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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 61170 times)
Alcon
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« on: October 16, 2016, 06:08:53 pm »

Lake Research (D) finds Trump +1 on behalf of the Alaska Democratic Party, 500 likely voters

http://midnightsunak.com/2016/10/16/midnight-sun-exclusive-new-poll-shows-trump-clinton-tied-alaska/

Trump 37% (-1)
Clinton 36% (+6)
Johnson 7% (-4)
Stein 3% (+1)

Results as compared to 8/9-14
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Alcon
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2016, 08:33:38 pm »

Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, said Hillary has "100%" chance of winning. Democrat internals are very data-analytic so their words should be weighted heavily even if biased.

I don't think anyone should be taken seriously when they project a 100% chance to win a swing state.
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Alcon
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2016, 08:38:09 pm »

Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, said Hillary has "100%" chance of winning. Democrat internals are very data-analytic so their words should be weighted heavily even if biased.

I don't think anyone should be taken seriously when they project a 100% chance to win a swing state.

He isn't talking about a swing state, he talking about the election in general.

Fair enough, but even if he's not talking about Florida, 100% still seems like hyperbole to me.
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