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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 62261 times)
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« Reply #475 on: October 24, 2016, 12:17:23 am »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

So, following the 5-point rule, he's at the edge in GA and losing AZ and OH. Not buying UT or TX, and IN+6 is about expected.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #476 on: October 24, 2016, 12:24:58 am »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

Those are junk Reuters polls.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #477 on: October 24, 2016, 12:27:46 am »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

Those are junk Reuters polls.

Just saw a Trump supporter sharing them on Facebook, so I thought I would post them here.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #478 on: October 24, 2016, 12:28:15 am »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

Those are junk Reuters polls.

Just saw a Trump supporter sharing them on Facebook, so I thought I would post them here.

Maybe attempt to verify first?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #479 on: October 24, 2016, 12:46:14 am »

Check this Caporale guy's twitter. He's literally just retweeting Reuters/Ipsos polls.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #480 on: October 24, 2016, 05:02:22 pm »



https://twitter.com/7im/status/790673637946732544
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #481 on: October 24, 2016, 05:03:47 pm »


Fascinating.  How do we apply the 5-point rule in a 3-way race?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #482 on: October 24, 2016, 05:08:32 pm »

Internal for Shelli Yoder in IN-09 has Trump +10. Romney won it by 17 in 2012, McCain by 9 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328736169/IN-09-Garin-Hart-Yang-for-Shelli-Yoder-Oct-2016
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #483 on: October 24, 2016, 05:11:30 pm »


Is this result for the district or statewide?
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #484 on: October 24, 2016, 05:12:38 pm »

Internal for Shelli Yoder in IN-09 has Trump +10. Romney won it by 17 in 2012, McCain by 9 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328736169/IN-09-Garin-Hart-Yang-for-Shelli-Yoder-Oct-2016
Nah, Mccain won it by 6 points for the record.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #485 on: October 24, 2016, 05:13:51 pm »

Is this result for the district or statewide?

Just the district.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #486 on: October 24, 2016, 05:15:01 pm »


Can we extrapolate a statewide result from that?
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #487 on: October 24, 2016, 05:17:16 pm »

If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #488 on: October 24, 2016, 05:18:06 pm »

If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney

What do you do with McMullin?  They have him tied with Trump. 
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Ebsy
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« Reply #489 on: October 24, 2016, 05:22:50 pm »

If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney
lolno

Romney won Utah 4 by 37 points.
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dspNY
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« Reply #490 on: October 24, 2016, 05:24:13 pm »

If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney

If Trump is lagging Romney even by one or two points in the Rust Belt he loses
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #491 on: October 24, 2016, 05:25:28 pm »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

There are Reuters polls.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #492 on: October 25, 2016, 07:25:52 am »

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/790887012622565377

Jonathan Martin from the NYT reports that the Upshot/Siena poll of NC poll showing Clinton up 7 mirrors private GOP polling.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #493 on: October 25, 2016, 07:32:02 am »

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/790887012622565377

Jonathan Martin from the NYT reports that the Upshot/Siena poll of NC poll showing Clinton up 7 mirrors private GOP polling.

How did GOP internals get so accurate? These guys were predicting Romney landslide.

Or are they over-compensating for their embarrassment in 2012?
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #494 on: October 25, 2016, 07:34:56 am »

I have suspicious about private polls and wonder if they just make them up and feed them to reporters to advance their Never Trump agenda, but it does make its way to newspapers.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #495 on: October 25, 2016, 10:43:46 am »

"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #496 on: October 25, 2016, 10:47:07 am »

"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712
Ruh-roh.

And those are internals!
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #497 on: October 25, 2016, 10:53:35 am »

So, what we see is probably what we get with a week and change left.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #498 on: October 25, 2016, 11:37:44 am »

"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712

That twitter feed is hilarious. These Trump supporters are in for a rude awakening on November 8th.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #499 on: October 25, 2016, 11:41:54 am »

"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712

That twitter feed is hilarious. These Trump supporters are in for a rude awakening on November 8th.

The mocking these folks deserve...
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