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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 60036 times)
dspNY
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« Reply #775 on: November 07, 2016, 05:30:58 pm »

John Heilmann on WADR says that the Clinton team says their internals "bottomed out" last Wednesday following the Comey letter with the race getting "tight" and since then things have improved with some "breathing room"

My guess is they are up 5 in their internals and the breathing room reference is the path to 270 (either PA or MI) got within a couple of points but is now likely Dem again
« Last Edit: November 07, 2016, 06:24:03 pm by dspNY »Logged
dspNY
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« Reply #776 on: November 07, 2016, 06:22:55 pm »

PPP says this about the following states

VA: Clinton +5 (4-way), Clinton +6 H2H
Believes Clinton will win NH and NV by at least 3
Clinton +2.5% in FL
Clinton +4 in PA
Clinton +5 in CO
Agrees with the Upshot poll of NC
Ohio is the closest state, within a point either way
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matthew27
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« Reply #777 on: November 07, 2016, 06:33:00 pm »

Feeling a lot better about Colorado and PA with this data.
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Hammy
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« Reply #778 on: November 07, 2016, 06:52:48 pm »

Are the PPP numbers polls are predictions?
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #779 on: November 07, 2016, 06:55:04 pm »

Are the PPP numbers polls are predictions?
I think so?
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Snek!
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« Reply #780 on: November 07, 2016, 07:00:37 pm »

Feeling a lot better about Colorado and PA with this data.
If either one is lost or uncertain, there will be crow for Thanksgiving AND Christmas here!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #781 on: November 07, 2016, 10:21:47 pm »

John Heilmann on WADR says that the Clinton team says their internals "bottomed out" last Wednesday following the Comey letter with the race getting "tight" and since then things have improved with some "breathing room"

b-b-ut I thought the Comey letter had no effect!
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RalstonSucks
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« Reply #782 on: November 07, 2016, 11:34:24 pm »

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/795818400320724993

Two senior PA Dems - 1 of them named Ed Rendell - tell me they expect Hillary to only win PA by 2 1/2 to 3.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #783 on: November 07, 2016, 11:35:43 pm »

Not good for Mcginty
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IceSpear
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« Reply #784 on: November 07, 2016, 11:56:21 pm »

You guys know Rendell concern trolls about PA literally every election, right? It's even a running joke among PA politicos. Here's just two examples:

Quote
Democrats say they remain confident, but there are clear undercurrents of concern. Governor Rendell and party officials have asked Obama to spend more time in the state to counter the McCain offensive

Quote
McCain McMentum?

Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell wants Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., back in the Keystone State. He's worried Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., could still pull off a victory there.

"I dont want to be selfish, Rendell told CNN. But Im still a little nervous, so I have asked Obama to come back. We understand hes got demands from 20 different states, but wed like to see him here.

This was a week before the 2008 election. As we all know, Obama won by 11 points.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #785 on: November 08, 2016, 01:43:44 am »

John Heilmann on WADR says that the Clinton team says their internals "bottomed out" last Wednesday following the Comey letter with the race getting "tight" and since then things have improved with some "breathing room"

b-b-ut I thought the Comey letter had no effect!

Tom Jensen of PPP and some other Democratic pollsters on twitter said that the Comey letter had no significant impact on their numbers.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #786 on: November 08, 2016, 08:14:53 am »

For those fretting about MI
https://twitter.com/ericheggie

"Eric Heggie ‏@ericheggie  6h6 hours ago
Some of you may wonder why  @realDonaldTrump will not win Michigan, well let me lay out why from both public and some internal data 1/?"

"So first is the public data, in last weeks Fox 2 Detroit poll Trump was losing over 65 year olds by double digits to Clinton, which... 2/?"

"matches what we are seeing internally.  He's losing them BIGLY. You can't win MI as an R while losing over 65 year olds. Now for the 3/?"

"Internal info. We have over 160K hard IDs in MI.  Our last persuasion pass was Friday and we were talking to a very bad universe for us 4/?"

