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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 60866 times)
BoAtlantis
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« Reply #650 on: November 04, 2016, 07:35:43 am »

John Harwood

"Trump strategist at last weekend: "MI/PA/WI break our hearts. We win OH/NC/IA; NH/FL toss-up. We win those, LONG night waiting for NV/CO/AZ""

"Clinton strategist on lead entering final weekend: "Solid. Things improved a bit last two days. basically same as we were a week or two ago""
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Worried Italian Progressive
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« Reply #651 on: November 04, 2016, 07:43:24 am »

John Harwood

"Trump strategist at last weekend: "MI/PA/WI break our hearts. We win OH/NC/IA; NH/FL toss-up. We win those, LONG night waiting for NV/CO/AZ""

"Clinton strategist on lead entering final weekend: "Solid. Things improved a bit last two days. basically same as we were a week or two ago""
LOL
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #652 on: November 04, 2016, 07:53:08 am »

John Harwood

"Trump strategist at last weekend: "MI/PA/WI break our hearts. We win OH/NC/IA; NH/FL toss-up. We win those, LONG night waiting for NV/CO/AZ""

"Clinton strategist on lead entering final weekend: "Solid. Things improved a bit last two days. basically same as we were a week or two ago""

The truth is (as usual) in the middle. Smiley
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #653 on: November 04, 2016, 07:53:31 am »

Even the Trump campaign admits Arizona is a tossup!
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #654 on: November 04, 2016, 07:57:08 am »

John Harwood

"Trump strategist at last weekend: "MI/PA/WI break our hearts. We win OH/NC/IA; NH/FL toss-up. We win those, LONG night waiting for NV/CO/AZ""

"Clinton strategist on lead entering final weekend: "Solid. Things improved a bit last two days. basically same as we were a week or two ago""
Yep, as I said the polls have rebounded. It helps that most polls being released lack the day of the Comey release.

The truth is (as usual) in the middle. Smiley
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #655 on: November 04, 2016, 08:04:50 am »

John Harwood

"Trump strategist at last weekend: "MI/PA/WI break our hearts. We win OH/NC/IA; NH/FL toss-up. We win those, LONG night waiting for NV/CO/AZ""

"Clinton strategist on lead entering final weekend: "Solid. Things improved a bit last two days. basically same as we were a week or two ago""

The Trump person isn't talking about polling, they're talking about a path. A least Clinton's is talking about the lay of the land.
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Moderate Pennsylvanian
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« Reply #656 on: November 04, 2016, 08:10:27 am »

Even the Trump campaign admits Arizona is a tossup!

Which means Nevada is not.
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Castro
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« Reply #657 on: November 04, 2016, 08:11:41 am »

If Iowa can trend so far right in one cycle, it's not crazy to think Arizona can trend so far left at the same time. Arizona could even be to the left of Iowa.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #658 on: November 04, 2016, 08:11:52 am »

John Harwood

"Trump strategist at last weekend: "MI/PA/WI break our hearts. We win OH/NC/IA; NH/FL toss-up. We win those, LONG night waiting for NV/CO/AZ""

"Clinton strategist on lead entering final weekend: "Solid. Things improved a bit last two days. basically same as we were a week or two ago""

The Trump person isn't talking about polling, they're talking about a path. A least Clinton's is talking about the lay of the land.

MI/WI/PA, I think she's talking about polling partially because she seems to imply it's out of reach with few days to go.

The rest of them, she means they need to win all of them.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #659 on: November 04, 2016, 08:29:37 am »

If Iowa can trend so far right in one cycle, it's not crazy to think Arizona can trend so far left at the same time. Arizona could even be to the left of Iowa.

If I had to guess, I think Trump ends up winning both by about the same margin (2-3 points).
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #660 on: November 04, 2016, 08:40:18 am »

John Harwood

"Trump strategist at last weekend: "MI/PA/WI break our hearts. We win OH/NC/IA; NH/FL toss-up. We win those, LONG night waiting for NV/CO/AZ""

"Clinton strategist on lead entering final weekend: "Solid. Things improved a bit last two days. basically same as we were a week or two ago""

The truth is (as usual) in the middle. Smiley
Not necessarily
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #661 on: November 04, 2016, 08:41:00 am »

If Iowa can trend so far right in one cycle, it's not crazy to think Arizona can trend so far left at the same time. Arizona could even be to the left of Iowa.

