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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 60125 times)
Speed of Sound
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« Reply #725 on: November 06, 2016, 11:34:19 am »

‏@JohnJHarwood  13s13 seconds ago

3 GOP pollsters I asked this am -  #1: HRC w/304 EVs (losing OH/NC/NH); #2: 322 EVs (winning NC/NH, losing ME-2); #3: 323 EVs (winning ME-2)
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #726 on: November 06, 2016, 11:35:04 am »

‏@JohnJHarwood  13s13 seconds ago

3 GOP pollsters I asked this am -  #1: HRC w/304 EVs (losing OH/NC/NH); #2: 322 EVs (winning NC/NH, losing ME-2); #3: 323 EVs (winning ME-2)
If they're saying that, the reality could be worse.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #727 on: November 06, 2016, 11:36:09 am »

‏@JohnJHarwood  13s13 seconds ago

3 GOP pollsters I asked this am -  #1: HRC w/304 EVs (losing OH/NC/NH); #2: 322 EVs (winning NC/NH, losing ME-2); #3: 323 EVs (winning ME-2)

So they're conceding FL.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #728 on: November 06, 2016, 11:36:44 am »

‏@JohnJHarwood  13s13 seconds ago

3 GOP pollsters I asked this am -  #1: HRC w/304 EVs (losing OH/NC/NH); #2: 322 EVs (winning NC/NH, losing ME-2); #3: 323 EVs (winning ME-2)

So they're conceding FL.

Noticed that, too.
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Mike88
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« Reply #729 on: November 06, 2016, 11:38:16 am »

Echoes of Dukakis in 1988 when he lost

Trump making stops in PA, MI, OH, NC, NH on Election Day itself

Wow! Is that even allowed? Campaigning on election day?
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dspNY
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« Reply #730 on: November 06, 2016, 11:39:42 am »

‏@JohnJHarwood  13s13 seconds ago

3 GOP pollsters I asked this am -  #1: HRC w/304 EVs (losing OH/NC/NH); #2: 322 EVs (winning NC/NH, losing ME-2); #3: 323 EVs (winning ME-2)

So they're conceding FL.

Correlates with Chuck Todd's comments on TODAY this morning from Republican insiders "very nervous" about Hispanic over-performance in FL. Concede FL, concede the election
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #731 on: November 06, 2016, 11:40:51 am »

Echoes of Dukakis in 1988 when he lost

Trump making stops in PA, MI, OH, NC, NH on Election Day itself

Wow! Is that even allowed? Campaigning on election day?

Yes. I remember Obama in 2008 campaigning at Indianapolis before going to Chicago for his election night party.
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dspNY
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« Reply #732 on: November 06, 2016, 11:42:14 am »

Echoes of Dukakis in 1988 when he lost

Trump making stops in PA, MI, OH, NC, NH on Election Day itself

Wow! Is that even allowed? Campaigning on election day?

Yes. I remember Obama in 2008 campaigning at Indianapolis before going to Chicago for his election night party.

Maybe you make one stop, but not five. Check out some of the Youtube clips from the 1988 election and you'll see Trump is throwing spaghetti at the wall in a similar way
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alomas
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« Reply #733 on: November 06, 2016, 11:43:53 am »

That guy you are tweeting is clearly supporting Clinton.

Romney campaigned in Ohio and Pennsylvania on Election Day.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #734 on: November 06, 2016, 11:46:24 am »

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/795267630877777920

.@jeffzeleny reports on @CNN Obama was itching to make 1 final trip to Iowa, which started it all, but was told it was gone. So: Ann Arbor Michigan


One more evidence that superduper magic internals & ground-game doesn't differ much from public polling, no/si?

on the contrary....IA is the opposite if OH.....full republican support for trump since day1 and its demography was pro-populism to begin with....the main reason it voted straight D since years was republican anti-farmer-policy during reagan, i was told.

And? You think it is coincidence that Obama was cancelled day after Selzer showed Trump+7?

no?

i think IA is not a good bellwether state for the nation.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #735 on: November 06, 2016, 11:51:59 am »

Campaigning on election day is stupid. You want your staff 100% focused on GOTV. Organizing an election rally is just a distraction.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #736 on: November 06, 2016, 11:53:15 am »

Not high confidence in a win there, Senator?

@Schultz44  59s59 seconds ago

New: Sen. Isakson tells Atlanta Journal Constitution he expects Senate to confirm Merrick Garland before January.
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« Reply #737 on: November 06, 2016, 11:55:51 am »

That guy you are tweeting is clearly supporting Clinton.

Romney campaigned in Ohio and Pennsylvania on Election Day.

Didn't help him much in the end lol.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #738 on: November 06, 2016, 11:57:28 am »

Echoes of Dukakis in 1988 when he lost

Trump making stops in PA, MI, OH, NC, NH on Election Day itself

Wow! Is that even allowed? Campaigning on election day?