"If a Republican is going to win MI they should be winning that universe, but anyone want to take a guess how late Undecideds/R's moved? 6/x"

"Clinton won that universe by 5 pts, which she should not be doing if Trump has any hope of winning in Michigan. #MAGA ain't happening. 7/7"

"Eric Heggie ‏@ericheggie  6h6 hours ago
.@jcpolls I think she wins it closer to 8.  Around what Obama did."

"Eric Heggie ‏@ericheggie  6h6 hours ago
.@akaashkolluri no we are not. All the polls show her winning Michigan. Data from the field shows it too."
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #787 on: November 08, 2016, 10:39:08 am »

David Plouffe final call (Obama 2008 mastermind)

Clinton 50 / Trump 44

Clinton 342 EV's , Obama 2012 states, plus NC and NE-2, possibly 348 with Iowa
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heatcharger
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« Reply #788 on: November 08, 2016, 10:48:55 am »

David Plouffe final call (Obama 2008 mastermind)

Clinton 50 / Trump 44

Clinton 342 EV's , Obama 2012 states, plus NC and NE-2, possibly 348 with Iowa

That's basically my call give or take NE-2.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #789 on: November 08, 2016, 11:57:45 am »

David Plouffe final call (Obama 2008 mastermind)

Clinton 50 / Trump 44

Clinton 342 EV's , Obama 2012 states, plus NC and NE-2, possibly 348 with Iowa

I wish I had his confidence pills he seems to be popping nonstop.
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Snek!
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #790 on: November 08, 2016, 12:03:05 pm »

David Plouffe final call (Obama 2008 mastermind)

Clinton 50 / Trump 44

Clinton 342 EV's , Obama 2012 states, plus NC and NE-2, possibly 348 with Iowa

I wish I had his confidence pills he seems to be popping nonstop.

If you do a Rule of Four, it will probably be like Clinton 48, Trump 46 and basically New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and maybe Colorado by the skin of her teeth while eventually losing Florida and North Carolina between 1 and 2.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #791 on: November 08, 2016, 12:08:49 pm »

David Plouffe final call (Obama 2008 mastermind)

Clinton 50 / Trump 44

Clinton 342 EV's , Obama 2012 states, plus NC and NE-2, possibly 348 with Iowa

I wish I had his confidence pills he seems to be popping nonstop.

If you do a Rule of Four, it will probably be like Clinton 48, Trump 46 and basically New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and maybe Colorado by the skin of her teeth while eventually losing Florida and North Carolina between 1 and 2.
Or Clinton by 10.
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marty
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« Reply #792 on: November 19, 2016, 10:53:19 pm »

This thread is hilarious .
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Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #793 on: November 20, 2016, 09:02:08 am »

For those fretting about MI
https://twitter.com/ericheggie

"Eric Heggie ‏@ericheggie  6h6 hours ago
Some of you may wonder why  @realDonaldTrump will not win Michigan, well let me lay out why from both public and some internal data 1/?"

"So first is the public data, in last weeks Fox 2 Detroit poll Trump was losing over 65 year olds by double digits to Clinton, which... 2/?"

"matches what we are seeing internally.  He's losing them BIGLY. You can't win MI as an R while losing over 65 year olds. Now for the 3/?"

"Internal info. We have over 160K hard IDs in MI.  Our last persuasion pass was Friday and we were talking to a very bad universe for us 4/?"

"If a Republican is going to win MI they should be winning that universe, but anyone want to take a guess how late Undecideds/R's moved? 6/x"

"Clinton won that universe by 5 pts, which she should not be doing if Trump has any hope of winning in Michigan. #MAGA ain't happening. 7/7"

"Eric Heggie ‏@ericheggie  6h6 hours ago
.@jcpolls I think she wins it closer to 8.  Around what Obama did."

"Eric Heggie ‏@ericheggie  6h6 hours ago
.@akaashkolluri no we are not. All the polls show her winning Michigan. Data from the field shows it too."

Sad
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