Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 23, 2019, 06:33:24 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 20 21 22 23 24 [25] 26 27 28 29 30 ... 32 Print
Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 62237 times)
TarHeelDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,185
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #600 on: November 02, 2016, 08:12:13 am »

6 sounds about right to me, give or take two points in either direction.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,654
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #601 on: November 02, 2016, 08:26:15 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"
Lol

This is consistent with stability in the race over several months assuming all swings are reflecting non-response.
Yes, I know. But this says basically nothing. It is like saying:

top Trumpista pollster on approx race in FL/NC/IA/[ any close state]: "from C-2 to T+2 IMHO".
Logged
Edgar Suit Larry
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,250
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #602 on: November 02, 2016, 08:30:05 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"
Lol

This is consistent with stability in the race over several months assuming all swings are reflecting non-response.
Yes, I know. But this says basically nothing. It is like saying:

top Trumpista pollster on approx race in FL/NC/IA/[ any close state]: "from C-2 to T+2 IMHO".

So the reality is really Tied to 4 points? I believe it. One more oppo hit against Hillary and Trump will win. Else, she wins.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,620
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #603 on: November 02, 2016, 10:30:05 am »

gop pollster: clinton leading 2-4, trump turnout gonna b good.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793833306097852416
Logged
HokeyDood
HockeyDude
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,651
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #604 on: November 02, 2016, 10:41:24 am »


Excellent analysis.  Non-existent GOTV efforts almost always coincide with fantastic turnout.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,620
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #605 on: November 02, 2016, 10:43:08 am »

true but we shouldn't underestimate the RNC and the senate campaigns.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,620
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #606 on: November 02, 2016, 12:09:11 pm »

gop operative from NH claims great homecoming, fast closing gap
https://mobile.twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/793855147252285444
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,552


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #607 on: November 02, 2016, 12:11:03 pm »


But the counterpoint from  a GOP strategist is:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Oh Jeremy Corbyn
ShadowOfTheWave
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,582
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #608 on: November 02, 2016, 12:11:08 pm »

NH's going to be tough. Hillary is around 46-47% there and you know white men are going to swing hard against her. There's no minority base there. Hopefully her performance among NH white women is more similar to Obama 2008 than Obama 2012, or else Trump could squeak by.
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,740
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #609 on: November 02, 2016, 12:14:36 pm »

Private polling the entire cycle has been steady with a mid single digit lead nationally for Clinton. GOP internals are notoriously horrible in presidential years and I would be skeptical of any reports of states like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire being close.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,688


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #610 on: November 02, 2016, 12:17:11 pm »


Trump was in a very deep hole in NH, though.
Logged
Yank2133
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,173


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #611 on: November 02, 2016, 12:20:36 pm »


Some internals had him down double digits a week ago.
Logged
adrac
adracman42
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 719


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -7.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #612 on: November 02, 2016, 12:34:17 pm »

NH's going to be tough. Hillary is around 46-47% there and you know white men are going to swing hard against her. There's no minority base there. Hopefully her performance among NH white women is more similar to Obama 2008 than Obama 2012, or else Trump could squeak by.

You know what they say about white women in NH...
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,688


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #613 on: November 02, 2016, 04:22:43 pm »

Apparently Kellyanne Conway said on CNN just now that Trump's internals have him down 4 points in PA.
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,577
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #614 on: November 02, 2016, 04:23:13 pm »

Apparently Kellyanne Conway said on CNN just now that Trump's internals have him down 4 points in PA.

Then he's down by more than that
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,881
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #615 on: November 02, 2016, 04:30:34 pm »

Apparently Kellyanne Conway said on CNN just now that Trump's internals have him down 4 points in PA.

Wow, the election is so rigged that even Trump internals are rigged now.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,025
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #616 on: November 02, 2016, 04:31:50 pm »


Lmao. No Republican was going to beat Clinton in NH. The state is as safe D as you can get.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,620
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #617 on: November 02, 2016, 06:59:18 pm »

Omgomg8mgomgomgpmgomg Trump polling showing VA in play OMG OMHOMHO.HP.HPMGLOMG OMG

https://mobile.twitter.com/MajorCBS/status/793954005743452161
Logged
Fusionmunster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,490


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #618 on: November 02, 2016, 07:11:19 pm »

I dont think Virginia is in play, but a couple of internal polls during Comey gate probably showed otherwise.
Logged
Yank2133
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,173


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #619 on: November 02, 2016, 07:13:09 pm »

lol.

It isn't in play, just like NH isn't in play. The man has no path to 270 and is throwing sh**t at the wall to see what sticks.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,582
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #620 on: November 02, 2016, 07:14:07 pm »

lol k
Logged
swf541
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,154


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #621 on: November 02, 2016, 07:17:02 pm »

Who else thinks that "internal" is the crappy university poll out today?
Logged
Fusionmunster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,490


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #622 on: November 02, 2016, 07:17:24 pm »

Who else thinks that "internal" is the crappy university poll out today?

That too.
Logged
heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,198
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #623 on: November 02, 2016, 07:18:32 pm »

Wasn't the Trump campaign internal polling analysis just a graph of the LA Times poll with some tangent lines drawn?
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,582
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #624 on: November 02, 2016, 07:20:02 pm »

Trump "internals" are never actually internals - they're the most favorable crap poll out there.

And from early vote returns, Virginia not only looks out of play, but like a blow out.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 20 21 22 23 24 [25] 26 27 28 29 30 ... 32 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC