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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 63155 times)
Fargobison
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« Reply #450 on: October 22, 2016, 01:54:28 pm »

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Wasn't Murphy supposed to be a prodigious fundraiser?
I know Florida is a money pit but still he should have enough money to get his message out.

His dad can always cut him another check.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #451 on: October 22, 2016, 01:58:11 pm »

PPP when asked if Hillary is going to win: Yes
To a Trump supporter: I think November 9th is going to be a rough day for you Gary

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/789821571359711232


I'm happy to hear them say that the undecideds that they are polling feel the same about both candidates, but generally like Obama's direction. That's a good sign.

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/789895377600319488
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #452 on: October 22, 2016, 02:16:50 pm »



I'm happy to hear them say that the undecideds that they are polling feel the same about both candidates, but generally like Obama's direction. That's a good sign.


Yep, and it disproves Bill Mitchell's "Monster Vote" Theory.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #453 on: October 22, 2016, 06:50:58 pm »

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/buoyed-by-rising-polls-clinton-shifts-to-a-new-target-the-house-and-senate/2016/10/22/9c717070-97c3-11e6-bb29-bf2701dbe0a3_story.html
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #454 on: October 22, 2016, 07:06:44 pm »

If Indiana is actually that close, they should send Bernie over there.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #455 on: October 22, 2016, 07:23:48 pm »

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It seems like they see the Senate/governor's race have a winnable race, but need extra push in the cities... but they don't expect/plan to win the whole state.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #456 on: October 22, 2016, 09:01:16 pm »

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Wasn't Murphy supposed to be a prodigious fundraiser?
I know Florida is a money pit but still he should have enough money to get his message out.
Murphy has a good amount of money, but the GOP donors are giving majorly to Rubio. He's still a GOP star.

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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #457 on: October 22, 2016, 09:03:39 pm »

rubio is too important for the party to lose.

if he disappears from the senate, he could be dead for 2020.....not likely.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #458 on: October 23, 2016, 06:31:27 am »


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Wasn't Murphy supposed to be a prodigious fundraiser?
I know Florida is a money pit but still he should have enough money to get his message out.
Murphy has a good amount of money, but the GOP donors are giving majorly to Rubio. He's still a GOP star.



Of course, a man without principles is always a valuable commodity among the Republican donor class.
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Holmes
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« Reply #459 on: October 23, 2016, 09:34:27 am »
« Edited: October 23, 2016, 09:36:15 am by Holmes »

I think the DSCC wants to defeat Rubio, but wants to get to 50 seats even more, and they see IN, MO and NC as easer paths (outside of the conventional IL/WI/PA/NH). They probably think defeating Rubio would be really expensive, and it would be, but they're downplaying his vulnerability. Oh well.

If anything wins the day for Murphy, it'll be Clinton's ground game  (and Trump's lack of one), but I think the Clinton campaign really doesn't care about getting Clinton/Rubio voters to the polls.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #460 on: October 23, 2016, 07:35:44 pm »


Yea, there is a reason Dems arent going into Georgia like Arizona

It looks like North GA is voting early a lot. Excess of retired cabin retirees?

https://public.tableau.com/profile/john8765#!/vizhome/2016EarlyVotingasof102216/Dashboard
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politicallefty
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« Reply #461 on: October 23, 2016, 07:46:02 pm »

If anything wins the day for Murphy, it'll be Clinton's ground game  (and Trump's lack of one), but I think the Clinton campaign really doesn't care about getting Clinton/Rubio voters to the polls.

I was watching one of the MSNBC shows this past week and that seems to be the viewpoint from the national party. Basically. FL-Sen will fall if Hillary wins by enough and Rubio wins if it's closer. In other words, there's not much that can be done in terms of the air game. A lot is really dependent on the ground game. If Hillary can win Florida by about 5%, her superior ground game could be enough to take him out, but there really is no margin for error. Things need to go very right for Murphy to to win.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #462 on: October 23, 2016, 11:57:45 pm »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8
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Arch
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« Reply #463 on: October 24, 2016, 12:17:23 am »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

So, following the 5-point rule, he's at the edge in GA and losing AZ and OH. Not buying UT or TX, and IN+6 is about expected.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #464 on: October 24, 2016, 12:24:58 am »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

Those are junk Reuters polls.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #465 on: October 24, 2016, 12:27:46 am »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

Those are junk Reuters polls.

Just saw a Trump supporter sharing them on Facebook, so I thought I would post them here.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #466 on: October 24, 2016, 12:28:15 am »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

Those are junk Reuters polls.

Just saw a Trump supporter sharing them on Facebook, so I thought I would post them here.

Maybe attempt to verify first?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #467 on: October 24, 2016, 12:46:14 am »

Check this Caporale guy's twitter. He's literally just retweeting Reuters/Ipsos polls.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #468 on: October 24, 2016, 05:02:22 pm »



https://twitter.com/7im/status/790673637946732544
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #469 on: October 24, 2016, 05:03:47 pm »


Fascinating.  How do we apply the 5-point rule in a 3-way race?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #470 on: October 24, 2016, 05:08:32 pm »

Internal for Shelli Yoder in IN-09 has Trump +10. Romney won it by 17 in 2012, McCain by 9 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328736169/IN-09-Garin-Hart-Yang-for-Shelli-Yoder-Oct-2016
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #471 on: October 24, 2016, 05:11:30 pm »


Is this result for the district or statewide?
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #472 on: October 24, 2016, 05:12:38 pm »

Internal for Shelli Yoder in IN-09 has Trump +10. Romney won it by 17 in 2012, McCain by 9 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328736169/IN-09-Garin-Hart-Yang-for-Shelli-Yoder-Oct-2016
Nah, Mccain won it by 6 points for the record.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #473 on: October 24, 2016, 05:13:51 pm »

Is this result for the district or statewide?

Just the district.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #474 on: October 24, 2016, 05:15:01 pm »


Can we extrapolate a statewide result from that?
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