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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 64160 times)
Ebsy
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« Reply #525 on: October 31, 2016, 10:00:26 pm »

NC is either gone or very close to it at this point.
Gone for who?
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Seriously?
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« Reply #526 on: October 31, 2016, 11:16:25 pm »

The Trump Tape was definitely more severe in its polling impact, with Monmouth showing Trump up Indiana 1 day, then down double digits the next, and Marquette having Trump up, then down...

It probably will take a week to understand the impact.

And the FBI story is too confusing for most people to digest, and the campaign is effectively countering back, and even has the support of hardline Republicans. Plus, tons of Trump oppo dumping tonight.
Not when sex is involved. That seems to make it easier for the American public to pay attention to it. Pervert Anthony Weiner makes this story juicier than it would normally be.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #527 on: November 01, 2016, 01:25:13 am »

The Trump Tape was definitely more severe in its polling impact, with Monmouth showing Trump up Indiana 1 day, then down double digits the next, and Marquette having Trump up, then down...

It probably will take a week to understand the impact.

And the FBI story is too confusing for most people to digest, and the campaign is effectively countering back, and even has the support of hardline Republicans. Plus, tons of Trump oppo dumping tonight.
Not when sex is involved. That seems to make it easier for the American public to pay attention to it. Pervert Anthony Weiner makes this story juicier than it would normally be.

Pervert who?Huh

Another email story about the same old, same old, what???

It's the same deal with the Trump groppergate.... big news initially and then five other women came forward and it barely drops on the radar of the American public.

Reality, is that this story, nor the DNC hack stories, doesn't really move the needle.

60+% of Americans see Trump as basically a sexist pig, racially insensitive, and lacking the fundamental judgement, temperament, and experience to run the highest office in the Nation, particularly on foreign policy, and 60% of Americans don't see Clinton as honest and trustworthy, and at worst view her more as a typical "politician" that will say one thing to Wall Street and another to Main Street to get elected.

You can believe whatever you want to believe, but the only people really obsessed with sex are Republicans, and the vast majority of evangelicals decided to forgive Trump of his sins solely because he has an (R) after his last name on the ballot.

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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #528 on: November 01, 2016, 02:54:55 am »

Here's a somewhat cryptic tweet from PPP:

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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #529 on: November 01, 2016, 04:30:09 am »

Here's a somewhat cryptic tweet from PPP:

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Well... I suppose it is.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #530 on: November 01, 2016, 05:59:19 am »

Here's a somewhat cryptic tweet from PPP:

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Sounds good. I interpret it as the-margin-is-inside-MOE-win and Trump trending up, i.e. Clinton +3-4 right now and Trump is doing slightly better in recent days.

Consistent with my theory, that last night attack was because of ABC'ish internals.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #531 on: November 01, 2016, 07:37:59 am »

Here's a somewhat cryptic tweet from PPP:

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Thanks for nothing, Comey.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #532 on: November 01, 2016, 07:54:32 am »

Here's a somewhat cryptic tweet from PPP:

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A pessimistic PPP? Uh oh...
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #533 on: November 01, 2016, 07:57:37 am »

Hmm. Yeah, they're pretty dead-on about this kind of thing. I wonder what they started seeing, since they didn't see anything at first. We'll see what they have.
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LiberalPA
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« Reply #534 on: November 01, 2016, 10:12:56 am »

@JohnJHarwood  5s6 seconds ago


top GOP pollster: "Trump recovering, not enough to dig out of hole. superior HRC data/digital/GOTV too much to overcome. GOP holds Senate."



https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793470712287748097
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« Reply #535 on: November 01, 2016, 10:13:17 am »

Which sounds kinda like PPP does.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #536 on: November 01, 2016, 10:17:00 am »

@JohnJHarwood  5s6 seconds ago


top GOP pollster: "Trump recovering, not enough to dig out of hole. superior HRC data/digital/GOTV too much to overcome. GOP holds Senate."



https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793470712287748097

Is it not the same person that "a former FBI agent says anonymously"?.. Roll Eyes

I mean why the hell would they spread bad news to depress their own pubs? If Trump will lose in landslide, GOP will lose senate as well.

Sorry, but it doesn't make any sense, does it? Huh
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« Reply #537 on: November 01, 2016, 10:19:06 am »

I'm reporting possible leaks, nothing more. It passes the logic test and Harwood's a good journo. You and everyone else can do what you want with it.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #538 on: November 01, 2016, 10:23:25 am »

@JohnJHarwood  5s6 seconds ago


top GOP pollster: "Trump recovering, not enough to dig out of hole. superior HRC data/digital/GOTV too much to overcome. GOP holds Senate."



https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793470712287748097

Is it not the same person that "a former FBI agent says anonymously"?.. Roll Eyes

I mean why the hell would they spread bad news to depress their own pubs? If Trump will lose in landslide, GOP will lose senate as well.

