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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 60559 times)
OneJ
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« Reply #450 on: October 22, 2016, 11:36:18 am »

Oh this is getting good!

Twitter Link: https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/789834943304118273
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Seriously?
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« Reply #451 on: October 22, 2016, 12:14:14 pm »

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"
John Harwood. You may as well be quoting Baghdad Bob. Complete utter DNC shill. Wikileaks proved it.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #452 on: October 22, 2016, 12:17:31 pm »


John Harwood. You may as well be quoting Baghdad Bob. Complete utter DNC shill. Wikileaks proved it.

just spreading the same quotes shared by more rep-friendly journalists.

seems more like a tactical message from rep-establishment.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #453 on: October 22, 2016, 12:27:10 pm »

I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.

They also want to retain the Senate and the House. Leaking these type of numbers don't help that cause.

Maybe not.  It might be a subtle way of distancing themselves from Trump without explicitly disavowing him, which would cause problems with his base.  This sends the message that Trump is going to lose, with the implicit point that GOP voters need to stick with their down-ballot candidates to act as a check on President Clinton.

I would agree with this if the numbers they were providing weren't so dire. I mean they are saying that Trump is down double digits in NH and PA, it almost impossible for Ayotte and Toomey to overcome that.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #454 on: October 22, 2016, 12:49:27 pm »

Quote
Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  6m6 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL
Steve Schale Retweeted John Harwood
I've seen some HRC/DJT numbers in Florida bellwether down ballot districts that are shocking. Margins that are hard to get head around.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #455 on: October 22, 2016, 12:52:57 pm »

Quote
Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  6m6 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL
Steve Schale Retweeted John Harwood
I've seen some HRC/DJT numbers in Florida bellwether down ballot districts that are shocking. Margins that are hard to get head around.

Another tweet in response to Murphy's chances to win:

Quote
Steve Schale
‏@steveschale
@trowaman @DemFromCT @JohnJHarwood if he can find some cash, he can win. DSCC pulling out is mindnumbing
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #456 on: October 22, 2016, 12:54:49 pm »

margins favorable to Hillary, i suppose?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #457 on: October 22, 2016, 12:58:37 pm »

margins favorable to Hillary, i suppose?

That's what he said in a later reply, but he refused to give details when asked.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #458 on: October 22, 2016, 12:58:55 pm »

Quote
Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  6m6 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL
Steve Schale Retweeted John Harwood
I've seen some HRC/DJT numbers in Florida bellwether down ballot districts that are shocking. Margins that are hard to get head around.

You'd think at least one Florida poll would've captured this if it was true. Clinton up 4 is definitely great for a state like Florida, but from the hyperbolic tone of that tweet you'd think it meant she was up double digits there or something. Unless said swing districts are being offset in safe districts.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #459 on: October 22, 2016, 01:00:31 pm »

Quote
Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  6m6 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL
Steve Schale Retweeted John Harwood
I've seen some HRC/DJT numbers in Florida bellwether down ballot districts that are shocking. Margins that are hard to get head around.

You'd think at least one Florida poll would've captured this if it was true. Clinton up 4 is definitely great for a state like Florida, but from the hyperbolic tone of that tweet you'd think it meant she was up double digits in the state or something. Unless said swing districts are being offset in safe districts.
My guess is that Trump's overperforming in the panhandle? Maybe the swing map is something like the 2014 gubernatorial one.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #460 on: October 22, 2016, 01:06:09 pm »

Quote
Steve Schale
‏@steveschale
@trowaman @DemFromCT @JohnJHarwood if he can find some cash, he can win. DSCC pulling out is mindnumbing


Wasn't Murphy supposed to be a prodigious fundraiser?
I know Florida is a money pit but still he should have enough money to get his message out.
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Hammy
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« Reply #461 on: October 22, 2016, 01:27:30 pm »

Are these GOP internals?
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #462 on: October 22, 2016, 01:29:01 pm »

I'll believe it when I see it, but... wow.
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Holmes
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« Reply #463 on: October 22, 2016, 01:29:13 pm »

Are these GOP internals?