If I had to guess, I think Trump ends up winning both by about the same margin (2-3 points).

Wait... I'm more optimistic than you are?
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #662 on: November 04, 2016, 09:44:47 am »

John Harwood

"top GOP Senate strategist: "All races w/in MOE. think we have IN. concerned about PA/NV this morning. Trump finishing well. comes up short""
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #663 on: November 04, 2016, 09:45:58 am »

John Harwood

"top GOP Senate strategist: "All races w/in MOE. think we have IN. concerned about PA/NV this morning. Trump finishing well. comes up short""

Reading between the lines... Indiana is the only one they think they will win and PA and NV are definitely gone.
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #664 on: November 04, 2016, 09:48:50 am »

I'm worried that things are shifting again.  We need to close strong to win the White House and the Senate.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #665 on: November 04, 2016, 10:04:55 am »

Not really related to internal but


@ppppolls What's your view on OH?

PPP: "Pretty good chance it will be closest state in the country and someone wins by less than a point- our last had Hillary narrowly ahead"
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #666 on: November 04, 2016, 10:06:01 am »

I'm worried that things are shifting again.  We need to close strong to win the White House and the Senate.

People got out of the "OMG emails" to "oh sh**t, Trump could actually win, hell no" mentality.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #667 on: November 04, 2016, 10:06:47 am »

Not really related to internal but


@ppppolls What's your view on OH?

PPP: "Pretty good chance it will be closest state in the country and someone wins by less than a point- our last had Hillary narrowly ahead"

If that's true, he's phucked.  It would be funny if Ohio is like Missouri in 2008 where it comes down to a recount but Hillary has already won.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #668 on: November 04, 2016, 10:07:27 am »

I'm worried that things are shifting again.  We need to close strong to win the White House and the Senate.

People got out of the "OMG emails" to "oh sh**t, Trump could actually win, hell no" mentality.

No one wants it to end like this...
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KingSweden
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« Reply #669 on: November 04, 2016, 10:09:00 am »

Not really related to internal but


@ppppolls What's your view on OH?

PPP: "Pretty good chance it will be closest state in the country and someone wins by less than a point- our last had Hillary narrowly ahead"

Prob within half a point either way
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Bernietards Don't Understand Polling
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #670 on: November 04, 2016, 10:12:07 am »

As long as Hillary makes it through today with no new FBI news she could still have a chance. No one pays attention on the weekend and no one changes their vote the day before the election.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #671 on: November 04, 2016, 10:13:12 am »

As long as Hillary makes it through today with no new FBI news she could still have a chance. No one pays attention on the weekend and no one changes their vote the day before the election.

Hmmm, turning a corner are we?
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #672 on: November 04, 2016, 10:13:37 am »

As long as Hillary makes it through today with no new FBI news she could still have a chance. No one pays attention on the weekend and no one changes their vote the day before the election.
I heard about someone changing their vote from Bush to Gore as they were going to the polling station and heard his campaign on NPR talk about how they weren't just about the oil.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #673 on: November 04, 2016, 10:18:57 am »

I'm worried that things are shifting again.  We need to close strong to win the White House and the Senate.

People got out of the "OMG emails" to "oh sh**t, Trump could actually win, hell no" mentality.

Yeah, I don't buy the "Comey actually INCREASED Dem enthusiasm" spin, but I do think Trump closing the gap has scared Democrats into shifting back from unlikely to likely voters.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #674 on: November 04, 2016, 10:20:18 am »

I'm worried that things are shifting again.  We need to close strong to win the White House and the Senate.

People got out of the "OMG emails" to "oh sh**t, Trump could actually win, hell no" mentality.

Yeah, I don't buy the "Comey actually INCREASED Dem enthusiasm" spin, but I do think Trump closing the gap has scared Democrats into shifting back from unlikely to likely voters.

Bernie bros, I think
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