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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Internal poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 64545 times)
darthpi
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Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.91

P
« on: August 19, 2016, 11:38:53 am »

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT
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darthpi
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Posts: 1,733
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.91

P
« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2016, 12:04:41 pm »

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.

Marquette had Clinton up by 5% (4 way vote) in the Milwaukee media market, outside of the city of Milwaukee. This includes the WOW counties, but also includes the Milwaukee County suburbs, Racine, Kenosha, Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, Jefferson, and Walworth counties.

Oh, okay, that's at least within the realm of comprehension. Although even that broader area was won by McCain 53-46 in 2008, so Trump is still badly under-performing there.
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darthpi
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Posts: 1,733
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Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.91

P
« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2016, 05:16:02 pm »

https://www.scribd.com/document/327883693/CA-07-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +17 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 points in 2008 and 4 points in 2012. Woah if true.

Did they poll anyone in Folsom? I'm from that district and I'm rather shocked to be honest. +10 for Clinton and +5 for Bera would be what I expected, but this is crazy. Both Bera and Jones have had attack ads put out against them re Jones's sexual harassment issues, Bera's father's illegal fundraising and Bera's support for the Iran deal. It is a decently educated suburban district, so maybe that plays into it? I really haven't seen that many signs for any candidate for president and only a smattering of signs for Jones.

Why do Republicans think that the Iran deal is a silver bullet against Democrats?
Unless there is an abnormal number of Orthodox Jews in the district this seems like a non-issue for most voters.

Because the leadership of the party is still stuck in 1980.
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darthpi
YaBB God
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Posts: 1,733
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.91

P
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2016, 11:43:20 am »

Not sure if "internal" as it's for an advocacy group, but final PPP Poll of WI has Clinton +7, Feingold +5:

https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143856/WIResults112-Final.pdf
Interesting, their 2012 electorate was Obama 51 - Romney 41

That's pretty common, people overestimate supporting the winner.

And yet the people running the LA Times poll couldn't figure that out.
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