Yes. I remember Obama in 2008 campaigning at Indianapolis before going to Chicago for his election night party.

Maybe you make one stop, but not five. Check out some of the Youtube clips from the 1988 election and you'll see Trump is throwing spaghetti at the wall in a similar way

I agree with you. I don't get what kind of campaign stops will be these, 5 states in a few hours with a lot of time wasted in travel, I doubt he will be able to stay more than a few minutes at every stop. Seems like a waste of money and energy.
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dspNY
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« Reply #739 on: November 06, 2016, 11:59:26 am »

Not high confidence in a win there, Senator?

@Schultz44  59s59 seconds ago

New: Sen. Isakson tells Atlanta Journal Constitution he expects Senate to confirm Merrick Garland before January.

Well then
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politicallefty
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« Reply #740 on: November 06, 2016, 12:03:26 pm »

Not high confidence in a win there, Senator?

@Schultz44  59s59 seconds ago

New: Sen. Isakson tells Atlanta Journal Constitution he expects Senate to confirm Merrick Garland before January.

If Hillary wins and gets a majority in the Senate, President Obama should immediately withdraw his nomination to allow for a substantially more liberal Justice.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #741 on: November 06, 2016, 12:09:37 pm »

nah...give the nevertrump elecorate their garland...there will be 2-3 more vacancies the next 4 years, imho.
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Mallow
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« Reply #742 on: November 06, 2016, 12:11:01 pm »

Not high confidence in a win there, Senator?

@Schultz44  59s59 seconds ago

New: Sen. Isakson tells Atlanta Journal Constitution he expects Senate to confirm Merrick Garland before January.

If Hillary wins and gets a majority in the Senate, President Obama should immediately withdraw his nomination to allow for a substantially more liberal Justice.

Absolutely, 100%. After the sh*t the Republicans pulled here in the hopes that Democrats wouldn't hold the White House, this would be a perfectly reasonable response. I think Obama would be too generous to the Republicans to actually do this, though.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #743 on: November 06, 2016, 09:02:37 pm »

GOP strategist Mike Murphy foresees a short night due to FL (a growing sentiment elsewhere, I think, too):

@murphymike  5m5 minutes ago

My big prediction: I think she'll win FL quickly; will be clear in early numbers. Then cable news will do a huge 180 on "long night".
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heatcharger
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« Reply #744 on: November 06, 2016, 09:04:59 pm »

GOP strategist Mike Murphy foresees a short night due to FL (a growing sentiment elsewhere, I think, too):

@murphymike  5m5 minutes ago

My big prediction: I think she'll win FL quickly; will be clear in early numbers. Then cable news will do a huge 180 on "long night".

It'll look pretty ridiculous is Hillary is leading in the state 51-45 most of the evening but they still don't call it. I'm sure CNN won't to keep people watching.
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Castro
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« Reply #745 on: November 06, 2016, 09:13:42 pm »

Tom Bentley
‏@thomaswmbentley
@ppppolls Do you guys think the same person is gonna win NC and FL?

PublicPolicyPollingVerified account
‏@ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling Retweeted Tom Bentley
Think Hillary will win both but more confident about Florida
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #746 on: November 06, 2016, 09:35:41 pm »

@ppppolls How's the feeling on Ohio though?

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  13m13 minutes ago
Coin flip but remember Clinton ground game- especially with early vote- allowed her to exceed expectations in primary there

@ppppolls how's your feeling on New Hampshire a lot of movement there recently .. which actually makes me less inclined to believe it

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  5m5 minutes ago
PublicPolicyPolling Retweeted Marc Diamond
I think Hillary will outperform the poll averages in NH

@ppppolls Why do you think that?

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  4m4 minutes ago
Because our last poll had her up 5 and most of the 'bad' polls for her last week there had field dates with the Comey stuff very fresh

@ppppolls Do you agree with Ralston on NV?

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  4m4 minutes ago
Yes. Every poll we've released this year has had both Clinton and Cortez Masto winning
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #747 on: November 06, 2016, 09:36:24 pm »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  6m6 minutes ago
senior GOP Senate strategist #2: lose IL/WI/NV/PA/NC. Win OH/NH/FL/IN. win MO by an eyelash (but wouldn't surprise me if Kander won). 50-50
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #748 on: November 06, 2016, 09:39:34 pm »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  6m6 minutes ago
senior GOP Senate strategist #2: lose IL/WI/NV/PA/NC. Win OH/NH/FL/IN. win MO by an eyelash (but wouldn't surprise me if Kander won). 50-50

MO by an eyelash? Lol.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #749 on: November 06, 2016, 09:41:37 pm »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  6m6 minutes ago
senior GOP Senate strategist #2: lose IL/WI/NV/PA/NC. Win OH/NH/FL/IN. win MO by an eyelash (but wouldn't surprise me if Kander won). 50-50

Surprising to see them more bearish on NC than MO and NH.
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