Yeah, I think the New Hampshire one is the one from a week or so ago from the Ayotte campaign? Unless there was another internal with her up 14 in New Hampshire.
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dspNY
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« Reply #464 on: October 22, 2016, 01:52:47 pm »

PPP when asked if Hillary is going to win: Yes
To a Trump supporter: I think November 9th is going to be a rough day for you Gary

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/789821571359711232
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Fargobison
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« Reply #465 on: October 22, 2016, 01:54:28 pm »

Quote
Steve Schale
‏@steveschale
@trowaman @DemFromCT @JohnJHarwood if he can find some cash, he can win. DSCC pulling out is mindnumbing


Wasn't Murphy supposed to be a prodigious fundraiser?
I know Florida is a money pit but still he should have enough money to get his message out.

His dad can always cut him another check.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #466 on: October 22, 2016, 01:58:11 pm »

PPP when asked if Hillary is going to win: Yes
To a Trump supporter: I think November 9th is going to be a rough day for you Gary

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/789821571359711232


I'm happy to hear them say that the undecideds that they are polling feel the same about both candidates, but generally like Obama's direction. That's a good sign.

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/789895377600319488
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #467 on: October 22, 2016, 02:16:50 pm »



I'm happy to hear them say that the undecideds that they are polling feel the same about both candidates, but generally like Obama's direction. That's a good sign.


Yep, and it disproves Bill Mitchell's "Monster Vote" Theory.
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Castro
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« Reply #468 on: October 22, 2016, 06:50:58 pm »

Quote
But it was not until after a video surfaced Oct. 7 showing Trump bragging in a 2005 “Access Hollywood” interview about sexually assaulting women that Clinton’s advisers decided to make late investments.

Private polls reviewed by Clinton strategists showed Democratic Senate and gubernatorial candidates rising in Indiana and Missouri. The Clinton team concluded that in Missouri, for instance, a well-funded ground game to turn out African Americans could be the deciding factor.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/buoyed-by-rising-polls-clinton-shifts-to-a-new-target-the-house-and-senate/2016/10/22/9c717070-97c3-11e6-bb29-bf2701dbe0a3_story.html
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #469 on: October 22, 2016, 07:06:44 pm »

If Indiana is actually that close, they should send Bernie over there.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #470 on: October 22, 2016, 07:23:48 pm »

Quote
Hillary Clinton is pouring $1 million into Indiana and Missouri in the campaign’s final weeks — not because the Democratic presidential nominee thinks she can carry those reliably Republican states, but because she believes that, with an extra push, Democrats can win the Senate and governors’ races there.

It seems like they see the Senate/governor's race have a winnable race, but need extra push in the cities... but they don't expect/plan to win the whole state.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #471 on: October 22, 2016, 09:01:16 pm »

Quote
Steve Schale
‏@steveschale
@trowaman @DemFromCT @JohnJHarwood if he can find some cash, he can win. DSCC pulling out is mindnumbing


Wasn't Murphy supposed to be a prodigious fundraiser?
I know Florida is a money pit but still he should have enough money to get his message out.
Murphy has a good amount of money, but the GOP donors are giving majorly to Rubio. He's still a GOP star.

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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #472 on: October 22, 2016, 09:03:39 pm »

rubio is too important for the party to lose.

if he disappears from the senate, he could be dead for 2020.....not likely.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #473 on: October 23, 2016, 06:31:27 am »


Quote
Steve Schale
‏@steveschale
@trowaman @DemFromCT @JohnJHarwood if he can find some cash, he can win. DSCC pulling out is mindnumbing


Wasn't Murphy supposed to be a prodigious fundraiser?
I know Florida is a money pit but still he should have enough money to get his message out.
Murphy has a good amount of money, but the GOP donors are giving majorly to Rubio. He's still a GOP star.



Of course, a man without principles is always a valuable commodity among the Republican donor class.
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Holmes
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« Reply #474 on: October 23, 2016, 09:34:27 am »
« Edited: October 23, 2016, 09:36:15 am by Holmes »

I think the DSCC wants to defeat Rubio, but wants to get to 50 seats even more, and they see IN, MO and NC as easer paths (outside of the conventional IL/WI/PA/NH). They probably think defeating Rubio would be really expensive, and it would be, but they're downplaying his vulnerability. Oh well.

If anything wins the day for Murphy, it'll be Clinton's ground game  (and Trump's lack of one), but I think the Clinton campaign really doesn't care about getting Clinton/Rubio voters to the polls.
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