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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 61193 times)
Castro
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« Reply #600 on: November 02, 2016, 07:52:34 am »

More top men. Who? TOP. MEN.

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  7m7 minutes ago
top Dem pollster on Clinton edge: "could get tighter because partisanship such a driver of vote choice, but she's holding steady"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago
non-partisan pollster on Clinton lead: "data says 6 and steady"
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #601 on: November 02, 2016, 08:00:02 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"
Lol
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Brittain33
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« Reply #602 on: November 02, 2016, 08:08:28 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"
Lol

This is consistent with stability in the race over several months assuming all swings are reflecting non-response.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #603 on: November 02, 2016, 08:12:13 am »

6 sounds about right to me, give or take two points in either direction.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #604 on: November 02, 2016, 08:26:15 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"
Lol

This is consistent with stability in the race over several months assuming all swings are reflecting non-response.
Yes, I know. But this says basically nothing. It is like saying:

top Trumpista pollster on approx race in FL/NC/IA/[ any close state]: "from C-2 to T+2 IMHO".
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #605 on: November 02, 2016, 08:30:05 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"
Lol

This is consistent with stability in the race over several months assuming all swings are reflecting non-response.
Yes, I know. But this says basically nothing. It is like saying:

top Trumpista pollster on approx race in FL/NC/IA/[ any close state]: "from C-2 to T+2 IMHO".

So the reality is really Tied to 4 points? I believe it. One more oppo hit against Hillary and Trump will win. Else, she wins.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #606 on: November 02, 2016, 10:30:05 am »

gop pollster: clinton leading 2-4, trump turnout gonna b good.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793833306097852416
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #607 on: November 02, 2016, 10:41:24 am »

gop pollster: clinton leading 2-4, trump turnout gonna b good.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793833306097852416

Excellent analysis.  Non-existent GOTV efforts almost always coincide with fantastic turnout.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #608 on: November 02, 2016, 10:43:08 am »

true but we shouldn't underestimate the RNC and the senate campaigns.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #609 on: November 02, 2016, 12:09:11 pm »

gop operative from NH claims great homecoming, fast closing gap
https://mobile.twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/793855147252285444
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #610 on: November 02, 2016, 12:11:03 pm »

gop operative from NH claims great homecoming, fast closing gap
https://mobile.twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/793855147252285444

But the counterpoint from  a GOP strategist is:

Quote
+1. Having done 4+ successful statewide GOP races in MI, I'll put it this way: if Trump carries MI, I'll die my hair orange... @RadioFreeGOP

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/793810987719589889
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WI Is Tilt D
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« Reply #611 on: November 02, 2016, 12:11:08 pm »

NH's going to be tough. Hillary is around 46-47% there and you know white men are going to swing hard against her. There's no minority base there. Hopefully her performance among NH white women is more similar to Obama 2008 than Obama 2012, or else Trump could squeak by.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #612 on: November 02, 2016, 12:14:36 pm »

Private polling the entire cycle has been steady with a mid single digit lead nationally for Clinton. GOP internals are notoriously horrible in presidential years and I would be skeptical of any reports of states like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire being close.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #613 on: November 02, 2016, 12:17:11 pm »

gop operative from NH claims great homecoming, fast closing gap
https://mobile.twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/793855147252285444

Trump was in a very deep hole in NH, though.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #614 on: November 02, 2016, 12:20:36 pm »

gop operative from NH claims great homecoming, fast closing gap
https://mobile.twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/793855147252285444

Trump was in a very deep hole in NH, though.

Some internals had him down double digits a week ago.
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adrac
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« Reply #615 on: November 02, 2016, 12:34:17 pm »

NH's going to be tough. Hillary is around 46-47% there and you know white men are going to swing hard against her. There's no minority base there. Hopefully her performance among NH white women is more similar to Obama 2008 than Obama 2012, or else Trump could squeak by.

You know what they say about white women in NH...
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Brittain33
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« Reply #616 on: November 02, 2016, 04:22:43 pm »

Apparently Kellyanne Conway said on CNN just now that Trump's internals have him down 4 points in PA.
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dspNY
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« Reply #617 on: November 02, 2016, 04:23:13 pm »

Apparently Kellyanne Conway said on CNN just now that Trump's internals have him down 4 points in PA.

Then he's down by more than that
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Castro
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« Reply #618 on: November 02, 2016, 04:30:34 pm »

Apparently Kellyanne Conway said on CNN just now that Trump's internals have him down 4 points in PA.

Wow, the election is so rigged that even Trump internals are rigged now.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #619 on: November 02, 2016, 04:31:50 pm »

gop operative from NH claims great homecoming, fast closing gap
https://mobile.twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/793855147252285444

Lmao. No Republican was going to beat Clinton in NH. The state is as safe D as you can get.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #620 on: November 02, 2016, 06:59:18 pm »

Omgomg8mgomgomgpmgomg Trump polling showing VA in play OMG OMHOMHO.HP.HPMGLOMG OMG

https://mobile.twitter.com/MajorCBS/status/793954005743452161
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #621 on: November 02, 2016, 07:11:19 pm »

I dont think Virginia is in play, but a couple of internal polls during Comey gate probably showed otherwise.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #622 on: November 02, 2016, 07:13:09 pm »

lol.

It isn't in play, just like NH isn't in play. The man has no path to 270 and is throwing sh**t at the wall to see what sticks.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #623 on: November 02, 2016, 07:14:07 pm »

lol k
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swf541
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« Reply #624 on: November 02, 2016, 07:17:02 pm »

Who else thinks that "internal" is the crappy university poll out today?
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