton’s spread over Trump is “the most that any Democrat has ever gotten, dating back to the 2000 election
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dspNY
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« Reply #410 on: October 19, 2016, 08:09:13 am »

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article109052487.html

Clinton up 30 in Miami-Dade (58-28), 6 points wider than in 2012 (62-38).

Clinton’s spread over Trump is “the most that any Democrat has ever gotten, dating back to the 2000 election

That would be a swing of almost 60K voters to the Democrats, since around 880K voted in Miami-Dade in 2012
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #411 on: October 19, 2016, 09:01:41 am »
« Edited: October 19, 2016, 09:11:59 am by HillOfANight »

https://twitter.com/jhagner/status/788739385810362372
http://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/press-releases/new-hmp-polls-democrats-on-offense-across-the-country

Clarity Campaign Labs polls not sure if they're posted here yet. I compared it to here http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections

CA-10: Clinton 41 Trump 40 (Obama 51 Romney 47)
IL-10: Clinton 53 Trump 30 (Obama 58 Romney 41)
KS-03: Clinton 44 35 (Obama 44 Romney 54)
ME-02: Clinton 39 Trump 39 (Obama 53 Romney 44)
MN-03: Clinton 47 Trump 28 (Obama 50 Romney 49)
MN-08: Clinton 38 Trump 39 (Obama 52 Romney 46)

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Ozymandias
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« Reply #412 on: October 19, 2016, 09:09:19 am »


With 2012 results (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections)

CA-10: Clinton 41 Trump 40 // OBAMA +3.6
IL-10: Clinton 53 Trump 30 // OBAMA +16.4
KS-03: Clinton 44 35 (48-38 2 way) // ROMNEY +9.5
ME-02: Clinton 39 Trump 39 // OBAMA +8.5
MN-03: Clinton 47 Trump 28 // OBAMA +0.8
MN-08: Clinton 38 Trump 39 // OBAMA +5.5
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« Reply #413 on: October 19, 2016, 09:11:48 am »

Confirms what I suspect, that Trump may win MN-8 but be more than offset by Democratic gains in MN-2,3
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #414 on: October 19, 2016, 09:31:08 am »

https://twitter.com/jhagner/status/788739385810362372
http://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/press-releases/new-hmp-polls-democrats-on-offense-across-the-country

Clarity Campaign Labs polls not sure if they're posted here yet. I compared it to here http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections

CA-10: Clinton 41 Trump 40 (Obama 51 Romney 47)
IL-10: Clinton 53 Trump 30 (Obama 58 Romney 41)
KS-03: Clinton 44 35 (Obama 44 Romney 54)
ME-02: Clinton 39 Trump 39 (Obama 53 Romney 44)
MN-03: Clinton 47 Trump 28 (Obama 50 Romney 49)
MN-08: Clinton 38 Trump 39 (Obama 52 Romney 46)


For readability

CA-10: Clinton +1 / Obama +4
IL-10: Clinton +23/ Obama +17
KS-03: Clinton +9/ Romney +10
ME-02: Tie / Obama +9
MN-03: Clinton +19/ Obama +1
MN-08: Trump +1/ Obama+6
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« Reply #415 on: October 19, 2016, 09:25:21 pm »

In an Democratic internal poll conducted between October 10-11 of ME-2, Trump and Clinton are tied at 39%, 14% for other and 7% undecided.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328156011/ME-02-Clarity-Campaign-Labs-for-House-Majority-PAC-Oct-2016
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Ebsy
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« Reply #416 on: October 20, 2016, 02:42:39 pm »

Clinton +5 in CA-25, which Obama lost by 2 in 2012. Steven Knight's challenger is only 2 points behind.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328309922/CA-25-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016
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« Reply #417 on: October 20, 2016, 02:46:37 pm »

All these internals are showing huge swings to Clinton in California. She could end up winning the state by 30 points.
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« Reply #418 on: October 20, 2016, 03:02:23 pm »

All these internals are showing huge swings to Clinton in California. She could end up winning the state by 30 points.

Wouldn't doubt that at all. Shes gonna rack up huge margins up and down the state
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #419 on: October 20, 2016, 04:11:52 pm »

I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #420 on: October 20, 2016, 04:15:16 pm »

If I'm seeing a pattern here, internal polls seem to be even more optimistic about Hillary's chances.
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dspNY
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« Reply #421 on: October 20, 2016, 04:16:24 pm »

I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

Obama won it by 11, so Clinton still needs to pick up her pace here, considering the 5 point rule
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #422 on: October 20, 2016, 04:18:10 pm »

I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

Obama won it by 11, so Clinton still needs to pick up her pace here, considering the 5 point rule

Gotcha. Do you have a subscription with Dave's atlas or did you get the CD info another way? I couldn't find it with brief google-fu.
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dspNY
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« Reply #423 on: October 20, 2016, 04:20:06 pm »

I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

Obama won it by 11, so Clinton still needs to pick up her pace here, considering the 5 point rule

Gotcha. Do you have a subscription with Dave's atlas or did you get the CD info another way? I couldn't find it with brief google-fu.

Wikipedia, Nevada's 4th CD. Easy
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« Reply #424 on: October 20, 2016, 04:21:25 pm »

I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

Obama won it by 11, so Clinton still needs to pick up her pace here, considering the 5 point rule

Gotcha. Do you have a subscription with Dave's atlas or did you get the CD info another way? I couldn't find it with brief google-fu.

My Google-fu is better than your Google-fu.  The first thing I found after Googling 'presidential vote by congressional district' was this:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections
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