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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 59696 times)
Bevinevitable
IceSpear
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E: -4.65, S: -5.70

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« on: July 18, 2016, 12:24:53 am »

Quote
Donald Trump may be winning converts from an unlikely source Democrats a new unpublished poll shows.

And I have an unpublished poll showing Hillary winning Alabama.
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Bevinevitable
IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2016, 07:23:49 pm »

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)

Gonna piggyback off this

Mr. Todd said this morning on MSNBC that the polls next week look to be getting worse for Trump. He also mentioned an upcoming poll showing Clinton leading in a solid R state, recalling the weird polls from Utah
Any link?

Was he referring to that Georgia poll?
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Bevinevitable
IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2016, 02:34:32 pm »

No, Trump will win Indiana by 30+ points because he picked beloved Hoosier demigod Mike Pence as his running mate. Even Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia would flip before Indiana voted against Mike Pence. Atlas told me so!
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Bevinevitable
IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2016, 02:52:59 pm »

Trump is in trouble everywhere, so of course he's also undeperforming in IN. I doubt it has anything to do with Pence, lol.

Yeah, I agree. I doubt Pence hurt or helped. Most likely he had no effect, which would be consistent with his middling approval rating and the tough fight for re-election he was going to have.
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Bevinevitable
IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2016, 07:44:55 pm »

Publicly released internals are usually junk meant to set a narrative. The private ones are meant to be good, otherwise they wouldn't be hiring them.
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Bevinevitable
IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2016, 12:58:55 pm »

Quote
Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  6m6 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL
Steve Schale Retweeted John Harwood
I've seen some HRC/DJT numbers in Florida bellwether down ballot districts that are shocking. Margins that are hard to get head around.

You'd think at least one Florida poll would've captured this if it was true. Clinton up 4 is definitely great for a state like Florida, but from the hyperbolic tone of that tweet you'd think it meant she was up double digits there or something. Unless said swing districts are being offset in safe districts.
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Bevinevitable
IceSpear
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Posts: 30,562
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Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2016, 01:55:10 pm »

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.
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Bevinevitable
IceSpear
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E: -4.65, S: -5.70

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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2016, 09:05:28 pm »

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.

You seem to girding your loins for some kind of crash ... which I just don't think is going to happen.

I don't know if I'd use the word "crash", but I do expect her to take a significant hit in the averages once the next batch of post email polls are dropped. We'll see soon enough. Hopefully you're right and I'm not.
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Bevinevitable
IceSpear
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E: -4.65, S: -5.70

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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2016, 02:54:55 am »

Here's a somewhat cryptic tweet from PPP:

Quote
I don't think Hillary is going to lose, but is it scarier than a week or two ago? Sure.
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Bevinevitable
IceSpear
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Posts: 30,562
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E: -4.65, S: -5.70

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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2016, 11:17:11 pm »

Each side nervous about NC, could be a close one.

@jmartNYT  49s50 seconds ago

Talked to a smart NC R who thinks Hillary squeaks it out there. 

But Dems nervous, coulda used another day of early voting today.

If the presidential ends up being a squeaker, it bodes well for Cooper and Burr.
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Bevinevitable
IceSpear
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Posts: 30,562
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Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

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« Reply #10 on: November 07, 2016, 10:21:47 pm »

John Heilmann on WADR says that the Clinton team says their internals "bottomed out" last Wednesday following the Comey letter with the race getting "tight" and since then things have improved with some "breathing room"

b-b-ut I thought the Comey letter had no effect!
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Bevinevitable
IceSpear
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Posts: 30,562
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Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

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« Reply #11 on: November 07, 2016, 11:56:21 pm »

You guys know Rendell concern trolls about PA literally every election, right? It's even a running joke among PA politicos. Here's just two examples:

Quote
Democrats say they remain confident, but there are clear undercurrents of concern. Governor Rendell and party officials have asked Obama to spend more time in the state to counter the McCain offensive

Quote
McCain McMentum?

Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell wants Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., back in the Keystone State. He's worried Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., could still pull off a victory there.

"I dont want to be selfish, Rendell told CNN. But Im still a little nervous, so I have asked Obama to come back. We understand hes got demands from 20 different states, but wed like to see him here.

This was a week before the 2008 election. As we all know, Obama won by 11 points.
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