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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 60095 times)
HillOfANight
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« Reply #475 on: October 23, 2016, 07:35:44 pm »

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/early-voting-women-battleground-states-230176
Quote
Randy Evans, a Republican National committeeman from Georgia, said hes skeptical that the debate was truly a flashpoint in the race for Clinton. He said early vote numbers indicate a higher proportion of votes from rural areas than four years ago, with lighter numbers in urban areas, suggesting a potential tilt toward Trump.

Im not gonna pretend, with this electorate, to have the crystal ball, he said, citing internal polls hes seen giving Trump a 4- to 6-point edge.

Basically confirming the recent Georgia polls we've seen.

Yea, there is a reason Dems arent going into Georgia like Arizona

It looks like North GA is voting early a lot. Excess of retired cabin retirees?

https://public.tableau.com/profile/john8765#!/vizhome/2016EarlyVotingasof102216/Dashboard
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politicallefty
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« Reply #476 on: October 23, 2016, 07:46:02 pm »

If anything wins the day for Murphy, it'll be Clinton's ground game  (and Trump's lack of one), but I think the Clinton campaign really doesn't care about getting Clinton/Rubio voters to the polls.

I was watching one of the MSNBC shows this past week and that seems to be the viewpoint from the national party. Basically. FL-Sen will fall if Hillary wins by enough and Rubio wins if it's closer. In other words, there's not much that can be done in terms of the air game. A lot is really dependent on the ground game. If Hillary can win Florida by about 5%, her superior ground game could be enough to take him out, but there really is no margin for error. Things need to go very right for Murphy to to win.
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #477 on: October 23, 2016, 11:57:45 pm »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8
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Arch
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« Reply #478 on: October 24, 2016, 12:17:23 am »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

So, following the 5-point rule, he's at the edge in GA and losing AZ and OH. Not buying UT or TX, and IN+6 is about expected.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #479 on: October 24, 2016, 12:24:58 am »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

Those are junk Reuters polls.
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #480 on: October 24, 2016, 12:27:46 am »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

Those are junk Reuters polls.

Just saw a Trump supporter sharing them on Facebook, so I thought I would post them here.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #481 on: October 24, 2016, 12:28:15 am »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

Those are junk Reuters polls.

Just saw a Trump supporter sharing them on Facebook, so I thought I would post them here.

Maybe attempt to verify first?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #482 on: October 24, 2016, 12:46:14 am »

Check this Caporale guy's twitter. He's literally just retweeting Reuters/Ipsos polls.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #483 on: October 24, 2016, 05:02:22 pm »

Img


https://twitter.com/7im/status/790673637946732544
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #484 on: October 24, 2016, 05:03:47 pm »


Fascinating.  How do we apply the 5-point rule in a 3-way race?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #485 on: October 24, 2016, 05:08:32 pm »

Internal for Shelli Yoder in IN-09 has Trump +10. Romney won it by 17 in 2012, McCain by 9 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328736169/IN-09-Garin-Hart-Yang-for-Shelli-Yoder-Oct-2016
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #486 on: October 24, 2016, 05:11:30 pm »


Is this result for the district or statewide?
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King Francis I
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« Reply #487 on: October 24, 2016, 05:12:38 pm »

Internal for Shelli Yoder in IN-09 has Trump +10. Romney won it by 17 in 2012, McCain by 9 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328736169/IN-09-Garin-Hart-Yang-for-Shelli-Yoder-Oct-2016
Nah, Mccain won it by 6 points for the record.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #488 on: October 24, 2016, 05:13:51 pm »

Is this result for the district or statewide?

Just the district.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #489 on: October 24, 2016, 05:15:01 pm »

Is this result for the district or statewide?

Just the district.

Can we extrapolate a statewide result from that?
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #490 on: October 24, 2016, 05:17:16 pm »

Is this result for the district or statewide?

Just the district.

Can we extrapolate a statewide result from that?
If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #491 on: October 24, 2016, 05:18:06 pm »

Is this result for the district or statewide?

Just the district.

Can we extrapolate a statewide result from that?
If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney

What do you do with McMullin?  They have him tied with Trump. 
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Ebsy
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« Reply #492 on: October 24, 2016, 05:22:50 pm »

If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney
lolno

Romney won Utah 4 by 37 points.
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dspNY
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« Reply #493 on: October 24, 2016, 05:24:13 pm »

Is this result for the district or statewide?

Just the district.

Can we extrapolate a statewide result from that?
If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney

If Trump is lagging Romney even by one or two points in the Rust Belt he loses
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #494 on: October 24, 2016, 05:25:28 pm »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

There are Reuters polls.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #495 on: October 25, 2016, 07:25:52 am »

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/790887012622565377

Jonathan Martin from the NYT reports that the Upshot/Siena poll of NC poll showing Clinton up 7 mirrors private GOP polling.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #496 on: October 25, 2016, 07:32:02 am »

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/790887012622565377

Jonathan Martin from the NYT reports that the Upshot/Siena poll of NC poll showing Clinton up 7 mirrors private GOP polling.

How did GOP internals get so accurate? These guys were predicting Romney landslide.

Or are they over-compensating for their embarrassment in 2012?
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #497 on: October 25, 2016, 07:34:56 am »

I have suspicious about private polls and wonder if they just make them up and feed them to reporters to advance their Never Trump agenda, but it does make its way to newspapers.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #498 on: October 25, 2016, 10:43:46 am »

"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "Weve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #499 on: October 25, 2016, 10:47:07 am »

"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "Weve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712
Ruh-roh.

And those are internals!
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