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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 60101 times)
heatcharger
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« on: August 19, 2016, 09:21:36 am »

More on North Carolina: Jonathan Martin in the NYT contacted GOP internal pollsters and found that Trump's position in NC is close to what NBC/WSJ found.

When questioned on the margin, Martin said the Burr and McCrory campaigns told him Trump is down double digits

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/19/us/politics/republicans-worry-a-falling-donald-trump-tide-will-lower-all-boats.html?_r=0

Wow. If Trump is down double digits in GOP internals then Burr and McCrory are dead men walking.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2016, 09:42:25 am »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/john-mccain-is-in-the-fight-of-his-life-in-the-age-of-donald-trump/2016/08/29/1e3168ac-6b11-11e6-99bf-f0cf3a6449a6_story.html

according to McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff, “Trump and Clinton are essentially running even in Arizona.”

Why does it seem like GOP internals are more D-friendly that public polls? In NC we heard Trump was down double digits, but recent polls show it's still pretty close.

If I recall in 2014 GOP internals were actually pretty accurate.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2016, 08:10:01 pm »

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/784559054349799424

Quote
Lisa Murkowski’s campaign just blasted out an internal poll that shows her way ahead but has Trump up only three on Clinton in Alaska

Nonsense. Trump is gonna win by 20 points because Hillary's a bad fit.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2016, 08:29:20 pm »

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/784559054349799424

Quote
Lisa Murkowski’s campaign just blasted out an internal poll that shows her way ahead but has Trump up only three on Clinton in Alaska

Nonsense. Trump is gonna win by 20 points because Hillary's a bad fit.

why is Trump a better fit for Alaska?

I was teasing at a prediction a certain poster with an orange avatar made a while ago. In my opinion, Trump might be an even worse fit for the state than Hillary is.

Now that Trump is collapsing bigly, it could be competitive if the Clinton campaign makes a furious rally for it.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2016, 12:23:58 am »

Link.

As many of you know, Gallup was embarrassed back in 2012 when they had Romney winning by 1, so they stopped officially releasing horserace numbers.

However, they do still poll the question, but it seems that they are hiding the results. It says in the release that they sampled 1033 adults, and subsequently 931 registered voters, and that 444 of those registered voters support Clinton and 407 of them support Trump. Doing the math, that breaks down to:

Clinton - 47.6%
Trump - 43.7%

I already put this in the internal poll thread

My mistake. Thanks.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2016, 10:18:49 pm »

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/788215640721022976

Clinton leads Trump 44-36 in Minnesota's 2nd Cong. District according to SurveyUSA. Obama won this district by .1%.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2016, 06:00:24 pm »

Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2016, 06:17:06 pm »

Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.

Anecdotally: I voted after work today in Forsyth County.  There was no wait, and perhaps a third of the voting machines were occupied.  The poll worker I asked said they'd had a steady stream, but it never got busy enough to require a line.  For comparison, when I voted early in 2012 there was a very long backup (same county, but different location).

Well that's quite interesting. If Trump can't hold Romney's margins in the Atlanta exurbs, then he's probably at risk of losing Gwinnett and maybe Cobb County. There are enough potential Clinton voters to turn the state blue, but it's pretty late in the game to a make serious effort to make it happen.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2016, 09:41:31 am »

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Holcomb and Young are so done if this is true.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2016, 12:52:57 pm »

Quote
Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  6m6 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL
Steve Schale Retweeted John Harwood
I've seen some HRC/DJT numbers in Florida bellwether down ballot districts that are shocking. Margins that are hard to get head around.

Another tweet in response to Murphy's chances to win:

Quote
Steve Schale
‏@steveschale
@trowaman @DemFromCT @JohnJHarwood if he can find some cash, he can win. DSCC pulling out is mindnumbing
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heatcharger
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2016, 07:18:32 pm »

Wasn't the Trump campaign internal polling analysis just a graph of the LA Times poll with some tangent lines drawn?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2016, 01:06:27 pm »

PPP has polled Ohio four times since Labor Day, and each time they've found the race within a point.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2016, 09:04:59 pm »

GOP strategist Mike Murphy foresees a short night due to FL (a growing sentiment elsewhere, I think, too):

@murphymike  5m5 minutes ago

My big prediction: I think she'll win FL quickly; will be clear in early numbers. Then cable news will do a huge 180 on "long night".

It'll look pretty ridiculous is Hillary is leading in the state 51-45 most of the evening but they still don't call it. I'm sure CNN won't to keep people watching.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #13 on: November 08, 2016, 10:48:55 am »

David Plouffe final call (Obama 2008 mastermind)

Clinton 50 / Trump 44

Clinton 342 EV's , Obama 2012 states, plus NC and NE-2, possibly 348 with Iowa

That's basically my call give or take NE-2.
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