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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 63945 times)
Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #400 on: October 19, 2016, 09:25:21 pm »

In an Democratic internal poll conducted between October 10-11 of ME-2, Trump and Clinton are tied at 39%, 14% for other and 7% undecided.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328156011/ME-02-Clarity-Campaign-Labs-for-House-Majority-PAC-Oct-2016
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Ebsy
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« Reply #401 on: October 20, 2016, 02:42:39 pm »

Clinton +5 in CA-25, which Obama lost by 2 in 2012. Steven Knight's challenger is only 2 points behind.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328309922/CA-25-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #402 on: October 20, 2016, 02:46:37 pm »

All these internals are showing huge swings to Clinton in California. She could end up winning the state by 30 points.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #403 on: October 20, 2016, 03:02:23 pm »

All these internals are showing huge swings to Clinton in California. She could end up winning the state by 30 points.

Wouldn't doubt that at all. Shes gonna rack up huge margins up and down the state
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #404 on: October 20, 2016, 04:11:52 pm »

I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #405 on: October 20, 2016, 04:15:16 pm »

If I'm seeing a pattern here, internal polls seem to be even more optimistic about Hillary's chances.
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dspNY
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« Reply #406 on: October 20, 2016, 04:16:24 pm »

I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

Obama won it by 11, so Clinton still needs to pick up her pace here, considering the 5 point rule
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #407 on: October 20, 2016, 04:18:10 pm »

I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

Obama won it by 11, so Clinton still needs to pick up her pace here, considering the 5 point rule

Gotcha. Do you have a subscription with Dave's atlas or did you get the CD info another way? I couldn't find it with brief google-fu.
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dspNY
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« Reply #408 on: October 20, 2016, 04:20:06 pm »

I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

Obama won it by 11, so Clinton still needs to pick up her pace here, considering the 5 point rule

Gotcha. Do you have a subscription with Dave's atlas or did you get the CD info another way? I couldn't find it with brief google-fu.

Wikipedia, Nevada's 4th CD. Easy
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cinyc
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« Reply #409 on: October 20, 2016, 04:21:25 pm »

I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

Obama won it by 11, so Clinton still needs to pick up her pace here, considering the 5 point rule

Gotcha. Do you have a subscription with Dave's atlas or did you get the CD info another way? I couldn't find it with brief google-fu.

My Google-fu is better than your Google-fu.  The first thing I found after Googling 'presidential vote by congressional district' was this:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #410 on: October 20, 2016, 04:21:48 pm »

I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

Obama won it by 11, so Clinton still needs to pick up her pace here, considering the 5 point rule

Gotcha. Do you have a subscription with Dave's atlas or did you get the CD info another way? I couldn't find it with brief google-fu.

Wikipedia, Nevada's 4th CD. Easy

Ha! That's pretty funny. Looks like I went over-specific in my hunt. Oh well, thanks a bunch!
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #411 on: October 21, 2016, 07:54:52 pm »

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/early-voting-women-battleground-states-230176
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Basically confirming the recent Georgia polls we've seen.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #412 on: October 21, 2016, 08:21:56 pm »

Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html
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swf541
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« Reply #413 on: October 21, 2016, 08:30:12 pm »


Yea, there is a reason Dems arent going into Georgia like Arizona
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #414 on: October 21, 2016, 08:31:55 pm »

Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, said Hillary has "100%" chance of winning. Democrat internals are very data-analytic so their words should be weighted heavily even if biased.
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Alcon
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« Reply #415 on: October 21, 2016, 08:33:38 pm »

Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, said Hillary has "100%" chance of winning. Democrat internals are very data-analytic so their words should be weighted heavily even if biased.

I don't think anyone should be taken seriously when they project a 100% chance to win a swing state.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #416 on: October 21, 2016, 08:34:40 pm »

Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, said Hillary has "100%" chance of winning. Democrat internals are very data-analytic so their words should be weighted heavily even if biased.

I don't think anyone should be taken seriously when they project a 100% chance to win a swing state.

He isn't talking about a swing state, he talking about the election in general.
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Alcon
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« Reply #417 on: October 21, 2016, 08:38:09 pm »

Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, said Hillary has "100%" chance of winning. Democrat internals are very data-analytic so their words should be weighted heavily even if biased.

I don't think anyone should be taken seriously when they project a 100% chance to win a swing state.

He isn't talking about a swing state, he talking about the election in general.

Fair enough, but even if he's not talking about Florida, 100% still seems like hyperbole to me.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #418 on: October 21, 2016, 08:40:26 pm »

Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, said Hillary has "100%" chance of winning. Democrat internals are very data-analytic so their words should be weighted heavily even if biased.

I don't think anyone should be taken seriously when they project a 100% chance to win a swing state.
I don't think anything a partisan on either side of the aisle should be taken seriously when it comes to electoral predictions. Of course their candidate is going to win.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #419 on: October 21, 2016, 10:15:04 pm »

Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

Fun fact: Steve Schale is Florida Man
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #420 on: October 22, 2016, 09:30:05 am »

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #421 on: October 22, 2016, 09:39:27 am »

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Please please please let this be true.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #422 on: October 22, 2016, 09:40:52 am »

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Please please please let this be true.

So, if this is true, we are looking at a 1988 margin?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #423 on: October 22, 2016, 09:41:31 am »

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Holcomb and Young are so done if this is true.
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Devils30
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« Reply #424 on: October 22, 2016, 09:57:34 am »

Indiana is an elastic state so it's not shocking to see it move in the final weeks more than Georgia.
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