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  Internal poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 63918 times)
Ebsy
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« on: July 18, 2016, 08:30:53 pm »

DSCC internal had Trump +5  in Indiana.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2016, 02:36:33 pm »

Gregg is +7 in the internal ftr.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #2 on: September 05, 2016, 09:19:15 pm »

Internal poll for EDF Action and LCV Victory Fund.

Clinton: 47(+2 from July)
Trump: 35(-3 from July)

https://www.scribd.com/document/322753969/WI-Sen-Pres-GSG-for-LCV-Sept-2016
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2016, 12:29:06 pm »

I mean, he literally just explained what an oversample was and how it is reweighted so as to not impact the topline numbers, but I guess you are content with your ignorance.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2016, 02:56:47 pm »

Public polls obviously are junk. Internals, they are good. If they wasn't why would Hillary hire them. Right?
This particular poll was paid for by the Patrick Murphy campaign but I don't think you are particularly concerned with reality.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2016, 03:57:29 pm »

Clinton +6 in CA-49 (Issa's district). Obama won it very narrowly in 2008, and lost in 52 to 46 in 2012 to Mitt Romney.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2016, 05:00:47 pm »

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/dccc-poll-clinton-rosen-up-in-swing-district
Nevada's 3rd congressional district

The survey, taken this week of 458 likely voters and with a 4.5 percent margin of error, shows Clinton up 46-38 over Donald Trump, with Gary Johnson garnering 10 percent of the vote. (Clinton is up 5 in a two-way.)

President Obama won the district by 1 point in 2012 and 9 points in 2008.

Interesting how they didn't release the Senate race numbers. Not a good sign for Cortez-Masto.

House internals don't usually poll senate candidate, so this isn't exactly surprising.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2016, 05:04:17 pm »

https://www.scribd.com/document/325976866/IL-10-Normington-Petts-for-Brad-Schneider-Sept-2016

Clinton leads Trump 59 to 32 in IL-10, Dold's district. Way above Obama's 16 point margin in 2012 and similar to his 26 point margin in 2008. Schneider is ahead of Dold by 5, 46 to 41.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2016, 01:43:55 pm »

Clinton ahead by 2 in GOP internal of IA-01.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326394011/IA-01-The-Polling-Company-for-Rod-Blum-Oct-2016
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Ebsy
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« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2016, 03:28:31 pm »

Clinton +7 in NJ-05 in Democratic internal. Obama lost it by 4 in 2012 and 2 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326407714/NJ-05-GYH-for-HMP-Oct-2016

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Ebsy
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2016, 12:33:52 pm »

Democratic Internal has Clinton +4 in ME-02.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326519491/ME-02-Normington-Petts-for-Emily-Cain-Oct-2016

Republican Internal has Clinton +4 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 in 2008 and 4 in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326523708/CA-07-Public-Opinion-Strategies-for-Scott-Jones-and-the-NRCC-Oct-2016
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Ebsy
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« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2016, 01:04:52 pm »

Clinton +14 in Democratic Internal of CA-49. Romney won it by 6 in 2012 and Obama won it by 1 in 2008. Applegate leads Issa by 4. Clinton is almost certainly going to win OC if these numbers are close to true.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326641168/CA-49-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016
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Ebsy
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« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2016, 03:44:52 pm »

Pennsylvania not even mentioned!
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Ebsy
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« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2016, 03:53:54 pm »

Remember, Trump campaign's pollster is the McLaughlin guy who showed Eric Cantor cruising for reelection.
Nah, that is just his New York pollster. His real pollster is Tony Fabrizio iirc.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2016, 04:28:25 pm »

Does anyone know if internal polling is more accurate than public polls?

I'd imagine so since they use voter registration files and go by vote history rather than people that claim they're likely to vote. Public polls I imagine understate Democrat voters who tell pollsters they're unsure of voting but end up voting anyway.
Obama's internals were very accurate in 2012, while Romney's were horribly off.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #15 on: October 09, 2016, 03:53:14 pm »

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/785179324873895939

Image Link
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Ebsy
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« Reply #16 on: October 09, 2016, 05:38:35 pm »

Is PPP the democratic internal poll? The twitter accounts seems quite partisan
Their polling is considered very good, and they are commissioned to do internals for quite a few campaigns.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2016, 10:55:37 am »

https://www.scribd.com/document/327883693/CA-07-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +17 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 points in 2008 and 4 points in 2012. Woah if true.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2016, 01:19:07 am »

Yeah looks like the GOP is operating on really bad internals all over again. I guess they didn't learn anything from 2012.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2016, 01:03:13 pm »

The Senate numbers are probably actually worse than that.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2016, 05:26:27 pm »

Got a fundraising email from Johnson today. One section of interest:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

lol
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Ebsy
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« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2016, 06:35:15 pm »

Clinton +10 in John Mica's district, FL-07. Mica's challenger is ahead by 3. The district was tied in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328067269/FL-07-GSG-and-Lester-for-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +4 in PA-16, which Obama lost by 6 in 2012. Open seat, the GOP candidate is 3 ahead of the Dem candidate. Possible pickup opportunity.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328056923/PA-16-GBA-for-Christina-Hartman-Oct-2016
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Ebsy
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« Reply #22 on: October 20, 2016, 02:42:39 pm »

Clinton +5 in CA-25, which Obama lost by 2 in 2012. Steven Knight's challenger is only 2 points behind.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328309922/CA-25-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016
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Ebsy
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« Reply #23 on: October 24, 2016, 12:24:58 am »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

Those are junk Reuters polls.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #24 on: October 24, 2016, 05:08:32 pm »

Internal for Shelli Yoder in IN-09 has Trump +10. Romney won it by 17 in 2012, McCain by 9 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328736169/IN-09-Garin-Hart-Yang-for-Shelli-Yoder-Oct-2016
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