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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 63892 times)
psychprofessor
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« Reply #425 on: October 22, 2016, 09:59:22 am »

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Holcomb and Young are so done if this is true.

would be hard to see toomey and ayotte overcome this drag on the top of the ticket as well
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #426 on: October 22, 2016, 10:00:32 am »

Don't buy that kind of internal margin. Way more GOP opportunists would have run for the hills. That margin could happen Akin style, but I don't believe that the GOP sees it right now.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #427 on: October 22, 2016, 10:01:32 am »

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Holcomb and Young are so done if this is true.

would be hard to see toomey and ayotte overcome this drag on the top of the ticket as well
With Heck not supporting Drumpf and Ayotte and Toomey swimming upstream, does this mean SML Schumer?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #428 on: October 22, 2016, 10:07:56 am »

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Holcomb and Young are so done if this is true.

would be hard to see toomey and ayotte overcome this drag on the top of the ticket as well
With Heck not supporting Drumpf and Ayotte and Toomey swimming upstream, does this mean SML Schumer?

Yes.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #429 on: October 22, 2016, 10:18:16 am »

I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #430 on: October 22, 2016, 10:21:42 am »

i think, they want to motivate their voters to do something against APOCALYPSE.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #431 on: October 22, 2016, 10:22:49 am »

I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.

I think they are trying to get the warning out that things are collapsing. Look at past results, lots of time the dam doesn't break out until the last couple weeks.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #432 on: October 22, 2016, 10:24:48 am »

I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.

From what I understand about the psychology of polling, you want your party members to think things are close but not doomed. Too large a deficit and people could get demoralized.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #433 on: October 22, 2016, 11:09:46 am »

I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.

They also want to retain the Senate and the House. Leaking these type of numbers don't help that cause.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #434 on: October 22, 2016, 11:35:50 am »

I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.

They also want to retain the Senate and the House. Leaking these type of numbers don't help that cause.

Maybe not.  It might be a subtle way of distancing themselves from Trump without explicitly disavowing him, which would cause problems with his base.  This sends the message that Trump is going to lose, with the implicit point that GOP voters need to stick with their down-ballot candidates to act as a check on President Clinton.
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Speaker OneJ
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« Reply #435 on: October 22, 2016, 11:36:18 am »

Oh this is getting good!

Twitter Link: https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/789834943304118273
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Seriously?
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« Reply #436 on: October 22, 2016, 12:14:14 pm »

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"
John Harwood. You may as well be quoting Baghdad Bob. Complete utter DNC shill. Wikileaks proved it.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #437 on: October 22, 2016, 12:17:31 pm »


John Harwood. You may as well be quoting Baghdad Bob. Complete utter DNC shill. Wikileaks proved it.

just spreading the same quotes shared by more rep-friendly journalists.

seems more like a tactical message from rep-establishment.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #438 on: October 22, 2016, 12:27:10 pm »

I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.

They also want to retain the Senate and the House. Leaking these type of numbers don't help that cause.

Maybe not.  It might be a subtle way of distancing themselves from Trump without explicitly disavowing him, which would cause problems with his base.  This sends the message that Trump is going to lose, with the implicit point that GOP voters need to stick with their down-ballot candidates to act as a check on President Clinton.

I would agree with this if the numbers they were providing weren't so dire. I mean they are saying that Trump is down double digits in NH and PA, it almost impossible for Ayotte and Toomey to overcome that.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #439 on: October 22, 2016, 12:49:27 pm »

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heatcharger
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« Reply #440 on: October 22, 2016, 12:52:57 pm »


Another tweet in response to Murphy's chances to win:

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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #441 on: October 22, 2016, 12:54:49 pm »

margins favorable to Hillary, i suppose?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #442 on: October 22, 2016, 12:58:37 pm »


That's what he said in a later reply, but he refused to give details when asked.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #443 on: October 22, 2016, 12:58:55 pm »


You'd think at least one Florida poll would've captured this if it was true. Clinton up 4 is definitely great for a state like Florida, but from the hyperbolic tone of that tweet you'd think it meant she was up double digits there or something. Unless said swing districts are being offset in safe districts.
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Skye
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« Reply #444 on: October 22, 2016, 01:00:31 pm »


You'd think at least one Florida poll would've captured this if it was true. Clinton up 4 is definitely great for a state like Florida, but from the hyperbolic tone of that tweet you'd think it meant she was up double digits in the state or something. Unless said swing districts are being offset in safe districts.
My guess is that Trump's overperforming in the panhandle? Maybe the swing map is something like the 2014 gubernatorial one.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #445 on: October 22, 2016, 01:06:09 pm »

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Wasn't Murphy supposed to be a prodigious fundraiser?
I know Florida is a money pit but still he should have enough money to get his message out.
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Hammy
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« Reply #446 on: October 22, 2016, 01:27:30 pm »

Are these GOP internals?
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Mangez des pommes !
Antonio V
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« Reply #447 on: October 22, 2016, 01:29:01 pm »

I'll believe it when I see it, but... wow.
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Holmes
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« Reply #448 on: October 22, 2016, 01:29:13 pm »


Yeah, I think the New Hampshire one is the one from a week or so ago from the Ayotte campaign? Unless there was another internal with her up 14 in New Hampshire.
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dspNY
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« Reply #449 on: October 22, 2016, 01:52:47 pm »

PPP when asked if Hillary is going to win: Yes
To a Trump supporter: I think November 9th is going to be a rough day for you Gary

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/789821571359711232
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