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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 63096 times)
IceSpear
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« Reply #450 on: October 22, 2016, 12:58:55 pm »


You'd think at least one Florida poll would've captured this if it was true. Clinton up 4 is definitely great for a state like Florida, but from the hyperbolic tone of that tweet you'd think it meant she was up double digits there or something. Unless said swing districts are being offset in safe districts.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #451 on: October 22, 2016, 01:00:31 pm »


You'd think at least one Florida poll would've captured this if it was true. Clinton up 4 is definitely great for a state like Florida, but from the hyperbolic tone of that tweet you'd think it meant she was up double digits in the state or something. Unless said swing districts are being offset in safe districts.
My guess is that Trump's overperforming in the panhandle? Maybe the swing map is something like the 2014 gubernatorial one.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #452 on: October 22, 2016, 01:06:09 pm »

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Wasn't Murphy supposed to be a prodigious fundraiser?
I know Florida is a money pit but still he should have enough money to get his message out.
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Hammy
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« Reply #453 on: October 22, 2016, 01:27:30 pm »

Are these GOP internals?
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #454 on: October 22, 2016, 01:29:01 pm »

I'll believe it when I see it, but... wow.
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Holmes
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« Reply #455 on: October 22, 2016, 01:29:13 pm »


Yeah, I think the New Hampshire one is the one from a week or so ago from the Ayotte campaign? Unless there was another internal with her up 14 in New Hampshire.
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dspNY
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« Reply #456 on: October 22, 2016, 01:52:47 pm »

PPP when asked if Hillary is going to win: Yes
To a Trump supporter: I think November 9th is going to be a rough day for you Gary

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/789821571359711232
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Fargobison
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« Reply #457 on: October 22, 2016, 01:54:28 pm »

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Wasn't Murphy supposed to be a prodigious fundraiser?
I know Florida is a money pit but still he should have enough money to get his message out.

His dad can always cut him another check.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #458 on: October 22, 2016, 01:58:11 pm »

PPP when asked if Hillary is going to win: Yes
To a Trump supporter: I think November 9th is going to be a rough day for you Gary

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/789821571359711232


I'm happy to hear them say that the undecideds that they are polling feel the same about both candidates, but generally like Obama's direction. That's a good sign.

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/789895377600319488
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #459 on: October 22, 2016, 02:16:50 pm »



I'm happy to hear them say that the undecideds that they are polling feel the same about both candidates, but generally like Obama's direction. That's a good sign.


Yep, and it disproves Bill Mitchell's "Monster Vote" Theory.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #460 on: October 22, 2016, 06:50:58 pm »

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/buoyed-by-rising-polls-clinton-shifts-to-a-new-target-the-house-and-senate/2016/10/22/9c717070-97c3-11e6-bb29-bf2701dbe0a3_story.html
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #461 on: October 22, 2016, 07:06:44 pm »

If Indiana is actually that close, they should send Bernie over there.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #462 on: October 22, 2016, 07:23:48 pm »

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It seems like they see the Senate/governor's race have a winnable race, but need extra push in the cities... but they don't expect/plan to win the whole state.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #463 on: October 22, 2016, 09:01:16 pm »

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Wasn't Murphy supposed to be a prodigious fundraiser?
I know Florida is a money pit but still he should have enough money to get his message out.
Murphy has a good amount of money, but the GOP donors are giving majorly to Rubio. He's still a GOP star.

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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #464 on: October 22, 2016, 09:03:39 pm »

rubio is too important for the party to lose.

if he disappears from the senate, he could be dead for 2020.....not likely.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #465 on: October 23, 2016, 06:31:27 am »


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Wasn't Murphy supposed to be a prodigious fundraiser?
I know Florida is a money pit but still he should have enough money to get his message out.
Murphy has a good amount of money, but the GOP donors are giving majorly to Rubio. He's still a GOP star.



Of course, a man without principles is always a valuable commodity among the Republican donor class.
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Holmes
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« Reply #466 on: October 23, 2016, 09:34:27 am »
« Edited: October 23, 2016, 09:36:15 am by Holmes »

I think the DSCC wants to defeat Rubio, but wants to get to 50 seats even more, and they see IN, MO and NC as easer paths (outside of the conventional IL/WI/PA/NH). They probably think defeating Rubio would be really expensive, and it would be, but they're downplaying his vulnerability. Oh well.

If anything wins the day for Murphy, it'll be Clinton's ground game  (and Trump's lack of one), but I think the Clinton campaign really doesn't care about getting Clinton/Rubio voters to the polls.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #467 on: October 23, 2016, 07:35:44 pm »


Yea, there is a reason Dems arent going into Georgia like Arizona

It looks like North GA is voting early a lot. Excess of retired cabin retirees?

https://public.tableau.com/profile/john8765#!/vizhome/2016EarlyVotingasof102216/Dashboard
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politicallefty
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« Reply #468 on: October 23, 2016, 07:46:02 pm »

If anything wins the day for Murphy, it'll be Clinton's ground game  (and Trump's lack of one), but I think the Clinton campaign really doesn't care about getting Clinton/Rubio voters to the polls.

I was watching one of the MSNBC shows this past week and that seems to be the viewpoint from the national party. Basically. FL-Sen will fall if Hillary wins by enough and Rubio wins if it's closer. In other words, there's not much that can be done in terms of the air game. A lot is really dependent on the ground game. If Hillary can win Florida by about 5%, her superior ground game could be enough to take him out, but there really is no margin for error. Things need to go very right for Murphy to to win.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #469 on: October 23, 2016, 11:57:45 pm »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8
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Arch
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« Reply #470 on: October 24, 2016, 12:17:23 am »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

So, following the 5-point rule, he's at the edge in GA and losing AZ and OH. Not buying UT or TX, and IN+6 is about expected.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #471 on: October 24, 2016, 12:24:58 am »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

Those are junk Reuters polls.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #472 on: October 24, 2016, 12:27:46 am »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

Those are junk Reuters polls.

Just saw a Trump supporter sharing them on Facebook, so I thought I would post them here.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #473 on: October 24, 2016, 12:28:15 am »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

Those are junk Reuters polls.

Just saw a Trump supporter sharing them on Facebook, so I thought I would post them here.

Maybe attempt to verify first?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #474 on: October 24, 2016, 12:46:14 am »

Check this Caporale guy's twitter. He's literally just retweeting Reuters/Ipsos polls.
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