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  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 63086 times)
Fargobison
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« Reply #475 on: October 24, 2016, 05:02:22 pm »



https://twitter.com/7im/status/790673637946732544
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #476 on: October 24, 2016, 05:03:47 pm »


Fascinating.  How do we apply the 5-point rule in a 3-way race?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #477 on: October 24, 2016, 05:08:32 pm »

Internal for Shelli Yoder in IN-09 has Trump +10. Romney won it by 17 in 2012, McCain by 9 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328736169/IN-09-Garin-Hart-Yang-for-Shelli-Yoder-Oct-2016
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #478 on: October 24, 2016, 05:11:30 pm »


Is this result for the district or statewide?
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #479 on: October 24, 2016, 05:12:38 pm »

Internal for Shelli Yoder in IN-09 has Trump +10. Romney won it by 17 in 2012, McCain by 9 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328736169/IN-09-Garin-Hart-Yang-for-Shelli-Yoder-Oct-2016
Nah, Mccain won it by 6 points for the record.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #480 on: October 24, 2016, 05:13:51 pm »

Is this result for the district or statewide?

Just the district.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #481 on: October 24, 2016, 05:15:01 pm »


Can we extrapolate a statewide result from that?
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #482 on: October 24, 2016, 05:17:16 pm »

If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #483 on: October 24, 2016, 05:18:06 pm »

If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney

What do you do with McMullin?  They have him tied with Trump. 
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Ebsy
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« Reply #484 on: October 24, 2016, 05:22:50 pm »

If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney
lolno

Romney won Utah 4 by 37 points.
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dspNY
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« Reply #485 on: October 24, 2016, 05:24:13 pm »

If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney

If Trump is lagging Romney even by one or two points in the Rust Belt he loses
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #486 on: October 24, 2016, 05:25:28 pm »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

There are Reuters polls.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #487 on: October 25, 2016, 07:25:52 am »

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/790887012622565377

Jonathan Martin from the NYT reports that the Upshot/Siena poll of NC poll showing Clinton up 7 mirrors private GOP polling.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #488 on: October 25, 2016, 07:32:02 am »

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/790887012622565377

Jonathan Martin from the NYT reports that the Upshot/Siena poll of NC poll showing Clinton up 7 mirrors private GOP polling.

How did GOP internals get so accurate? These guys were predicting Romney landslide.

Or are they over-compensating for their embarrassment in 2012?
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #489 on: October 25, 2016, 07:34:56 am »

I have suspicious about private polls and wonder if they just make them up and feed them to reporters to advance their Never Trump agenda, but it does make its way to newspapers.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #490 on: October 25, 2016, 10:43:46 am »

"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #491 on: October 25, 2016, 10:47:07 am »

"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712
Ruh-roh.

And those are internals!
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #492 on: October 25, 2016, 10:53:35 am »

So, what we see is probably what we get with a week and change left.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #493 on: October 25, 2016, 11:37:44 am »

"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712

That twitter feed is hilarious. These Trump supporters are in for a rude awakening on November 8th.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #494 on: October 25, 2016, 11:41:54 am »

"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712

That twitter feed is hilarious. These Trump supporters are in for a rude awakening on November 8th.

The mocking these folks deserve...
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #495 on: October 25, 2016, 05:13:54 pm »

John HarwoodVerified account
‏@JohnJHarwood
top GOP pollster: "What we're seeing is Johnson and Stein trending down, and going to Clinton."
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #496 on: October 25, 2016, 06:02:27 pm »

John HarwoodVerified account
‏@JohnJHarwood
top GOP pollster: "What we're seeing is Johnson and Stein trending down, and going to Clinton."

I saw an article today that millennials are coming home for Clinton more and more, which dovetails nicely with what you said.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #497 on: October 26, 2016, 10:12:17 am »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 10:27:22 am by Castro »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY
top GOP pollster on Bloomberg Poll showing Trump +2 in FL: "such an outlier, I'm not going to believe it until confirmed by other surveys"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
second top GOP pollster on Bloomberg's +2 Trump poll in FL: "not correct"
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Yank2133
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« Reply #498 on: October 26, 2016, 10:38:47 am »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 10:43:02 am by Yank2133 »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY
top GOP pollster on Bloomberg Poll showing Trump +2 in FL: "such an outlier, I'm not going to believe it until confirmed by other surveys"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
second top GOP pollster on Bloomberg's +2 Trump poll in FL: "not correct"

This was obvious just by looking at the early voting numbers. Selzer is a good pollster, but their LV screen is failing them here.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #499 on: October 26, 2016, 10:42:31 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY
top GOP pollster on Bloomberg Poll showing Trump +2 in FL: "such an outlier, I'm not going to believe it until confirmed by other surveys"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
second top GOP pollster on Bloomberg's +2 Trump poll in FL: "not correct"

This obvious just by looking at the early voting numbers. Selzer is a good pollster, but their LV screen is failing them here.
Selzer has overestimated Trump this whole cycle, starting with the Iow caucuses.
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