Internal poll megathread

[swf541]

Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents — a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.

At the end of the article it says that they purposely over-sampled Hispanics

Oversample generally means they poll more of a subgroup to get a lower margin of error, but their share of the vote is not overstated. For example, a national poll of 400 might only get 50 Hispanics to respond, which is a huge margin of error. So they could additionally focus poll 200 Hispanics, use the R/D split, and then fit it back to the 50/400.

You are such a hackish poster. And you absolutely work for the HRC campaign.

This may be the least self aware post I have ever seen, congratulations

[swf541]

The poll was conducted Sep.6/7, so before the whole "basket of deplorables"/pneumonia thing.

Well taking into account the new PA poll, seems the last week didnt change much of anything in PA

[swf541]

Trump +8 in Missouri in an internal poll for Republican gubernatorial candidate Eric Greitens by the Tarrance Group:

Trump 46%
Clinton 38%

September 19-22; MoE +/- 4.1.

Koster is up by 3 in the governor's race.

Thats rather low for an internal

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Murkoswki internal has Trump only +3

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/MichaelLaRosaDC/status/785315386111721472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Schmidt on Senate numbers from GOP internals......

[swf541]

The Senate numbers are probably actually worse than that.

It really feels like the right is trying to push this message that their Senate candidates are hanging on, which makes me think that it's starting to slip away.

Very much so

[swf541]

Senate republicans have shared internal polls to the National Review and some of the results are interesting

According to these polls
Clinton +14 in NH
Clinton +11 in PA
Clinton nar­rowly beats Trump in AZ
Trump +2 in MO

And senate

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What are your thoughts? Belieavable?

Question is, will NH and PA be called at poll closing? If they are, we know what type of night it's going to be.

For President, probably both will be called immediately.  For Senate, neither.

Probably,  bigger question is do the senate races get classified as too early to call or too close to call

[swf541]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/early-voting-women-battleground-states-230176

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Basically confirming the recent Georgia polls we've seen.

Yea, there is a reason Dems arent going into Georgia like Arizona

[swf541]

Who else thinks that "internal" is the crappy university poll out today?

[swf541]

Peter Alexander ‏@PeterAlexander
NEW: Trump top aide says their internals show Michigan a dead heat. Looking to add Trump MI stop Mon or Tues in addition to Sun rally there"

Ah yes, Trump's non existent internal polling

[swf541]

Peter Alexander ‏@PeterAlexander
NEW: Trump top aide says their internals show Michigan a dead heat. Looking to add Trump MI stop Mon or Tues in addition to Sun rally there"

Ah yes, Trump's non existent internal polling

I bet they're talking about that Strategic Vision junk poll which might as well function as an internal.

Probably

[swf541]

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  6m6 minutes ago
senior GOP Senate strategist #2: lose IL/WI/NV/PA/NC. Win OH/NH/FL/IN. win MO by an eyelash (but wouldn't surprise me if Kander won). 50-50

Surprising to see them more bearish on NC than MO and NH.

Yea, thats quite suprising, there pessimism on missouri is interesting as well. 

[swf541]

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  6m6 minutes ago
senior GOP Senate strategist #2: lose IL/WI/NV/PA/NC. Win OH/NH/FL/IN. win MO by an eyelash (but wouldn't surprise me if Kander won). 50-50

Surprising to see them more bearish on NC than MO and NH.

Yea, thats quite suprising, there pessimism on missouri is interesting as well.  

Not really. Roy Blunt is probably the underdog in this race and has run a hilariously incompetent campaign.

NC is definitely a surprise, though.

I'm aware of Blunt's campaign I just find it suprising how much Kander will outperform Clinton in MO