Sorry, but it doesn't make any sense, does it? Huh
where do you see landslide in this comment. They think the firewall states will all fall short, but they still think they can win senate races in MO, NC, IN, NV which would hold Senate. Not really that complicated.
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The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein)
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« Reply #539 on: November 01, 2016, 10:28:42 am »

@JohnJHarwood  5s6 seconds ago


top GOP pollster: "Trump recovering, not enough to dig out of hole. superior HRC data/digital/GOTV too much to overcome. GOP holds Senate."



https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793470712287748097

Is it not the same person that "a former FBI agent says anonymously"?.. Roll Eyes

I mean why the hell would they spread bad news to depress their own pubs? If Trump will lose in landslide, GOP will lose senate as well.

Sorry, but it doesn't make any sense, does it? Huh
where do you see landslide in this comment. They think the firewall states will all fall short, but they still think they can win senate races in MO, NC, IN, NV which would hold Senate. Not really that complicated.

If they win all their firewall races and lose all their non-firewall races (except Bayh), that gives them 50.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #540 on: November 01, 2016, 10:34:00 am »

where do you see landslide in this comment. They think the firewall states will all fall short, but they still think they can win senate races in MO, NC, IN, NV which would hold Senate. Not really that complicated.

I ment that stating this fact might depress voters which may lead to landslide. What would happen, do you think, if "Democrat top pollster" would say the same? Would it not derpess D-voters?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #541 on: November 01, 2016, 10:48:50 am »

@JohnJHarwood  5s6 seconds ago


top GOP pollster: "Trump recovering, not enough to dig out of hole. superior HRC data/digital/GOTV too much to overcome. GOP holds Senate."



https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793470712287748097

This top GOP pollster might be Tony Fabrizio, who linked to Harwood's tweet and said:

Tony Fabrizio
‏@TonyFabrizioGOP Tony Fabrizio Retweeted John Harwood
What if the turnout models are wrong and turnout looks more like 2014 than it does 2012?
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The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein)
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« Reply #542 on: November 01, 2016, 10:53:16 am »

@JohnJHarwood  5s6 seconds ago


top GOP pollster: "Trump recovering, not enough to dig out of hole. superior HRC data/digital/GOTV too much to overcome. GOP holds Senate."



https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793470712287748097

This top GOP pollster might be Tony Fabrizio, who linked to Harwood's tweet and said:

Tony Fabrizio
‏@TonyFabrizioGOP Tony Fabrizio Retweeted John Harwood
What if the turnout models are wrong and turnout looks more like 2014 than it does 2012?

Then maybe Trump wins NC, Nevada and Florida by 3, Colorado, Michigan, and Wisconsin by 1.5-2.0. Loses Virginia and New Hampshire by 1. Wins Ohio and Iowa by 8-10.
It turns out to be a very 2004ish election. May not be a significant change in Congress.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #543 on: November 01, 2016, 10:58:32 am »

where do you see landslide in this comment. They think the firewall states will all fall short, but they still think they can win senate races in MO, NC, IN, NV which would hold Senate. Not really that complicated.

I ment that stating this fact might depress voters which may lead to landslide. What would happen, do you think, if "Democrat top pollster" would say the same? Would it not derpess D-voters?
or maybe they didn't mean for it to be public. I gotta say not many undecided voters are reading John Harwood's twitter.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #544 on: November 01, 2016, 11:54:36 am »

I'm reporting possible leaks, nothing more. It passes the logic test and Harwood's a good journo. You and everyone else can do what you want with it.
...A total hack that has been proven to be a mouthpiece of HRC campaign as if we needed proof. 
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #545 on: November 01, 2016, 11:57:36 am »

I'm reporting possible leaks, nothing more. It passes the logic test and Harwood's a good journo. You and everyone else can do what you want with it.
...A total hack that has been proven to be a mouthpiece of HRC campaign as if we needed proof. 

Well, you're (to say the least) quite an extreme partisan, so I'm not terribly worried about your opinion when I'm seeking to find the current reality of the race. Like I said, here's the message, it jibes more or less with what we've actually seen in the numbers so far (not saying anything of what's to come). Take it or leave it.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #546 on: November 01, 2016, 12:10:37 pm »

Not sure if these will be public polls so posting them here...

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  7m7 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
Just got out of field in 2 Midwestern states we tracked a week ago- margin unchanged in one, Hillary actually doing 2 points better in other
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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« Reply #547 on: November 01, 2016, 12:14:16 pm »

Not sure if these will be public polls so posting them here...

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  7m7 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
Just got out of field in 2 Midwestern states we tracked a week ago- margin unchanged in one, Hillary actually doing 2 points better in other

Hmm. I wonder if their earlier statement was more a gut feeling of the tweeter based on other info rather than their own. Until they actually release anything, impossible to say. Good to hear, though.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #548 on: November 01, 2016, 12:28:20 pm »

Oddly the Senate polls have been moving in the opposite direction.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #549 on: November 01, 2016, 12:28:56 pm »

Oddly the Senate polls have been moving in the opposite direction.
Huh
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