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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 60533 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: July 22, 2016, 09:07:06 pm »

The numbers for the presidential race seem plausible.
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« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2016, 02:50:04 pm »

Trump is in trouble everywhere, so of course he's also undeperforming in IN. I doubt it has anything to do with Pence, lol.
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« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2016, 09:23:44 pm »

A poll conductd by Rick Scott's Super PAC shows Clinton and Trump tied in Ohio, 45-45.

Quote
Scott is the head of the Rebuilding America Now PAC, which—in conjunction with pollsters from On Message, Inc.—conducted a battleground survey in the state of Ohio. The survey of 600 likely voters from August 13 to August 17, with a margin of error of 4 percent, shows Trump tied with Clinton at 45 percent apiece with 10 percent undecided in a two-way race. In the four-way race with Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein included, Trump and Clinton are still tied at 42 percent, while Johnson gets 8 percent and Stein just 2 percent—with 6 percent undecided.

Link.
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2016, 05:11:24 am »

Same poll shows Feingold with an 18-point lead over Johnson. Junk.

I think I'd take Marquette and Monmouth over "Global Strategy Group" any day of the week.
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« Reply #4 on: September 08, 2016, 07:16:06 pm »

Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.
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« Reply #5 on: September 08, 2016, 07:37:00 pm »

Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.
To my mind, there are three probable explanations:

1. The media wants a horse race, and are tweaking their methodologies/sampling to aid the narrative
2. The GOP wants a sense of panic among organizers (and/or donors), and is tweaking their polling in turn
3. Random noise (given how consistent the pattern is, though, this seems pretty unlikely)

Agreed, and I think #2 is the most likely explanation. No way every big pollster is "rigging" the numbers.
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IndyRep
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« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2016, 02:18:13 pm »

The poll was conducted Sep.6/7, so before the whole "basket of deplorables"/pneumonia thing.
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« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2016, 09:50:14 pm »

The poll was conducted Sep.6/7, so before the whole "basket of deplorables"/pneumonia thing.

Well taking into account the new PA poll, seems the last week didnt change much of anything in PA

True. Terrible news for Trump.
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2016, 11:16:20 pm »

WV, Just Win Strategies (R):

57% Trump (R)
30% Clinton (D)

http://wvmetronews.com/2016/09/19/gop-poll-shows-tight-gubernatorial-race-much-closer-than-metronews-west-virginia-poll/
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« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2016, 11:30:57 am »

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/dccc-poll-clinton-rosen-up-in-swing-district
Nevada's 3rd congressional district

The survey, taken this week of 458 likely voters and with a 4.5 percent margin of error, shows Clinton up 46-38 over Donald Trump, with Gary Johnson garnering 10 percent of the vote. (Clinton is up 5 in a two-way.)

President Obama won the district by 1 point in 2012 and 9 points in 2008.

Interesting how they didn't release the Senate race numbers. Not a good sign for Cortez-Masto.
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« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2016, 05:06:49 pm »

House internals don't usually poll senate candidate, so this isn't exactly surprising.

Yeah, but in this case they polled the Senate race (Question 6), but for some reason refused to release the numbers. Strange, but it's Joe Heck's district after all.
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« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2016, 02:30:09 pm »

Hmmm.. ME-02 should definitely be a Tossup IMO.
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« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2016, 03:47:50 pm »

John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704

If NH is in his path to 270, then he has no path.
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« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2016, 02:29:12 pm »

Mark Kirk internal poll has Clinton up 17 in Illinois (50-33):

https://de.scribd.com/document/326741685/Mark-Kirk-s-internal-polling
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« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2016, 08:10:53 pm »

All these internal polls are showing a 1964-style landslide. Interesting.
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« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2016, 02:42:08 pm »

Clinton will win definitely East Vermont/NH by more than 10. A 14-point lead is very plausible.
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2016, 04:31:50 pm »

gop operative from NH claims great homecoming, fast closing gap
https://mobile.twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/793855147252285444

Lmao. No Republican was going to beat Clinton in NH. The state is as safe D as you can get.
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IndyRep
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« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2016, 09:58:36 pm »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  6m6 minutes ago
senior GOP Senate strategist #2: lose IL/WI/NV/PA/NC. Win OH/NH/FL/IN. win MO by an eyelash (but wouldn't surprise me if Kander won). 50-50

Surprising to see them more bearish on NC than MO and NH.
Yea, thats quite suprising, there pessimism on missouri is interesting as well.  

Not really. Roy Blunt is probably the underdog in this race and has run a hilariously incompetent campaign.

NC is definitely a surprise, though.
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