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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 60499 times)
Castro
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« on: August 11, 2016, 01:04:34 pm »

Clinton +6 in KS-03

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  15m15 minutes ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted Scott Bland
Clinton probably comfortable ahead in NE-2 if this is right
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Castro
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« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2016, 02:25:48 pm »

A Gregg internal shows Trump and Clinton tied at 44% in Indiana.

https://twitter.com/hwypol/status/764497782677790720

Ugh you literally beat me by 1 second.
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Castro
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« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2016, 02:16:40 pm »

538 has more details on this Indiana poll. The pollster is called "Expedition Strategies", was taken over August 1-3, included 600 Likely Voters, and was adjusted to a 1 point lead for Clinton in the 538 polls-only model and a 1 point lead for Trump in the polls-plus model.
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Castro
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« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2016, 05:51:23 pm »

Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.
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Castro
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2016, 09:39:27 am »

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Please please please let this be true.
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Castro
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2016, 10:07:56 am »

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Holcomb and Young are so done if this is true.

would be hard to see toomey and ayotte overcome this drag on the top of the ticket as well
With Heck not supporting Drumpf and Ayotte and Toomey swimming upstream, does this mean SML Schumer?

Yes.
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Castro
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2016, 10:24:48 am »

I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.

From what I understand about the psychology of polling, you want your party members to think things are close but not doomed. Too large a deficit and people could get demoralized.
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Castro
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2016, 06:50:58 pm »

Quote
But it was not until after a video surfaced Oct. 7 showing Trump bragging in a 2005 “Access Hollywood” interview about sexually assaulting women that Clinton’s advisers decided to make late investments.

Private polls reviewed by Clinton strategists showed Democratic Senate and gubernatorial candidates rising in Indiana and Missouri. The Clinton team concluded that in Missouri, for instance, a well-funded ground game to turn out African Americans could be the deciding factor.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/buoyed-by-rising-polls-clinton-shifts-to-a-new-target-the-house-and-senate/2016/10/22/9c717070-97c3-11e6-bb29-bf2701dbe0a3_story.html
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Castro
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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2016, 05:13:54 pm »

John HarwoodVerified account
‏@JohnJHarwood
top GOP pollster: "What we're seeing is Johnson and Stein trending down, and going to Clinton."
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Castro
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2016, 10:12:17 am »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 10:27:22 am by Castro »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY
top GOP pollster on Bloomberg Poll showing Trump +2 in FL: "such an outlier, I'm not going to believe it until confirmed by other surveys"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
second top GOP pollster on Bloomberg's +2 Trump poll in FL: "not correct"
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Castro
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2016, 10:19:36 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  10m10 minutes ago
GOP Senate strategist on Roy Blunt's precarious fate in MO: "1% race. think he wins"
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Castro
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2016, 07:50:46 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  8m8 minutes ago
top D pollster: "changes incredibly exaggerated. some tightening. Trump fav better"

top R pollster: "some narrowing, not that significant"
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Castro
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2016, 08:10:21 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago
GOP pollster #2: as since March, Trump in 38%-42% range, Clinton 44%-48%. currently Trump in middle, Clinton in upper half. margin 6-7 pts
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Castro
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2016, 08:40:26 am »

Republican pollster North Star Opinion Research finds Don Bacon (R) leading Rep. Brad Ashford (D) 48-44 in NE-2:

Quote
Republican polling shows the party's chances improving in Nebraska's 2nd District, one of the GOP's three top opportunities to knock off a Democratic incumbent this year.

Retired Brig. Gen. Don Bacon led incumbent Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford 48 to 44 percent among registered voters in a North Star Opinion Research poll, shared first with Roll Call. The poll was conducted Oct. 22-24 for the Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC tied to House GOP leadership. The fund has invested $950,000 on TV and digital in the Omaha-based district.

Trump also leads Clinton by 4 points:

Quote
In the presidential race, Republican Donald Trump led Democratic rival Hillary Clinton 44 to 40 percent in the district, with 8 percent supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2 percent backing the Green Party's Jill Stein.

I'd say this is pretty good for Clinton considering it's a Republican internal with her trailing by as much as Ashford.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gop-poll-gives-don-bacon-late-edge-rare-pickup-opportunity-nebraska-brad-ashford-house?utm_content=buffer72397&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
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Castro
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2016, 10:48:50 am »

@JohnJHarwood  5s6 seconds ago


top GOP pollster: "Trump recovering, not enough to dig out of hole. superior HRC data/digital/GOTV too much to overcome. GOP holds Senate."



https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793470712287748097

This top GOP pollster might be Tony Fabrizio, who linked to Harwood's tweet and said:

Tony Fabrizio
‏@TonyFabrizioGOP Tony Fabrizio Retweeted John Harwood
What if the turnout models are wrong and turnout looks more like 2014 than it does 2012?
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Castro
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2016, 07:45:00 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  18m18 minutes ago
top GOP pollster: "Johnson continuing to trend down.  Clinton holding steady lead of about 5 points"


How many "top GOP pollsters" does Harwood know? Not everyone can be a top pollster.
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Castro
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2016, 07:52:34 am »

More top men. Who? TOP. MEN.

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  7m7 minutes ago
top Dem pollster on Clinton edge: "could get tighter because partisanship such a driver of vote choice, but she's holding steady"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago
non-partisan pollster on Clinton lead: "data says 6 and steady"
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Castro
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2016, 04:30:34 pm »

Apparently Kellyanne Conway said on CNN just now that Trump's internals have him down 4 points in PA.

Wow, the election is so rigged that even Trump internals are rigged now.
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Castro
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« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2016, 08:11:41 am »

If Iowa can trend so far right in one cycle, it's not crazy to think Arizona can trend so far left at the same time. Arizona could even be to the left of Iowa.
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Castro
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2016, 12:39:51 pm »

@GlennThrush

Trump wants to win. But two people in his orbit have told me in last week that decisively beating Romney's 206 EVs is increasingly a goal.

Hmm if they're under 206, they're likely behind in Ohio or Arizona.
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Castro
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2016, 03:53:18 pm »

Not really an internal, though maybe Plouffe has access to internal numbers:

David PlouffeVerified account
‏@davidplouffe
Four years ago. 332 electoral votes. HRC well north of 300 in two days.
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Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2016, 09:20:25 am »

"John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago
Priebus on Michigan: "we’ve invested over $100M in data. track race far better than any polling. predictive modeling tells us it's tied""

Lol ok Reince. You're almost done, don't worry.

Also:
Glenn Thrush ‏@GlennThrush  1m1 minute ago
Podesta tells @chucktodd he feels "very, very good" about Hispanic turnout in Nevada/Fla compensating for sag in AA early voting
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Castro
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« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2016, 10:27:06 am »

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/795267630877777920

.@jeffzeleny reports on @CNN Obama was itching to make 1 final trip to Iowa, which started it all, but was told it was gone. So: Ann Arbor Michigan

Disappointing, but I guess better to lock down the blue wall than make a last ditch effort to keep Iowa in.
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Castro
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2016, 09:13:42 pm »

Tom Bentley
‏@thomaswmbentley
@ppppolls Do you guys think the same person is gonna win NC and FL?

PublicPolicyPollingVerified account
‏@ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling Retweeted Tom Bentley
Think Hillary will win both but more confident about Florida
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Castro
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« Reply #24 on: November 07, 2016, 03:12:23 pm »

Charles GasparinoVerified account
‏@CGasparino
#BreakingPoll  @realDonaldTrump camp internal polls have him down 2 in Fla; plus 1 in NV; up 2 in NH more now @FoxBusiness

Uhhhh...didn't they fire their pollster?
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