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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 60820 times)
Speed of Sound
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« Reply #425 on: October 20, 2016, 04:21:48 pm »

I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

Obama won it by 11, so Clinton still needs to pick up her pace here, considering the 5 point rule

Gotcha. Do you have a subscription with Dave's atlas or did you get the CD info another way? I couldn't find it with brief google-fu.

Wikipedia, Nevada's 4th CD. Easy

Ha! That's pretty funny. Looks like I went over-specific in my hunt. Oh well, thanks a bunch!
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #426 on: October 21, 2016, 07:54:52 pm »

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/early-voting-women-battleground-states-230176
Quote
Randy Evans, a Republican National committeeman from Georgia, said hes skeptical that the debate was truly a flashpoint in the race for Clinton. He said early vote numbers indicate a higher proportion of votes from rural areas than four years ago, with lighter numbers in urban areas, suggesting a potential tilt toward Trump.

Im not gonna pretend, with this electorate, to have the crystal ball, he said, citing internal polls hes seen giving Trump a 4- to 6-point edge.

Basically confirming the recent Georgia polls we've seen.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #427 on: October 21, 2016, 08:21:56 pm »

Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html
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swf541
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« Reply #428 on: October 21, 2016, 08:30:12 pm »

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/early-voting-women-battleground-states-230176
Quote
Randy Evans, a Republican National committeeman from Georgia, said hes skeptical that the debate was truly a flashpoint in the race for Clinton. He said early vote numbers indicate a higher proportion of votes from rural areas than four years ago, with lighter numbers in urban areas, suggesting a potential tilt toward Trump.

Im not gonna pretend, with this electorate, to have the crystal ball, he said, citing internal polls hes seen giving Trump a 4- to 6-point edge.

Basically confirming the recent Georgia polls we've seen.

Yea, there is a reason Dems arent going into Georgia like Arizona
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #429 on: October 21, 2016, 08:31:55 pm »

Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, said Hillary has "100%" chance of winning. Democrat internals are very data-analytic so their words should be weighted heavily even if biased.
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Alcon
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« Reply #430 on: October 21, 2016, 08:33:38 pm »

Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, said Hillary has "100%" chance of winning. Democrat internals are very data-analytic so their words should be weighted heavily even if biased.

I don't think anyone should be taken seriously when they project a 100% chance to win a swing state.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #431 on: October 21, 2016, 08:34:40 pm »

Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, said Hillary has "100%" chance of winning. Democrat internals are very data-analytic so their words should be weighted heavily even if biased.

I don't think anyone should be taken seriously when they project a 100% chance to win a swing state.

He isn't talking about a swing state, he talking about the election in general.
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Alcon
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« Reply #432 on: October 21, 2016, 08:38:09 pm »

Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, said Hillary has "100%" chance of winning. Democrat internals are very data-analytic so their words should be weighted heavily even if biased.

I don't think anyone should be taken seriously when they project a 100% chance to win a swing state.

He isn't talking about a swing state, he talking about the election in general.

Fair enough, but even if he's not talking about Florida, 100% still seems like hyperbole to me.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #433 on: October 21, 2016, 08:40:26 pm »

Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, said Hillary has "100%" chance of winning. Democrat internals are very data-analytic so their words should be weighted heavily even if biased.

I don't think anyone should be taken seriously when they project a 100% chance to win a swing state.
I don't think anything a partisan on either side of the aisle should be taken seriously when it comes to electoral predictions. Of course their candidate is going to win.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #434 on: October 21, 2016, 10:15:04 pm »

Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

Fun fact: Steve Schale is Florida Man
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #435 on: October 22, 2016, 09:30:05 am »

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"
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Castro
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« Reply #436 on: October 22, 2016, 09:39:27 am »

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Please please please let this be true.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #437 on: October 22, 2016, 09:40:52 am »

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Please please please let this be true.

So, if this is true, we are looking at a 1988 margin?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #438 on: October 22, 2016, 09:41:31 am »

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Holcomb and Young are so done if this is true.
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Devils30
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« Reply #439 on: October 22, 2016, 09:57:34 am »

Indiana is an elastic state so it's not shocking to see it move in the final weeks more than Georgia.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #440 on: October 22, 2016, 09:59:22 am »

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Holcomb and Young are so done if this is true.

would be hard to see toomey and ayotte overcome this drag on the top of the ticket as well
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #441 on: October 22, 2016, 10:00:32 am »

Don't buy that kind of internal margin. Way more GOP opportunists would have run for the hills. That margin could happen Akin style, but I don't believe that the GOP sees it right now.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #442 on: October 22, 2016, 10:01:32 am »

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Holcomb and Young are so done if this is true.

would be hard to see toomey and ayotte overcome this drag on the top of the ticket as well
With Heck not supporting Drumpf and Ayotte and Toomey swimming upstream, does this mean SML Schumer?
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Castro
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« Reply #443 on: October 22, 2016, 10:07:56 am »

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Holcomb and Young are so done if this is true.

would be hard to see toomey and ayotte overcome this drag on the top of the ticket as well
With Heck not supporting Drumpf and Ayotte and Toomey swimming upstream, does this mean SML Schumer?

Yes.
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #444 on: October 22, 2016, 10:18:16 am »

I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #445 on: October 22, 2016, 10:21:42 am »

i think, they want to motivate their voters to do something against APOCALYPSE.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #446 on: October 22, 2016, 10:22:49 am »

I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.

I think they are trying to get the warning out that things are collapsing. Look at past results, lots of time the dam doesn't break out until the last couple weeks.
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Castro
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« Reply #447 on: October 22, 2016, 10:24:48 am »

I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.

From what I understand about the psychology of polling, you want your party members to think things are close but not doomed. Too large a deficit and people could get demoralized.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #448 on: October 22, 2016, 11:09:46 am »

I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.

They also want to retain the Senate and the House. Leaking these type of numbers don't help that cause.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #449 on: October 22, 2016, 11:35:50 am »

I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.

They also want to retain the Senate and the House. Leaking these type of numbers don't help that cause.

Maybe not.  It might be a subtle way of distancing themselves from Trump without explicitly disavowing him, which would cause problems with his base.  This sends the message that Trump is going to lose, with the implicit point that GOP voters need to stick with their down-ballot candidates to act as a check on President Clinton.
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