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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 63188 times)
Classic Conservative
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« Reply #475 on: October 24, 2016, 05:17:16 pm »

If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #476 on: October 24, 2016, 05:18:06 pm »

If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney

What do you do with McMullin?  They have him tied with Trump. 
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Ebsy
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« Reply #477 on: October 24, 2016, 05:22:50 pm »

If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney
lolno

Romney won Utah 4 by 37 points.
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dspNY
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« Reply #478 on: October 24, 2016, 05:24:13 pm »

If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney

If Trump is lagging Romney even by one or two points in the Rust Belt he loses
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #479 on: October 24, 2016, 05:25:28 pm »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

There are Reuters polls.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #480 on: October 25, 2016, 07:25:52 am »

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/790887012622565377

Jonathan Martin from the NYT reports that the Upshot/Siena poll of NC poll showing Clinton up 7 mirrors private GOP polling.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #481 on: October 25, 2016, 07:32:02 am »

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/790887012622565377

Jonathan Martin from the NYT reports that the Upshot/Siena poll of NC poll showing Clinton up 7 mirrors private GOP polling.

How did GOP internals get so accurate? These guys were predicting Romney landslide.

Or are they over-compensating for their embarrassment in 2012?
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #482 on: October 25, 2016, 07:34:56 am »

I have suspicious about private polls and wonder if they just make them up and feed them to reporters to advance their Never Trump agenda, but it does make its way to newspapers.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #483 on: October 25, 2016, 10:43:46 am »

"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #484 on: October 25, 2016, 10:47:07 am »

"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712
Ruh-roh.

And those are internals!
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #485 on: October 25, 2016, 10:53:35 am »

So, what we see is probably what we get with a week and change left.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #486 on: October 25, 2016, 11:37:44 am »

"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712

That twitter feed is hilarious. These Trump supporters are in for a rude awakening on November 8th.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #487 on: October 25, 2016, 11:41:54 am »

"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712

That twitter feed is hilarious. These Trump supporters are in for a rude awakening on November 8th.

The mocking these folks deserve...
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #488 on: October 25, 2016, 05:13:54 pm »

John HarwoodVerified account
‏@JohnJHarwood
top GOP pollster: "What we're seeing is Johnson and Stein trending down, and going to Clinton."
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #489 on: October 25, 2016, 06:02:27 pm »

John HarwoodVerified account
‏@JohnJHarwood
top GOP pollster: "What we're seeing is Johnson and Stein trending down, and going to Clinton."

I saw an article today that millennials are coming home for Clinton more and more, which dovetails nicely with what you said.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #490 on: October 26, 2016, 10:12:17 am »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 10:27:22 am by Castro »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY
top GOP pollster on Bloomberg Poll showing Trump +2 in FL: "such an outlier, I'm not going to believe it until confirmed by other surveys"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
second top GOP pollster on Bloomberg's +2 Trump poll in FL: "not correct"
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Yank2133
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« Reply #491 on: October 26, 2016, 10:38:47 am »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 10:43:02 am by Yank2133 »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY
top GOP pollster on Bloomberg Poll showing Trump +2 in FL: "such an outlier, I'm not going to believe it until confirmed by other surveys"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
second top GOP pollster on Bloomberg's +2 Trump poll in FL: "not correct"

This was obvious just by looking at the early voting numbers. Selzer is a good pollster, but their LV screen is failing them here.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #492 on: October 26, 2016, 10:42:31 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY
top GOP pollster on Bloomberg Poll showing Trump +2 in FL: "such an outlier, I'm not going to believe it until confirmed by other surveys"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
second top GOP pollster on Bloomberg's +2 Trump poll in FL: "not correct"

This obvious just by looking at the early voting numbers. Selzer is a good pollster, but their LV screen is failing them here.
Selzer has overestimated Trump this whole cycle, starting with the Iow caucuses.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #493 on: October 27, 2016, 06:22:45 am »

Anyone know of any recent internals from Texas?
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #494 on: October 27, 2016, 08:21:34 am »

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-27/inside-the-trump-bunker-with-12-days-to-go

Trump’s team... built a model, the “Battleground Optimizer Path to Victory,” to weight and rank the states that the data team believes are most critical to amassing the 270 electoral votes Trump needs to win the White House. On Oct. 18 they rank as follows:

1. Florida
2. Ohio
3. Pennsylvania
4. North Carolina
5. Georgia
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #495 on: October 27, 2016, 10:19:36 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  10m10 minutes ago
GOP Senate strategist on Roy Blunt's precarious fate in MO: "1% race. think he wins"
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #496 on: October 27, 2016, 09:54:46 pm »



At a fundraiser for Brad Ashford tonight, Xavier Becerra said that he saw a poll showing Clinton +1 in Texas.
https://twitter.com/davesund/status/791832331170353152?lang=en
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #497 on: October 27, 2016, 10:01:00 pm »



At a fundraiser for Brad Ashford tonight, Xavier Becerra said that he saw a poll showing Clinton +1 in Texas.
https://twitter.com/davesund/status/791832331170353152?lang=en

Perhaps Trump needs to spend some time in the Mountain/SouthWest: AZ, UT, TX...who would have guessed these states would be +1, +3, +3 twelve days before election day?
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #498 on: October 27, 2016, 10:02:31 pm »

Perhaps Trump needs to spend some time in the Mountain/SouthWest: AZ, UT, TX...who would have guessed these states would be +1, +3, +3 twelve days before election day?

even if hillary loses all of them...not really ulikely.....team trump will have spent an amazing amount of their scarce ressources defending them....
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Ronnie
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« Reply #499 on: October 27, 2016, 11:30:16 pm »

Plus, I'm pretty sure that Trump campaigning in Utah would actually diminish his numbers there.
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