Internal poll megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 96287 times)
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« on: July 18, 2016, 08:30:53 PM »
DSCC internal had Trump +5  in Indiana.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2016, 02:36:33 PM »
Gregg is +7 in the internal ftr.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #2 on: September 05, 2016, 09:19:15 PM »
Internal poll for EDF Action and LCV Victory Fund.

Clinton: 47(+2 from July)
Trump: 35(-3 from July)

https://www.scribd.com/document/322753969/WI-Sen-Pres-GSG-for-LCV-Sept-2016
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2016, 12:29:06 PM »
I mean, he literally just explained what an oversample was and how it is reweighted so as to not impact the topline numbers, but I guess you are content with your ignorance.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2016, 02:56:47 PM »
Quote from: Little Big Adorable on September 16, 2016, 01:38:07 PM
Public polls obviously are junk. Internals, they are good. If they wasn't why would Hillary hire them. Right?
This particular poll was paid for by the Patrick Murphy campaign but I don't think you are particularly concerned with reality.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2016, 03:57:29 PM »
Clinton +6 in CA-49 (Issa's district). Obama won it very narrowly in 2008, and lost in 52 to 46 in 2012 to Mitt Romney.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2016, 05:00:47 PM »
Quote from: Governor Horseface on September 30, 2016, 11:30:57 AM
Quote from: HillOfANight on September 30, 2016, 11:27:22 AM
http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/dccc-poll-clinton-rosen-up-in-swing-district
Nevada's 3rd congressional district

The survey, taken this week of 458 likely voters and with a 4.5 percent margin of error, shows Clinton up 46-38 over Donald Trump, with Gary Johnson garnering 10 percent of the vote. (Clinton is up 5 in a two-way.)

President Obama won the district by 1 point in 2012 and 9 points in 2008.

Interesting how they didn't release the Senate race numbers. Not a good sign for Cortez-Masto.

House internals don't usually poll senate candidate, so this isn't exactly surprising.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2016, 05:04:17 PM »
https://www.scribd.com/document/325976866/IL-10-Normington-Petts-for-Brad-Schneider-Sept-2016

Clinton leads Trump 59 to 32 in IL-10, Dold's district. Way above Obama's 16 point margin in 2012 and similar to his 26 point margin in 2008. Schneider is ahead of Dold by 5, 46 to 41.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2016, 01:43:55 PM »
Clinton ahead by 2 in GOP internal of IA-01.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326394011/IA-01-The-Polling-Company-for-Rod-Blum-Oct-2016
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2016, 03:28:31 PM »
Clinton +7 in NJ-05 in Democratic internal. Obama lost it by 4 in 2012 and 2 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326407714/NJ-05-GYH-for-HMP-Oct-2016
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2016, 12:33:52 PM »
Democratic Internal has Clinton +4 in ME-02.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326519491/ME-02-Normington-Petts-for-Emily-Cain-Oct-2016

Republican Internal has Clinton +4 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 in 2008 and 4 in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326523708/CA-07-Public-Opinion-Strategies-for-Scott-Jones-and-the-NRCC-Oct-2016
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2016, 01:04:52 PM »
Clinton +14 in Democratic Internal of CA-49. Romney won it by 6 in 2012 and Obama won it by 1 in 2008. Applegate leads Issa by 4. Clinton is almost certainly going to win OC if these numbers are close to true.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326641168/CA-49-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2016, 03:44:52 PM »
Pennsylvania not even mentioned!
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2016, 03:53:54 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 06, 2016, 03:51:29 PM
Remember, Trump campaign's pollster is the McLaughlin guy who showed Eric Cantor cruising for reelection.
Nah, that is just his New York pollster. His real pollster is Tony Fabrizio iirc.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2016, 04:28:25 PM »
Quote from: BoAtlantis on October 06, 2016, 04:23:24 PM
Does anyone know if internal polling is more accurate than public polls?

I'd imagine so since they use voter registration files and go by vote history rather than people that claim they're likely to vote. Public polls I imagine understate Democrat voters who tell pollsters they're unsure of voting but end up voting anyway.
Obama's internals were very accurate in 2012, while Romney's were horribly off.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #15 on: October 09, 2016, 03:53:14 PM »
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/785179324873895939
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #16 on: October 09, 2016, 05:38:35 PM »
Quote from: rafta_rafta on October 09, 2016, 05:33:57 PM
Is PPP the democratic internal poll? The twitter accounts seems quite partisan
Their polling is considered very good, and they are commissioned to do internals for quite a few campaigns.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2016, 10:55:37 AM »
https://www.scribd.com/document/327883693/CA-07-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +17 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 points in 2008 and 4 points in 2012. Woah if true.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2016, 01:19:07 AM »
Yeah looks like the GOP is operating on really bad internals all over again. I guess they didn't learn anything from 2012.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2016, 01:03:13 PM »
The Senate numbers are probably actually worse than that.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2016, 05:26:27 PM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on October 18, 2016, 05:24:33 PM
Got a fundraising email from Johnson today. One section of interest:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

lol
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2016, 06:35:15 PM »
Clinton +10 in John Mica's district, FL-07. Mica's challenger is ahead by 3. The district was tied in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328067269/FL-07-GSG-and-Lester-for-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +4 in PA-16, which Obama lost by 6 in 2012. Open seat, the GOP candidate is 3 ahead of the Dem candidate. Possible pickup opportunity.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328056923/PA-16-GBA-for-Christina-Hartman-Oct-2016
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #22 on: October 20, 2016, 02:42:39 PM »
Clinton +5 in CA-25, which Obama lost by 2 in 2012. Steven Knight's challenger is only 2 points behind.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328309922/CA-25-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #23 on: October 24, 2016, 12:24:58 AM »
Quote from: ExtremeRepublican on October 23, 2016, 11:57:45 PM
Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

Those are junk Reuters polls.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #24 on: October 24, 2016, 05:08:32 PM »
Internal for Shelli Yoder in IN-09 has Trump +10. Romney won it by 17 in 2012, McCain by 9 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328736169/IN-09-Garin-Hart-Yang-for-Shelli-Yoder-Oct-2016
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